Kashif Rasul

Lewis Tunstall, Edward Beeching, Nathan Lambert et al. · salesforce

We aim to produce a smaller language model that is aligned to user intent. Previous research has shown that applying distilled supervised fine-tuning (dSFT) on larger models significantly improves task accuracy; however, these models are unaligned, i.e. they do not respond well to natural prompts. To distill this property, we experiment with the use of preference data from AI Feedback (AIF). Starting from a dataset of outputs ranked by a teacher model, we apply distilled direct preference optimization (dDPO) to learn a chat model with significantly improved intent alignment. The approach requires only a few hours of training without any additional sampling during fine-tuning. The final result, Zephyr-7B, sets the state-of-the-art on chat benchmarks for 7B parameter models, and requires no human annotation. In particular, results on MT-Bench show that Zephyr-7B surpasses Llama2-Chat-70B, the best open-access RLHF-based model. Code, models, data, and tutorials for the system are available at https://github.com/huggingface/alignment-handbook.

Kashif Rasul, Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams et al.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Marin Biloš, Kashif Rasul, Anderson Schneider et al.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Daniil Tiapkin, Daniele Calandriello, Denis Belomestny et al.

Traditional Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) often relies on reward models, frequently assuming preference structures like the Bradley--Terry model, which may not accurately capture the complexities of real human preferences (e.g., intransitivity). Nash Learning from Human Feedback (NLHF) offers a more direct alternative by framing the problem as finding a Nash equilibrium of a game defined by these preferences. While many works study the Nash learning problem directly in the policy space, we instead consider it under a more realistic policy parametrization setting. We first analyze a simple self-play policy gradient method, which is equivalent to Online IPO. We establish high-probability last-iterate convergence guarantees for this method, but our analysis also reveals a possible stability limitation of the underlying dynamics. Motivated by this, we embed the self-play updates into a proximal point framework, yielding a stabilized algorithm. For this combined method, we prove high-probability last-iterate convergence and discuss its more practical version, which we call Nash Prox. Finally, we apply this method to post-training of large language models and validate its empirical performance.

Stephan Rabanser, Tim Januschowski, Kashif Rasul et al.

We introduce a novel, practically relevant variation of the anomaly detection problem in multi-variate time series: intrinsic anomaly detection. It appears in diverse practical scenarios ranging from DevOps to IoT, where we want to recognize failures of a system that operates under the influence of a surrounding environment. Intrinsic anomalies are changes in the functional dependency structure between time series that represent an environment and time series that represent the internal state of a system that is placed in said environment. We formalize this problem, provide under-studied public and new purpose-built data sets for it, and present methods that handle intrinsic anomaly detection. These address the short-coming of existing anomaly detection methods that cannot differentiate between expected changes in the system's state and unexpected ones, i.e., changes in the system that deviate from the environment's influence. Our most promising approach is fully unsupervised and combines adversarial learning and time series representation learning, thereby addressing problems such as label sparsity and subjectivity, while allowing to navigate and improve notoriously problematic anomaly detection data sets.

Kashif Rasul, Young-Jin Park, Max Nihlén Ramström et al.

Time series models aim for accurate predictions of the future given the past, where the forecasts are used for important downstream tasks like business decision making. In practice, deep learning based time series models come in many forms, but at a high level learn some continuous representation of the past and use it to output point or probabilistic forecasts. In this paper, we introduce a novel autoregressive architecture, VQ-AR, which instead learns a \emph{discrete} set of representations that are used to predict the future. Extensive empirical comparison with other competitive deep learning models shows that surprisingly such a discrete set of representations gives state-of-the-art or equivalent results on a wide variety of time series datasets. We also highlight the shortcomings of this approach, explore its zero-shot generalization capabilities, and present an ablation study on the number of representations. The full source code of the method will be available at the time of publication with the hope that researchers can further investigate this important but overlooked inductive bias for the time series domain.

Shengyi Huang, Michael Noukhovitch, Arian Hosseini et al. · mila

This work is the first to openly reproduce the Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) scaling behaviors reported in OpenAI's seminal TL;DR summarization work. We create an RLHF pipeline from scratch, enumerate over 20 key implementation details, and share key insights during the reproduction. Our RLHF-trained Pythia models demonstrate significant gains in response quality that scale with model size, with our 2.8B, 6.9B models outperforming OpenAI's released 1.3B checkpoint. We publicly release the trained model checkpoints and code to facilitate further research and accelerate progress in the field (\url{https://github.com/vwxyzjn/summarize_from_feedback_details}).

Brendan R. Hogan, Xiwen Chen, James T. Wilson et al.

We present AlphaLab, an autonomous research harness that leverages frontier LLM agentic capabilities to automate the full experimental cycle in quantitative, computation-intensive domains. Given only a dataset and a natural-language objective, AlphaLab proceeds through three phases without human intervention: (1) it adapts to the domain and explores the data, writing analysis code and producing a research report; (2) it constructs and adversarially validates its own evaluation framework; and (3) it runs large-scale GPU experiments via a Strategist/Worker loop, accumulating domain knowledge in a persistent playbook that functions as a form of online prompt optimization. All domain-specific behavior is factored into adapters generated by the model itself, so the same pipeline handles qualitatively different tasks without modification. We evaluate AlphaLab with two frontier LLMs (GPT-5.2 and Claude Opus 4.6) on three domains: CUDA kernel optimization, where it writes GPU kernels that run 4.4x faster than torch.compile on average (up to 91x); LLM pretraining, where the full system achieves 22% lower validation loss than a single-shot baseline using the same model; and traffic forecasting, where it beats standard baselines by 23-25% after researching and implementing published model families from the literature. The two models discover qualitatively different solutions in every domain (neither dominates uniformly), suggesting that multi-model campaigns provide complementary search coverage. We additionally report results on financial time series forecasting in the appendix, and release all code at https://brendanhogan.github.io/alphalab-paper/.

Yu Chen, Marin Biloš, Sarthak Mittal et al.

Sequential models like recurrent neural networks and transformers have become standard for probabilistic multivariate time series forecasting across various domains. Despite their strengths, they struggle with capturing high-dimensional distributions and cross-feature dependencies. Recent work explores generative approaches using diffusion or flow-based models, extending to time series imputation and forecasting. However, scalability remains a challenge. This work proposes a novel method combining recurrent neural networks' efficiency with diffusion models' probabilistic modeling, based on stochastic interpolants and conditional generation with control features, offering insights for future developments in this dynamic field.

Alexis Roger, Gwen Legate, Kashif Rasul et al.

Tokenization and transfer learning are two critical components in building state of the art time series foundation models for forecasting. In this work, we systematically study the effect of tokenizer design, specifically scaling and quantization strategies, on model performance, alongside the impact of pretraining versus random initialization. We show that tokenizer configuration primarily governs the representational capacity and stability of the model, while transfer learning influences optimization efficiency and alignment. Using a combination of empirical training experiments and theoretical analyses, we demonstrate that pretrained models consistently leverage well-designed tokenizers more effectively, particularly at smaller vocabulary sizes. Conversely, misaligned tokenization can diminish or even invert the benefits of pretraining. These findings highlight the importance of careful tokenization in time series modeling and suggest that combining small, efficient vocabularies with pretrained weights is especially advantageous in multi-modal forecasting settings, where the overall vocabulary must be shared across modalities. Our results provide concrete guidance for designing tokenizers and leveraging transfer learning in discrete representation learning for continuous signals.

Han Xiao, Kashif Rasul, Roland Vollgraf

We present Fashion-MNIST, a new dataset comprising of 28x28 grayscale images of 70,000 fashion products from 10 categories, with 7,000 images per category. The training set has 60,000 images and the test set has 10,000 images. Fashion-MNIST is intended to serve as a direct drop-in replacement for the original MNIST dataset for benchmarking machine learning algorithms, as it shares the same image size, data format and the structure of training and testing splits. The dataset is freely available at https://github.com/zalandoresearch/fashion-mnist

Xiwen Chen, Wenhui Zhu, Songzhu Zheng et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for autonomous financial trading, a domain requiring continuous adaptation to noisy, non-stationary markets. Existing self-improving agents typically address this through unbounded free-form prompt optimization. However, in low signal-to-noise environments with delayed scalar rewards (P\&L), this unstructured approach exacerbates the fundamental credit assignment problem: optimizers cannot reliably distinguish systematic logic flaws from stochastic market variance, inevitably leading to policy drift. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce the Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy (SHARP), a neuro-symbolic framework that replaces unconstrained text mutation with structured, symbolic policy optimization. SHARP confines the agent's reasoning to a bounded, human-readable rubric of explicit condition-action rules. When sub-optimal trades occur, an attribution agent employs cross-sample reasoning across multiple samples to isolate specific rule failures. This enables targeted, atomic policy edits that are subsequently regularized through strict walk-forward validation. Evaluated across three diverse equity sectors and four LLM backbones, SHARP consistently transforms generic initial heuristics into highly robust strategies, lifting the empirical performance of compact models by 10 to 20 percentage points on average (e.g., GPT-4o-mini). Ultimately, SHARP demonstrates that LLMs can achieve dynamic and efficient adaptation while significantly enhancing the structural transparency and auditability demanded by institutional finance.

Kanghui Ning, Zijie Pan, Yu Liu et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability.

Zijie Pan, Yushan Jiang, Dongjin Song et al.

Recent studies in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting reveal that explicitly modeling the hidden dependencies among different time series can yield promising forecasting performance and reliable explanations. However, modeling variable dependencies remains underexplored when MTS is continuously accumulated under different regimes (stages). Due to the potential distribution and dependency disparities, the underlying model may encounter the catastrophic forgetting problem, i.e., it is challenging to memorize and infer different types of variable dependencies across different regimes while maintaining forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Learning (SKI-CL) framework to perform MTS forecasting within a continual learning paradigm, which leverages structural knowledge to steer the forecasting model toward identifying and adapting to different regimes, and selects representative MTS samples from each regime for memory replay. Specifically, we develop a forecasting model based on graph structure learning, where a consistency regularization scheme is imposed between the learned variable dependencies and the structural knowledge while optimizing the forecasting objective over the MTS data. As such, MTS representations learned in each regime are associated with distinct structural knowledge, which helps the model memorize a variety of conceivable scenarios and results in accurate forecasts in the continual learning context. Meanwhile, we develop a representation-matching memory replay scheme that maximizes the temporal coverage of MTS data to efficiently preserve the underlying temporal dynamics and dependency structures of each regime. Thorough empirical studies on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate SKI-CL's efficacy and advantages over the state-of-the-art for continual MTS forecasting tasks.

Chuanyang Zheng, Jiankai Sun, Yihang Gao et al.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a cornerstone in recent state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs). Traditionally, MoE relies on $\mathrm{Softmax}$ as the router score function to aggregate expert output, a designed choice that has persisted from the earliest MoE models to modern LLMs, and is now widely regarded as standard practice. However, the necessity of using $\mathrm{Softmax}$ to project router weights into a probability simplex remains an unchallenged assumption rather than a principled design choice. In this work, we first revisit the classical Nadaraya-Watson regression and observe that MoE shares the same mathematical formulation as Nadaraya-Watson regression. Furthermore, we show that both feed-forward neural network (FFN) and MoE can be interpreted as a special case of Nadaraya-Watson regression, where the kernel function corresponds to the input neurons of the output layer. Motivated by these insights, we propose the \textbf{zero-additional-cost} Kernel Inspired Router with Normalization (KERN), an FFN-style router function, as an alternative to $\mathrm{Softmax}$. We demonstrate that this router generalizes both $\mathrm{Sigmoid}$- and $\mathrm{Softmax}$-based routers. \textbf{Based on empirical observations and established practices in FFN implementation, we recommend the use of $\mathrm{ReLU}$ activation and $\ell_2$-normalization in $\mathrm{KERN}$ router function.} Comprehensive experiments in MoE and LLM validate the effectiveness of the proposed FFN-style router function \methodNorm.

Kevin Rojas, Jiahe Lin, Kashif Rasul et al.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel, order-agnostic generation with iterative refinement, offering a flexible alternative to autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, adapting reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning to DLMs remains an open challenge because of the intractable likelihood. Pioneering work such as diffu-GRPO estimated token-level likelihoods via one-step unmasking. While computationally efficient, this approach is severely biased. A more principled foundation lies in sequence-level likelihoods, where the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serves as a surrogate. Yet, despite this clean mathematical connection, ELBO-based methods have seen limited adoption due to the prohibitive cost of likelihood evaluation. In this work, we revisit ELBO estimation and disentangle its sources of variance. This decomposition motivates reducing variance through fast, deterministic integral approximations along a few pivotal dimensions. Building on this insight, we introduce \textbf{Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO)}, a new RL algorithm tailored for DLMs. GDPO leverages simple yet effective Semi-deterministic Monte Carlo schemes to mitigate the variance explosion of ELBO estimators under vanilla double Monte Carlo sampling, yielding a provably lower-variance estimator under tight evaluation budgets. Empirically, GDPO achieves consistent gains over pretrained checkpoints and outperforms diffu-GRPO, one of the state-of-the-art baselines, on the majority of math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Sanchit Sinha, Oana Frunza, Kashif Rasul et al.

The capabilities of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have reached state-of-the-art on many visual reasoning tasks, including chart reasoning, yet they still falter on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and degrade further when asked to produce their chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales, limiting explainability. We present Chart-RVR, a general framework that fine-tunes LVLMs to be more robust and explainable for chart reasoning by coupling Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with automatically verifiable rewards. Our framework comprises of three rewards that maximize: (i) correct chart-type classification, (ii) faithful chart table reconstruction, and (iii) process conformity. Applied to 3-billion-parameter LVLMs, Chart-RVR consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets, closing the OOD performance gap while improving rationale fidelity. The resulting models, the Chart-RVR-3B series, achieve state-of-the-art results on six chart-reasoning benchmarks spanning in-domain and OOD settings, surpassing all existing models of comparable size. Beyond accuracy, Chart-RVR yields more interpretable CoT rationales, strengthening trust and reliability - showcasing the power of verifiable rewards with GRPO for training reliable, interpretable chart-reasoning models.

Roland Riachi, Kashif Rasul, Arjun Ashok et al.

Recent works have demonstrated the effectiveness of adapting pre-trained language models (LMs) for forecasting time series in the low-data regime. We build upon these findings by analyzing the effective transfer from language models to time series forecasting under various design choices including upstream post-training, time series tokenizer and language backbone size. In the low-data regime, these design choices have a significant impact on the validation loss, with clear-cut choices that outperform others. Contrary to Hernandez et al. (2021), we observe that the validation loss of the LMs continues to smoothly decrease long after the validation loss of the randomly initialized models has converged, leading to a non-vanishing transfer gap that holds across design choices. These findings not only help shed light on the effective use of compute-efficient training for time series, but also open the way for the study of modality-agnostic properties of data distributions leveraged by these models.

Larkin Liu, Kashif Rasul, Yutong Chao et al.

We present a novel framework for online learning in Stackelberg general-sum games, where two agents, the leader and follower, engage in sequential turn-based interactions. At the core of this approach is a learned diffeomorphism that maps the joint action space to a smooth spherical Riemannian manifold, referred to as the Stackelberg manifold. This mapping, facilitated by neural normalizing flows, ensures the formation of tractable isoplanar subspaces, enabling efficient techniques for online learning. Leveraging the linearity of the agents' reward functions on the Stackelberg manifold, our construct allows the application of linear bandit algorithms. We then provide a rigorous theoretical basis for regret minimization on the learned manifold and establish bounds on the simple regret for learning Stackelberg equilibrium. This integration of manifold learning into game theory uncovers a previously unrecognized potential for neural normalizing flows as an effective tool for multi-agent learning. We present empirical results demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach compared to standard baselines, with applications spanning domains such as cybersecurity and economic supply chain optimization.

Jiwoo Hong, Sayak Paul, Noah Lee et al.

Modern preference alignment methods, such as DPO, rely on divergence regularization to a reference model for training stability-but this creates a fundamental problem we call "reference mismatch." In this paper, we investigate the negative impacts of reference mismatch in aligning text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models, showing that larger reference mismatch hinders effective adaptation given the same amount of data, e.g., as when learning new artistic styles, or personalizing to specific objects. We demonstrate this phenomenon across text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models and introduce margin-aware preference optimization (MaPO), a reference-agnostic approach that breaks free from this constraint. By directly optimizing the likelihood margin between preferred and dispreferred outputs under the Bradley-Terry model without anchoring to a reference, MaPO transforms diverse T2I tasks into unified pairwise preference optimization. We validate MaPO's versatility across five challenging domains: (1) safe generation, (2) style adaptation, (3) cultural representation, (4) personalization, and (5) general preference alignment. Our results reveal that MaPO's advantage grows dramatically with reference mismatch severity, outperforming both DPO and specialized methods like DreamBooth while reducing training time by 15%. MaPO thus emerges as a versatile and memory-efficient method for generic T2I adaptation tasks.

Alexander März, Kashif Rasul

We introduce the concept of Hyper-Trees and offer a new direction in applying tree-based models to time series data. Unlike conventional applications of decision trees that forecast time series directly, Hyper-Trees are designed to learn the parameters of time series models. Our framework combines the effectiveness of gradient boosted trees on tabular data with the advantages of established time series models, thereby naturally inducing a time series inductive bias to tree models. By relating the parameters of a target time series model to features, Hyper-Trees also address the issue of parameter non-stationarity. To resolve the inherent scaling issue of boosted trees when estimating a large number of target model parameters, we combine decision trees and neural networks within a unified framework. In this novel approach, the trees first generate informative representations from the input features, which a shallow network then maps to the target model parameters. With our research, we aim to explore the effectiveness of Hyper-Trees across various forecasting scenarios and to extend the application of gradient boosted trees outside their conventional use in time series modeling.

Sahil Garg, Anderson Schneider, Anant Raj et al.

Building on the remarkable achievements in generative sampling of natural images, we propose an innovative challenge, potentially overly ambitious, which involves generating samples of entire multivariate time series that resemble images. However, the statistical challenge lies in the small sample size, sometimes consisting of a few hundred subjects. This issue is especially problematic for deep generative models that follow the conventional approach of generating samples from a canonical distribution and then decoding or denoising them to match the true data distribution. In contrast, our method is grounded in information theory and aims to implicitly characterize the distribution of images, particularly the (global and local) dependency structure between pixels. We achieve this by empirically estimating its KL-divergence in the dual form with respect to the respective marginal distribution. This enables us to perform generative sampling directly in the optimized 1-D dual divergence space. Specifically, in the dual space, training samples representing the data distribution are embedded in the form of various clusters between two end points. In theory, any sample embedded between those two end points is in-distribution w.r.t. the data distribution. Our key idea for generating novel samples of images is to interpolate between the clusters via a walk as per gradients of the dual function w.r.t. the data dimensions. In addition to the data efficiency gained from direct sampling, we propose an algorithm that offers a significant reduction in sample complexity for estimating the divergence of the data distribution with respect to the marginal distribution. We provide strong theoretical guarantees along with an extensive empirical evaluation using many real-world datasets from diverse domains, establishing the superiority of our approach w.r.t. state-of-the-art deep learning methods.

Manuel Kunz, Stefan Birr, Mones Raslan et al.

Demand forecasting in the online fashion industry is particularly amendable to global, data-driven forecasting models because of the industry's set of particular challenges. These include the volume of data, the irregularity, the high amount of turn-over in the catalog and the fixed inventory assumption. While standard deep learning forecasting approaches cater for many of these, the fixed inventory assumption requires a special treatment via controlling the relationship between price and demand closely. In this case study, we describe the data and our modelling approach for this forecasting problem in detail and present empirical results that highlight the effectiveness of our approach.

Yu Chen, Wei Deng, Shikai Fang et al.

The Schrödinger bridge problem (SBP) is gaining increasing attention in generative modeling and showing promising potential even in comparison with the score-based generative models (SGMs). SBP can be interpreted as an entropy-regularized optimal transport problem, which conducts projections onto every other marginal alternatingly. However, in practice, only approximated projections are accessible and their convergence is not well understood. To fill this gap, we present a first convergence analysis of the Schrödinger bridge algorithm based on approximated projections. As for its practical applications, we apply SBP to probabilistic time series imputation by generating missing values conditioned on observed data. We show that optimizing the transport cost improves the performance and the proposed algorithm achieves the state-of-the-art result in healthcare and environmental data while exhibiting the advantage of exploring both temporal and feature patterns in probabilistic time series imputation.

Adèle Gouttes, Kashif Rasul, Mateusz Koren et al.

Here, we propose a general method for probabilistic time series forecasting. We combine an autoregressive recurrent neural network to model temporal dynamics with Implicit Quantile Networks to learn a large class of distributions over a time-series target. When compared to other probabilistic neural forecasting models on real- and simulated data, our approach is favorable in terms of point-wise prediction accuracy as well as on estimating the underlying temporal distribution.

Kashif Rasul, Calvin Seward, Ingmar Schuster et al.

In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion probabilistic models, a class of latent variable models closely connected to score matching and energy-based methods. Our model learns gradients by optimizing a variational bound on the data likelihood and at inference time converts white noise into a sample of the distribution of interest through a Markov chain using Langevin sampling. We demonstrate experimentally that the proposed autoregressive denoising diffusion model is the new state-of-the-art multivariate probabilistic forecasting method on real-world data sets with thousands of correlated dimensions. We hope that this method is a useful tool for practitioners and lays the foundation for future research in this area.

Kashif Rasul, Abdul-Saboor Sheikh, Ingmar Schuster et al.

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting time series. However, modeling statistical dependencies can improve accuracy and enable analysis of interaction effects. Deep learning methods are well suited for this problem, but multivariate models often assume a simple parametric distribution and do not scale to high dimensions. In this work we model the multivariate temporal dynamics of time series via an autoregressive deep learning model, where the data distribution is represented by a conditioned normalizing flow. This combination retains the power of autoregressive models, such as good performance in extrapolation into the future, with the flexibility of flows as a general purpose high-dimensional distribution model, while remaining computationally tractable. We show that it improves over the state-of-the-art for standard metrics on many real-world data sets with several thousand interacting time-series.

Kashif Rasul, Ingmar Schuster, Roland Vollgraf et al.

We present a generative model that is defined on finite sets of exchangeable, potentially high dimensional, data. As the architecture is an extension of RealNVPs, it inherits all its favorable properties, such as being invertible and allowing for exact log-likelihood evaluation. We show that this architecture is able to learn finite non-i.i.d. set data distributions, learn statistical dependencies between entities of the set and is able to train and sample with variable set sizes in a computationally efficient manner. Experiments on 3D point clouds show state-of-the art likelihoods.

Andreas Merentitis, Kashif Rasul, Roland Vollgraf et al.

Deep Reinforcement Learning has been shown to be very successful in complex games, e.g. Atari or Go. These games have clearly defined rules, and hence allow simulation. In many practical applications, however, interactions with the environment are costly and a good simulator of the environment is not available. Further, as environments differ by application, the optimal inductive bias (architecture, hyperparameters, etc.) of a reinforcement agent depends on the application. In this work, we propose a multi-arm bandit framework that selects from a set of different reinforcement learning agents to choose the one with the best inductive bias. To alleviate the problem of sparse rewards, the reinforcement learning agents are augmented with surrogate rewards. This helps the bandit framework to select the best agents early, since these rewards are smoother and less sparse than the environment reward. The bandit has the double objective of maximizing the reward while the agents are learning and selecting the best agent after a finite number of learning steps. Our experimental results on standard environments show that the proposed framework is able to consistently select the optimal agent after a finite number of steps, while collecting more cumulative reward compared to selecting a sub-optimal architecture or uniformly alternating between different agents.

Abdul-Saboor Sheikh, Kashif Rasul, Andreas Merentitis et al.

This work explores maximum likelihood optimization of neural networks through hypernetworks. A hypernetwork initializes the weights of another network, which in turn can be employed for typical functional tasks such as regression and classification. We optimize hypernetworks to directly maximize the conditional likelihood of target variables given input. Using this approach we obtain competitive empirical results on regression and classification benchmarks.