Sepehr Elahi

Sepehr Elahi, Sina Akbari, Jalal Etesami et al.

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. Akbari et al. [2022] studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.

Saeed Masiha, Sepehr Elahi, Negar Kiyavash et al.

We study Stackelberg (leader--follower) tuning of network parameters (tolls, capacities, incentives) in combinatorial congestion games, where selfish users choose discrete routes (or other combinatorial strategies) and settle at a congestion equilibrium. The leader minimizes a system-level objective (e.g., total travel time) evaluated at equilibrium, but this objective is typically nonsmooth because the set of used strategies can change abruptly. We propose ZO-Stackelberg, which couples a projection-free Frank--Wolfe equilibrium solver with a zeroth-order outer update, avoiding differentiation through equilibria. We prove convergence to generalized Goldstein stationary points of the true equilibrium objective, with explicit dependence on the equilibrium approximation error, and analyze subsampled oracles: if an exact minimizer is sampled with probability $κ_m$, then the Frank--Wolfe error decays as $\mathcal{O}(1/(κ_m T))$. We also propose stratified sampling as a practical way to avoid a vanishing $κ_m$ when the strategies that matter most for the Wardrop equilibrium concentrate in a few dominant combinatorial classes (e.g., short paths). Experiments on real-world networks demonstrate that our method achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups over a differentiation-based baseline while converging to follower equilibria.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Sepehr Elahi, Sina Akbari et al.

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main challenges: limited data results in errors in statistical testing and the computational complexity of the learning task is daunting. This paper builds upon and extends four of our prior publications (Mokhtarian et al., 2021; Akbari et al., 2021; Mokhtarian et al., 2022, 2023a). These works introduced the concept of removable variables, which are the only variables that can be removed recursively for the purpose of causal discovery. Presence and identification of removable variables allow recursive approaches for causal discovery, a promising solution that helps to address the aforementioned challenges by reducing the problem size successively. This reduction not only minimizes conditioning sets in each conditional independence (CI) test, leading to fewer errors but also significantly decreases the number of required CI tests. The worst-case performances of these methods nearly match the lower bound. In this paper, we present a unified framework for the proposed algorithms, refined with additional details and enhancements for a coherent presentation. A comprehensive literature review is also included, comparing the computational complexity of our methods with existing approaches, showcasing their state-of-the-art efficiency. Another contribution of this paper is the release of RCD, a Python package that efficiently implements these algorithms. This package is designed for practitioners and researchers interested in applying these methods in practical scenarios. The package is available at github.com/ban-epfl/rcd, with comprehensive documentation provided at rcdpackage.com.

Sepehr Elahi, Paula Mürmann, Patrick Thiran

The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is a widely used model for the spread of information and infectious diseases, particularly non-immunizing ones, on a graph. Given a highly contagious disease, a natural question is how to best vaccinate individuals to minimize the disease's extinction time. While previous works showed that the problem of optimal vaccination is closely linked to the NP-hard Spectral Radius Minimization (SRM) problem, they assumed that the graph is known, which is often not the case in practice. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the extinction time of an outbreak modeled by an SIS model where the graph on which the disease spreads is unknown and only the infection states of the vertices are observed. To this end, we split the problem into two: learning the graph and determining effective vaccination strategies. We propose a novel inclusion-exclusion-based learning algorithm and, unlike previous approaches, establish its sample complexity for graph recovery. We then detail an optimal algorithm for the SRM problem and prove that its running time is polynomial in the number of vertices for graphs with bounded treewidth. This is complemented by an efficient and effective polynomial-time greedy heuristic for any graph. Finally, we present experiments on synthetic and real-world data that numerically validate our learning and vaccination algorithms.

Sepehr Elahi, Baran Atalar, Sevda Öğüt et al.

In federated multi-armed bandit problems, maximizing global reward while satisfying minimum privacy requirements to protect clients is the main goal. To formulate such problems, we consider a combinatorial contextual bandit setting with groups and changing action sets, where similar base arms arrive in groups and a set of base arms, called a super arm, must be chosen in each round to maximize super arm reward while satisfying the constraints of the rewards of groups from which base arms were chosen. To allow for greater flexibility, we let each base arm have two outcomes, modeled as the output of a two-output Gaussian process (GP), where one outcome is used to compute super arm reward and the other for group reward. We then propose a novel double-UCB GP-bandit algorithm, called Thresholded Combinatorial Gaussian Process Upper Confidence Bounds (TCGP-UCB), which balances between maximizing cumulative super arm reward and satisfying group reward constraints and can be tuned to prefer one over the other. We also define a new notion of regret that combines super arm regret with group reward constraint satisfaction and prove that TCGP-UCB incurs $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{λ^*(K)KT\overlineγ_{T}} )$ regret with high probability, where $\overlineγ_{T}$ is the maximum information gain associated with the set of base arm contexts that appeared in the first $T$ rounds and $K$ is the maximum super arm cardinality over all rounds. We lastly show in experiments using synthetic and real-world data and based on a federated learning setup as well as a content-recommendation one that our algorithm performs better then the current non-GP state-of-the-art combinatorial bandit algorithm, while satisfying group constraints.

Andi Nika, Sepehr Elahi, Cem Tekin

We consider a contextual bandit problem with a combinatorial action set and time-varying base arm availability. At the beginning of each round, the agent observes the set of available base arms and their contexts and then selects an action that is a feasible subset of the set of available base arms to maximize its cumulative reward in the long run. We assume that the mean outcomes of base arms are samples from a Gaussian Process (GP) indexed by the context set ${\cal X}$, and the expected reward is Lipschitz continuous in expected base arm outcomes. For this setup, we propose an algorithm called Optimistic Combinatorial Learning and Optimization with Kernel Upper Confidence Bounds (O'CLOK-UCB) and prove that it incurs $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{λ^*(K)KTγ_{KT}(\cup_{t\leq T}\mathcal{X}_t)} )$ regret with high probability, where $γ_{KT}(\cup_{t\leq T}\mathcal{X}_t)$ is the maximum information gain associated with the sets of base arm contexts $\mathcal{X}_t$ that appeared in the first $T$ rounds, $K$ is the maximum cardinality of any feasible action over all rounds, and $λ^*(K)$ is the maximum eigenvalue of all covariance matrices of selected actions up to time $T$, which is a function of $K$. To dramatically speed up the algorithm, we also propose a variant of O'CLOK-UCB that uses sparse GPs. Finally, we experimentally show that both algorithms exploit inter-base arm outcome correlation and vastly outperform the previous state-of-the-art UCB-based algorithms in realistic setups.

Andi Nika, Sepehr Elahi, Çağın Ararat et al.

We consider the problem of optimizing a vector-valued objective function $\boldsymbol{f}$ sampled from a Gaussian Process (GP) whose index set is a well-behaved, compact metric space $({\cal X},d)$ of designs. We assume that $\boldsymbol{f}$ is not known beforehand and that evaluating $\boldsymbol{f}$ at design $x$ results in a noisy observation of $\boldsymbol{f}(x)$. Since identifying the Pareto optimal designs via exhaustive search is infeasible when the cardinality of ${\cal X}$ is large, we propose an algorithm, called Adaptive $\boldsymbolε$-PAL, that exploits the smoothness of the GP-sampled function and the structure of $({\cal X},d)$ to learn fast. In essence, Adaptive $\boldsymbolε$-PAL employs a tree-based adaptive discretization technique to identify an $\boldsymbolε$-accurate Pareto set of designs in as few evaluations as possible. We provide both information-type and metric dimension-type bounds on the sample complexity of $\boldsymbolε$-accurate Pareto set identification. We also experimentally show that our algorithm outperforms other Pareto set identification methods.