Paul H J Kelly

Eduardo D C Carvalho, Ronald Clark, Andrea Nicastro et al.

As Deep Learning continues to yield successful applications in Computer Vision, the ability to quantify all forms of uncertainty is a paramount requirement for its safe and reliable deployment in the real-world. In this work, we leverage the formulation of variational inference in function space, where we associate Gaussian Processes (GPs) to both Bayesian CNN priors and variational family. Since GPs are fully determined by their mean and covariance functions, we are able to obtain predictive uncertainty estimates at the cost of a single forward pass through any chosen CNN architecture and for any supervised learning task. By leveraging the structure of the induced covariance matrices, we propose numerically efficient algorithms which enable fast training in the context of high-dimensional tasks such as depth estimation and semantic segmentation. Additionally, we provide sufficient conditions for constructing regression loss functions whose probabilistic counterparts are compatible with aleatoric uncertainty quantification.

David Birch, Helen Liang, Paul H J Kelly et al.

This paper demonstrates a methodology to help practitioners maximise the utility of complex multidisciplinary engineering models implemented as spreadsheets, an area presenting unique challenges. As motivation we investigate the expanding use of Integrated Resource Management(IRM) models which assess the sustainability of urban masterplan designs. IRM models reflect the inherent complexity of multidisciplinary sustainability analysis by integrating models from many disciplines. This complexity makes their use time-consuming and reduces their adoption. We present a methodology and toolkit for analysing multidisciplinary engineering models implemented as spreadsheets to alleviate such problems and increase their adoption. For a given output a relevant slice of the model is extracted, visualised and analysed by computing model and interdisciplinary metrics. A sensitivity analysis of the extracted model supports engineers in their optimisation efforts. These methods expose, manage and reduce model complexity and risk whilst giving practitioners insight into multidisciplinary model composition. We report application of the methodology to several generations of an industrial IRM model and detail the insight generated, particularly considering model evolution.