Jonathan Mei

Alexander Moreno, Justin Xiao, Jonathan Mei

Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) (Wilson et al. 2015) helps scale Gaussian Processes (GPs) by approximating the kernel matrix via interpolation at inducing points, achieving linear computational complexity. However, it lacks rigorous theoretical error analysis. This paper bridges the gap: we prove error bounds for the SKI Gram matrix and examine the error's effect on hyperparameter estimation and posterior inference. We further provide a practical guide to selecting the number of inducing points under convolutional cubic interpolation: they should grow as $n^{d/3}$ for error control. Crucially, we identify two dimensionality regimes governing the trade-off between SKI Gram matrix spectral norm error and computational complexity. For $d \leq 3$, any error tolerance can achieve linear time for sufficiently large sample size. For $d > 3$, the error must increase with sample size to maintain linear time. Our analysis provides key insights into SKI's scalability-accuracy trade-offs, establishing precise conditions for achieving linear-time GP inference with controlled approximation error.

Alexander Moreno, Jonathan Mei, Luke Walters

Toeplitz Neural Networks (TNNs) (Qin et. al. 2023) are a recent sequence model with impressive results. They require O(n log n) computational complexity and O(n) relative positional encoder (RPE) multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and decay bias calls. We aim to reduce both. We first note that the RPE is a non-SPD (symmetric positive definite) kernel and the Toeplitz matrices are pseudo-Gram matrices. Further 1) the learned kernels display spiky behavior near the main diagonals with otherwise smooth behavior; 2) the RPE MLP is slow. For bidirectional models, this motivates a sparse plus low-rank Toeplitz matrix decomposition. For the sparse component's action, we do a small 1D convolution. For the low rank component, we replace the RPE MLP with linear interpolation and use asymmetric Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) (Wilson et. al. 2015) for O(n) complexity: we provide rigorous error analysis. For causal models, "fast" causal masking (Katharopoulos et. al. 2020) negates SKI's benefits. Working in the frequency domain, we avoid an explicit decay bias. To enforce causality, we represent the kernel via the real part of its frequency response using the RPE and compute the imaginary part via a Hilbert transform. This maintains O(n log n) complexity but achieves an absolute speedup. Modeling the frequency response directly is also competitive for bidirectional training, using one fewer FFT. We set a speed state of the art on Long Range Arena (Tay et. al. 2020) with minimal score degradation.

Jonathan Mei, José M. F. Moura

A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is applied towards learning network graph structure. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex system of interacting entities. This formulation jointly estimates non-linearities in the underlying data generation, the direct interactions between measured entities, and the indirect effects of unmeasured processes on the observed data. The learning is posed as regularized empirical risk minimization. Details of the algorithm for learning the model are outlined. Experiments demonstrate the performance of the learned model on real data.

Jonathan Mei, José M. F. Moura

Many applications donot have the benefit of the laws of physics to derive succinct descriptive models for observed data. In alternative, interdependencies among $N$ time series $\{ x_{nk}, k>0 \}_{n=1}^{N}$ are nowadays often captured by a graph or network $G$ that in practice may be very large. The network itself may change over time as well (i.e., as $G_k$). Tracking brute force the changes of time varying networks presents major challenges, including the associated computational problems. Further, a large set of networks may not lend itself to useful analysis. This paper approximates the time varying networks $\left\{G_k\right\}$ as weighted linear combinations of eigennetworks. The eigennetworks are fixed building blocks that are estimated by first learning the time series of graphs $G_k$ from the data $\{ x_{nk}, k>0 \}_{n=1}^{N}$, followed by a Principal Network Analysis procedure. The weights of the eigennetwork representation are eigenfeatures and the time varying networks $\left\{G_k\right\}$ describe a trajectory in eigennetwork space. These eigentrajectories should be smooth since the networks $G_k$ vary at a much slower rate than the data $x_{nk}$, except when structural network shifts occur reflecting potentially an abrupt change in the underlying application and sources of the data. Algorithms for learning the time series of graphs $\left\{G_k\right\}$, deriving the eigennetworks, eigenfeatures and eigentrajectories, and detecting changepoints are presented. Experiments on simulated data and with two real time series data (a voting record of the US senate and genetic expression data for the \textit{Drosophila Melanogaster} as it goes through its life cycle) demonstrate the performance of the learning and provide interesting interpretations of the eigennetworks.

Jonathan Mei, José M. F. Moura

A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows joint estimation of certain non-linearities in the system, the direct interactions between measured variables, and the effects of unmodeled elements on the observed system. The particular form of the model adopted is justified, and learning is posed as a regularized empirical risk minimization. This leads to classes of structured convex optimization problems with a "sparse plus low-rank" flavor. Relations between the proposed model and several common model paradigms, such as those of Robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Vector Autoregression (VAR), are established. Particularly in the VAR setting, the low-rank contributions can come from broad trends exhibited in the time series. Details of the algorithm for learning the model are presented. Experiments demonstrate the performance of the model and the estimation algorithm on simulated and real data.

Jonathan Mei, José M. F. Moura

Many applications collect a large number of time series, for example, the financial data of companies quoted in a stock exchange, the health care data of all patients that visit the emergency room of a hospital, or the temperature sequences continuously measured by weather stations across the US. These data are often referred to as unstructured. A first task in its analytics is to derive a low dimensional representation, a graph or discrete manifold, that describes well the interrelations among the time series and their intrarelations across time. This paper presents a computationally tractable algorithm for estimating this graph that structures the data. The resulting graph is directed and weighted, possibly capturing causal relations, not just reciprocal correlations as in many existing approaches in the literature. A convergence analysis is carried out. The algorithm is demonstrated on random graph datasets and real network time series datasets, and its performance is compared to that of related methods. The adjacency matrices estimated with the new method are close to the true graph in the simulated data and consistent with prior physical knowledge in the real dataset tested.