Christopher Strohmeier

Hanbaek Lyu, Georg Menz, Deanna Needell et al.

Online nonnegative matrix factorization (ONMF) is a matrix factorization technique in the online setting where data are acquired in a streaming fashion and the matrix factors are updated each time. This enables factor analysis to be performed concurrently with the arrival of new data samples. In this article, we demonstrate how one can use online nonnegative matrix factorization algorithms to learn joint dictionary atoms from an ensemble of correlated data sets. We propose a temporal dictionary learning scheme for time-series data sets, based on ONMF algorithms. We demonstrate our dictionary learning technique in the application contexts of historical temperature data, video frames, and color images.

Hanbaek Lyu, Christopher Strohmeier, Deanna Needell

Online Tensor Factorization (OTF) is a fundamental tool in learning low-dimensional interpretable features from streaming multi-modal data. While various algorithmic and theoretical aspects of OTF have been investigated recently, a general convergence guarantee to stationary points of the objective function without any incoherence or sparsity assumptions is still lacking even for the i.i.d. case. In this work, we introduce a novel algorithm that learns a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) basis from a given stream of tensor-valued data under general constraints, including nonnegativity constraints that induce interpretability of the learned CP basis. We prove that our algorithm converges almost surely to the set of stationary points of the objective function under the hypothesis that the sequence of data tensors is generated by an underlying Markov chain. Our setting covers the classical i.i.d. case as well as a wide range of application contexts including data streams generated by independent or MCMC sampling. Our result closes a gap between OTF and Online Matrix Factorization in global convergence analysis \commHL{for CP-decompositions}. Experimentally, we show that our algorithm converges much faster than standard algorithms for nonnegative tensor factorization tasks on both synthetic and real-world data. Also, we demonstrate the utility of our algorithm on a diverse set of examples from image, video, and time-series data, illustrating how one may learn qualitatively different CP-dictionaries from the same tensor data by exploiting the tensor structure in multiple ways.

Hanbaek Lyu, Christopher Strohmeier, Georg Menz et al.

Predicting the spread and containment of COVID-19 is a challenge of utmost importance that the broader scientific community is currently facing. One of the main sources of difficulty is that a very limited amount of daily COVID-19 case data is available, and with few exceptions, the majority of countries are currently in the "exponential spread stage," and thus there is scarce information available which would enable one to predict the phase transition between spread and containment. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to predicting the spread of COVID-19 based on dictionary learning and online nonnegative matrix factorization (online NMF). The key idea is to learn dictionary patterns of short evolution instances of the new daily cases in multiple countries at the same time, so that their latent correlation structures are captured in the dictionary patterns. We first learn such patterns by minibatch learning from the entire time-series and then further adapt them to the time-series by online NMF. As we progressively adapt and improve the learned dictionary patterns to the more recent observations, we also use them to make one-step predictions by the partial fitting. Lastly, by recursively applying the one-step predictions, we can extrapolate our predictions into the near future. Our prediction results can be directly attributed to the learned dictionary patterns due to their interpretability.