Dongjin Song

Kexin Zhang, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang et al.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has recently achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks. The most prominent advantage of SSL is that it reduces the dependence on labeled data. Based on the pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, even a small amount of labeled data can achieve high performance. Compared with many published self-supervised surveys on computer vision and natural language processing, a comprehensive survey for time series SSL is still missing. To fill this gap, we review current state-of-the-art SSL methods for time series data in this article. To this end, we first comprehensively review existing surveys related to SSL and time series, and then provide a new taxonomy of existing time series SSL methods by summarizing them from three perspectives: generative-based, contrastive-based, and adversarial-based. These methods are further divided into ten subcategories with detailed reviews and discussions about their key intuitions, main frameworks, advantages and disadvantages. To facilitate the experiments and validation of time series SSL methods, we also summarize datasets commonly used in time series forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and clustering tasks. Finally, we present the future directions of SSL for time series analysis.

Wei Zhu, Dongjin Song, Yuncong Chen et al.

Despite the fact that many anomaly detection approaches have been developed for multivariate time series data, limited effort has been made on federated settings in which multivariate time series data are heterogeneously distributed among different edge devices while data sharing is prohibited. In this paper, we investigate the problem of federated unsupervised anomaly detection and present a Federated Exemplar-based Deep Neural Network (Fed-ExDNN) to conduct anomaly detection for multivariate time series data on different edge devices. Specifically, we first design an Exemplar-based Deep Neural network (ExDNN) to learn local time series representations based on their compatibility with an exemplar module which consists of hidden parameters learned to capture varieties of normal patterns on each edge device. Next, a constrained clustering mechanism (FedCC) is employed on the centralized server to align and aggregate the parameters of different local exemplar modules to obtain a unified global exemplar module. Finally, the global exemplar module is deployed together with a shared feature encoder to each edge device and anomaly detection is conducted by examining the compatibility of testing data to the exemplar module. Fed-ExDNN captures local normal time series patterns with ExDNN and aggregates these patterns by FedCC, and thus can handle the heterogeneous data distributed over different edge devices simultaneously. Thoroughly empirical studies on six public datasets show that ExDNN and Fed-ExDNN can outperform state-of-the-art anomaly detection algorithms and federated learning techniques.

Yang Jiao, Kai Yang, Tiancheng Wu et al.

Bilevel optimization plays an essential role in many machine learning tasks, ranging from hyperparameter optimization to meta-learning. Existing studies on bilevel optimization, however, focus on either centralized or synchronous distributed setting. The centralized bilevel optimization approaches require collecting massive amount of data to a single server, which inevitably incur significant communication expenses and may give rise to data privacy risks. Synchronous distributed bilevel optimization algorithms, on the other hand, often face the straggler problem and will immediately stop working if a few workers fail to respond. As a remedy, we propose Asynchronous Distributed Bilevel Optimization (ADBO) algorithm. The proposed ADBO can tackle bilevel optimization problems with both nonconvex upper-level and lower-level objective functions, and its convergence is theoretically guaranteed. Furthermore, it is revealed through theoretic analysis that the iteration complexity of ADBO to obtain the $ε$-stationary point is upper bounded by $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{ε^2})$. Thorough empirical studies on public datasets have been conducted to elucidate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed ADBO.

Yang Jiao, Kai Yang, Dongjin Song

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), which aims to find an optimal decision that minimizes the worst case cost over the ambiguity set of probability distribution, has been widely applied in diverse applications, e.g., network behavior analysis, risk management, etc. However, existing DRO techniques face three key challenges: 1) how to deal with the asynchronous updating in a distributed environment; 2) how to leverage the prior distribution effectively; 3) how to properly adjust the degree of robustness according to different scenarios. To this end, we propose an asynchronous distributed algorithm, named Asynchronous Single-looP alternatIve gRadient projEction (ASPIRE) algorithm with the itErative Active SEt method (EASE) to tackle the distributed distributionally robust optimization (DDRO) problem. Furthermore, a new uncertainty set, i.e., constrained D-norm uncertainty set, is developed to effectively leverage the prior distribution and flexibly control the degree of robustness. Finally, our theoretical analysis elucidates that the proposed algorithm is guaranteed to converge and the iteration complexity is also analyzed. Extensive empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can not only achieve fast convergence, and remain robust against data heterogeneity as well as malicious attacks, but also tradeoff robustness with performance.

Guiquan Sun, Xikun Zhang, Jingchao Ni et al.

Continual graph learning (CGL) aims to learn from dynamically evolving graphs while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Existing CGL approaches typically adopt a task-based formulation, where the data stream is partitioned into a sequence of discrete tasks with pre-defined boundaries. However, such assumptions rarely hold in real-world environments, where data distributions evolve continuously and task identity is often unavailable. To better reflect realistic non-stationary environments, we revisit continual graph learning from a task-free perspective. We propose a unified formulation that models the data stream as a time-varying mixture of latent task distributions, enabling continuous modeling of distribution drift. Based on this formulation, we construct DRIFT, a benchmark that spans a spectrum of transition dynamics ranging from hard task switches to smooth distributional drift through a Gaussian parameterization. We evaluate representative continual learning methods under this task-free setting and observe substantial performance degradation compared to traditional task-based protocols. Our findings indicate that many existing approaches implicitly rely on task boundary information and struggle under realistic task-free graph streams. This work highlights the importance of studying continual graph learning under realistic non-stationary conditions and provides a benchmark for future research in this direction. Our code is available at https://github.com/gqBond/DRIFT.

Muzi Peng, Jiangwei Wang, Dongjin Song et al.

Deep learning is the method of choice for trajectory prediction for autonomous vehicles. Unfortunately, its data-hungry nature implicitly requires the availability of sufficiently rich and high-quality centralized datasets, which easily leads to privacy leakage. Besides, uncertainty-awareness becomes increasingly important for safety-crucial cyber physical systems whose prediction module heavily relies on machine learning tools. In this paper, we relax the data collection requirement and enhance uncertainty-awareness by using Federated Learning on Connected Autonomous Vehicles with an uncertainty-aware global objective. We name our algorithm as FLTP. We further introduce ALFLTP which boosts FLTP via using active learning techniques in adaptatively selecting participating clients. We consider both negative log-likelihood (NLL) and aleatoric uncertainty (AU) as client selection metrics. Experiments on Argoverse dataset show that FLTP significantly outperforms the model trained on local data. In addition, ALFLTP-AU converges faster in training regression loss and performs better in terms of NLL, minADE and MR than FLTP in most rounds, and has more stable round-wise performance than ALFLTP-NLL.

Yingjie Zhou, Yuqin Xie, Fanxing Liu et al.

Weakly supervised graph anomaly detection aims to unveil unusual graph instances, e.g., nodes, whose behaviors significantly differ from normal ones, given only a limited number of annotated anomalies and abundant unlabeled samples. A major challenge is to learn a meaningful latent feature representation that reduces intra-class variance among normal data while remaining highly sensitive to anomalies. Although recent works have applied self-supervised feature learning for graph anomaly detection, their strategies are not specifically tailored to its unique requirements, motivating our exploration of a more domain-specific approach. In this paper, we introduce a weakly supervised graph anomaly detection method that leverages a feature learning strategy tailored for graph anomalies. Our approach is built upon a multi-task learning scheme that extracts robust feature representations through synthesized anomalies. We generate synthetic anomalies by perturbing the normal graph in various ways and assign a dedicated detection head to each anomaly type, ensuring that learned features are sensitive to potential deviations from normal patterns. Although synthetic anomalies may not perfectly replicate real-world patterns, they provide valuable auxiliary data for effective feature learnin, much like features learned from ImageNet classification transfer to downstream vision tasks. Additionally, we adopt a two-phase learning strategy: an initial warm-up phase using only synthetic samples, followed by a full-training phase integrating both tasks, to balance the influence of synthetic and real data. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method over its competitors. Code is available at https://github.com/yj-zhou/SAWGAD.

Yang Jiao, Kai Yang, Dongjin Song

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), which aims to find an optimal decision that minimizes the worst case cost over the ambiguity set of probability distribution, has been widely applied in diverse applications, e.g., network behavior analysis, risk management, etc. However, existing DRO techniques face three key challenges: 1) how to deal with the asynchronous updating in a distributed environment; 2) how to leverage the prior distribution effectively; 3) how to properly adjust the degree of robustness according to different scenarios. To this end, we propose an asynchronous distributed algorithm, named Asynchronous Single-looP alternatIve gRadient projEction (ASPIRE) algorithm with the itErative Active SEt method (EASE) to tackle the federated distributionally robust optimization (FDRO) problem. Furthermore, a new uncertainty set, i.e., constrained D-norm uncertainty set, is developed to effectively leverage the prior distribution and flexibly control the degree of robustness. Finally, our theoretical analysis elucidates that the proposed algorithm is guaranteed to converge and the iteration complexity is also analyzed. Extensive empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can not only achieve fast convergence, and remain robust against data heterogeneity as well as malicious attacks, but also tradeoff robustness with performance.

Jiangwei Wang, Lili Su, Songyang Han et al.

Hybrid traffic which involves both autonomous and human-driven vehicles would be the norm of the autonomous vehicles practice for a while. On the one hand, unlike autonomous vehicles, human-driven vehicles could exhibit sudden abnormal behaviors such as unpredictably switching to dangerous driving modes, putting its neighboring vehicles under risks; such undesired mode switching could arise from numbers of human driver factors, including fatigue, drunkenness, distraction, aggressiveness, etc. On the other hand, modern vehicle-to-vehicle communication technologies enable the autonomous vehicles to efficiently and reliably share the scarce run-time information with each other. In this paper, we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first efficient algorithm that can (1) significantly improve trajectory prediction by effectively fusing the run-time information shared by surrounding autonomous vehicles, and can (2) accurately and quickly detect abnormal human driving mode switches or abnormal driving behavior with formal assurance without hurting human drivers privacy. To validate our proposed algorithm, we first evaluate our proposed trajectory predictor on NGSIM and Argoverse datasets and show that our proposed predictor outperforms the baseline methods. Then through extensive experiments on SUMO simulator, we show that our proposed algorithm has great detection performance in both highway and urban traffic. The best performance achieves detection rate of 97.3%, average detection delay of 1.2s, and 0 false alarm.

Yushan Jiang, Kanghui Ning, Zijie Pan et al.

Multi-modal time series analysis has recently emerged as a prominent research area in data mining, driven by the increasing availability of diverse data modalities, such as text, images, and structured tabular data from real-world sources. However, effective analysis of multi-modal time series is hindered by data heterogeneity, modality gap, misalignment, and inherent noise. Recent advancements in multi-modal time series methods have exploited the multi-modal context via cross-modal interactions based on deep learning methods, significantly enhancing various downstream tasks. In this tutorial and survey, we present a systematic and up-to-date overview of multi-modal time series datasets and methods. We first state the existing challenges of multi-modal time series analysis and our motivations, with a brief introduction of preliminaries. Then, we summarize the general pipeline and categorize existing methods through a unified cross-modal interaction framework encompassing fusion, alignment, and transference at different levels (\textit{i.e.}, input, intermediate, output), where key concepts and ideas are highlighted. We also discuss the real-world applications of multi-modal analysis for both standard and spatial time series, tailored to general and specific domains. Finally, we discuss future research directions to help practitioners explore and exploit multi-modal time series. The up-to-date resources are provided in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Multi-modal-Time-Series-Analysis

Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song, Dacheng Tao

Continual learning on graph data has recently attracted paramount attention for its aim to resolve the catastrophic forgetting problem on existing tasks while adapting the sequentially updated model to newly emerged graph tasks. While there have been efforts to summarize progress on continual learning research over Euclidean data, e.g., images and texts, a systematic review of progress in continual learning on graphs, a.k.a, continual graph learning (CGL) or lifelong graph learning, is still demanding. Graph data are far more complex in terms of data structures and application scenarios, making CGL task settings, model designs, and applications extremely challenging. To bridge the gap, we provide a comprehensive review of existing continual graph learning (CGL) algorithms by elucidating the different task settings and categorizing the existing methods based on their characteristics. We compare the CGL methods with traditional continual learning techniques and analyze the applicability of the traditional continual learning techniques to CGL tasks. Additionally, we review the benchmark works that are crucial to CGL research. Finally, we discuss the remaining challenges and propose several future directions. We will maintain an up-to-date GitHub repository featuring a comprehensive list of CGL algorithms, accessible at https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Survey-of-Continual-Learning-on-Graphs.

ChengAo Shen, Wenchao Yu, Ziming Zhao et al.

Time series, typically represented as numerical sequences, can also be transformed into images and texts, offering multi-modal views (MMVs) of the same underlying signal. These MMVs can reveal complementary patterns and enable the use of powerful pre-trained large models, such as large vision models (LVMs), for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). However, as we identified in this work, the state-of-the-art (SOTA) LVM-based forecaster poses an inductive bias towards "forecasting periods". To harness this bias, we propose DMMV, a novel decomposition-based multi-modal view framework that leverages trend-seasonal decomposition and a novel backcast-residual based adaptive decomposition to integrate MMVs for LTSF. Comparative evaluations against 14 SOTA models across diverse datasets show that DMMV outperforms single-view and existing multi-modal baselines, achieving the best mean squared error (MSE) on 6 out of 8 benchmark datasets. The code for this paper is available at: https://github.com/D2I-Group/dmmv.

Yushan Jiang, Shuteng Niu, Dongjin Song et al.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a rare but often fatal complication in liver transplantation, with a very high mortality rate. By harnessing multi-modal deep learning methods to integrate heterogeneous and imbalanced electronic health records (EHR), we aim to advance early prediction of GVHD, paving the way for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. In this study, we analyzed pre-transplant electronic health records (EHR) spanning the period before surgery for 2,100 liver transplantation patients, including 42 cases of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), from a cohort treated at Mayo Clinic between 1992 and 2025. The dataset comprised four major modalities: patient demographics, laboratory tests, diagnoses, and medications. We developed a multi-modal deep learning framework that dynamically fuses these modalities, handles irregular records with missing values, and addresses extreme class imbalance through AUC-based optimization. The developed framework outperforms all single-modal and multi-modal machine learning baselines, achieving an AUC of 0.836, an AUPRC of 0.157, a recall of 0.768, and a specificity of 0.803. It also demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in capturing complementary information from different modalities, leading to improved performance. Our multi-modal deep learning framework substantially improves existing approaches for early GVHD prediction. By effectively addressing the challenges of heterogeneity and extreme class imbalance in real-world EHR, it achieves accurate early prediction. Our proposed multi-modal deep learning method demonstrates promising results for early prediction of a GVHD in liver transplantation, despite the challenge of extremely imbalanced EHR data.

Yuxuan Liang, Haomin Wen, Yuqi Nie et al.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

Juan Manuel Perez, Kevin Garcia, Brooklyn Berry et al.

Indexing time series by creating compact binary representations is a fundamental task in time series data mining. Recently, deep learning-based hashing methods have proven effective for indexing time series based on semantic meaning rather than just raw similarity. The purpose of deep hashing is to map samples with the same semantic meaning to identical binary hash codes, enabling more efficient search and retrieval. Unlike other supervised representation learning methods, supervised deep hashing requires a discretization step to convert real-valued representations into binary codes, but this can induce significant information loss. In this paper, we propose a von Mises-Fisher (vMF) hashing loss. The proposed deep hashing model maps data to an M-dimensional hyperspherical space to effectively reduce information loss and models each data class as points following distinct vMF distributions. The designed loss aims to maximize the separation between each modeled vMF distribution to provide a better way to maximize the margin between each semantically different data sample. Experimental results show that our method outperforms existing baselines. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/jmpq97/vmf-hashing

Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song, Yushan Jiang et al.

Observation-based trajectory prediction for systems with unknown dynamics is essential in fields such as physics and biology. Most existing approaches are limited to learning within a single system with fixed dynamics patterns. However, many real-world applications require learning across systems with evolving dynamics patterns, a challenge that has been largely overlooked. To address this, we systematically investigate the problem of Continual Dynamics Learning (CDL), examining task configurations and evaluating the applicability of existing techniques, while identifying key challenges. In response, we propose the Mode-switching Graph ODE (MS-GODE) model, which integrates the strengths LG-ODE and sub-network learning with a mode-switching module, enabling efficient learning over varying dynamics. Moreover, we construct a novel benchmark of biological dynamic systems for CDL, Bio-CDL, featuring diverse systems with disparate dynamics and significantly enriching the research field of machine learning for dynamic systems. Our code available at https://github.com/QueuQ/MS-GODE.

Yushan Jiang, Zijie Pan, Xikun Zhang et al.

Recently, remarkable progress has been made over large language models (LLMs), demonstrating their unprecedented capability in varieties of natural language tasks. However, completely training a large general-purpose model from the scratch is challenging for time series analysis, due to the large volumes and varieties of time series data, as well as the non-stationarity that leads to concept drift impeding continuous model adaptation and re-training. Recent advances have shown that pre-trained LLMs can be exploited to capture complex dependencies in time series data and facilitate various applications. In this survey, we provide a systematic overview of existing methods that leverage LLMs for time series analysis. Specifically, we first state the challenges and motivations of applying language models in the context of time series as well as brief preliminaries of LLMs. Next, we summarize the general pipeline for LLM-based time series analysis, categorize existing methods into different groups (i.e., direct query, tokenization, prompt design, fine-tune, and model integration), and highlight the key ideas within each group. We also discuss the applications of LLMs for both general and spatial-temporal time series data, tailored to specific domains. Finally, we thoroughly discuss future research opportunities to empower time series analysis with LLMs.

Yushan Jiang, Wenchao Yu, Geon Lee et al.

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow-prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement-continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

Zijie Pan, Yushan Jiang, Sahil Garg et al.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM ($S^2$IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, $S^2$IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed $S^2$IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Xin Zheng, Dongjin Song, Qingsong Wen et al.

Evaluating the performance of a well-trained GNN model on real-world graphs is a pivotal step for reliable GNN online deployment and serving. Due to a lack of test node labels and unknown potential training-test graph data distribution shifts, conventional model evaluation encounters limitations in calculating performance metrics (e.g., test error) and measuring graph data-level discrepancies, particularly when the training graph used for developing GNNs remains unobserved during test time. In this paper, we study a new research problem, online GNN evaluation, which aims to provide valuable insights into the well-trained GNNs's ability to effectively generalize to real-world unlabeled graphs under the test-time graph distribution shifts. Concretely, we develop an effective learning behavior discrepancy score, dubbed LeBeD, to estimate the test-time generalization errors of well-trained GNN models. Through a novel GNN re-training strategy with a parameter-free optimality criterion, the proposed LeBeD comprehensively integrates learning behavior discrepancies from both node prediction and structure reconstruction perspectives. This enables the effective evaluation of the well-trained GNNs' ability to capture test node semantics and structural representations, making it an expressive metric for estimating the generalization error in online GNN evaluation. Extensive experiments on real-world test graphs under diverse graph distribution shifts could verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, revealing its strong correlation with ground-truth test errors on various well-trained GNN models.

Jingchao Ni, Ziming Zhao, ChengAo Shen et al.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Kanghui Ning, Zijie Pan, Yu Liu et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability.

Binghao Lu, Caiwen Ding, Jinbo Bi et al.

Change detection, which aims to detect spatial changes from a pair of multi-temporal images due to natural or man-made causes, has been widely applied in remote sensing, disaster management, urban management, etc. Most existing change detection approaches, however, are fully supervised and require labor-intensive pixel-level labels. To address this, we develop a novel weakly supervised change detection technique via Knowledge Distillation and Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (KD-MSI) that leverages image-level labels. In our approach, the Class Activation Maps (CAM) are utilized not only to derive a change probability map but also to serve as a foundation for the knowledge distillation process. This is done through a joint training strategy of the teacher and student networks, enabling the student network to highlight potential change areas more accurately than teacher network based on image-level labels. Moreover, we designed a Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (MSI) module as a post processing step to further refine the change probability map from the trained student network. Empirical results on three public datasets, i.e., WHU-CD, DSIFN-CD, and LEVIR-CD, demonstrate that our proposed technique, with its integrated training strategy, significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Zijie Pan, Yushan Jiang, Dongjin Song et al.

Recent studies in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting reveal that explicitly modeling the hidden dependencies among different time series can yield promising forecasting performance and reliable explanations. However, modeling variable dependencies remains underexplored when MTS is continuously accumulated under different regimes (stages). Due to the potential distribution and dependency disparities, the underlying model may encounter the catastrophic forgetting problem, i.e., it is challenging to memorize and infer different types of variable dependencies across different regimes while maintaining forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Learning (SKI-CL) framework to perform MTS forecasting within a continual learning paradigm, which leverages structural knowledge to steer the forecasting model toward identifying and adapting to different regimes, and selects representative MTS samples from each regime for memory replay. Specifically, we develop a forecasting model based on graph structure learning, where a consistency regularization scheme is imposed between the learned variable dependencies and the structural knowledge while optimizing the forecasting objective over the MTS data. As such, MTS representations learned in each regime are associated with distinct structural knowledge, which helps the model memorize a variety of conceivable scenarios and results in accurate forecasts in the continual learning context. Meanwhile, we develop a representation-matching memory replay scheme that maximizes the temporal coverage of MTS data to efficiently preserve the underlying temporal dynamics and dependency structures of each regime. Thorough empirical studies on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate SKI-CL's efficacy and advantages over the state-of-the-art for continual MTS forecasting tasks.

Ziming Zhao, ChengAo Shen, Hanghang Tong et al.

Transformer-based models have gained increasing attention in time series research, driving interest in Large Language Models (LLMs) and foundation models for time series analysis. As the field moves toward multi-modality, Large Vision Models (LVMs) are emerging as a promising direction. In the past, the effectiveness of Transformer and LLMs in time series has been debated. When it comes to LVMs, a similar question arises: are LVMs truely useful for time series analysis? To address it, we design and conduct the first principled study involving 4 LVMs, 8 imaging methods, 18 datasets and 26 baselines across both high-level (classification) and low-level (forecasting) tasks, with extensive ablation analysis. Our findings indicate LVMs are indeed useful for time series classification but face challenges in forecasting. Although effective, the contemporary best LVM forecasters are limited to specific types of LVMs and imaging methods, exhibit a bias toward forecasting periods, and have limited ability to utilize long look-back windows. We hope our findings could serve as a cornerstone for future research on LVM- and multimodal-based solutions to different time series tasks.

Qianying Ren, Dongsheng Luo, Dongjin Song

Recently, various contrastive learning techniques have been developed to categorize time series data and exhibit promising performance. A general paradigm is to utilize appropriate augmentations and construct feasible positive samples such that the encoder can yield robust and discriminative representations by mapping similar data points closer together in the feature space while pushing dissimilar data points farther apart. Despite its efficacy, the fine-grained relative similarity (e.g., rank) information of positive samples is largely ignored, especially when labeled samples are limited. To this end, we present Rank Supervised Contrastive Learning (RankSCL) to perform time series classification. Different from conventional contrastive learning frameworks, RankSCL augments raw data in a targeted way in the embedding space and adopts certain filtering rules to select more informative positive and negative pairs of samples. Moreover, a novel rank loss is developed to assign different weights for different levels of positive samples, enable the encoder to extract the fine-grained information of the same class, and produce a clear boundary among different classes. Thoroughly empirical studies on 128 UCR datasets and 30 UEA datasets demonstrate that the proposed RankSCL can achieve state-of-the-art performance compared to existing baseline methods.

Xin Cao, Qinghua Tao, Yingjie Zhou et al.

Residential load forecasting (RLF) is crucial for resource scheduling in power systems. Most existing methods utilize all given load records (dense data) to indiscriminately extract the dependencies between historical and future time series. However, there exist important regular patterns residing in the event-related associations among different appliances (sparse knowledge), which have yet been ignored. In this paper, we propose an Event-Response Knowledge Guided approach (ERKG) for RLF by incorporating the estimation of electricity usage events for different appliances, mining event-related sparse knowledge from the load series. With ERKG, the event-response estimation enables portraying the electricity consumption behaviors of residents, revealing regular variations in appliance operational states. To be specific, ERKG consists of knowledge extraction and guidance: i) a forecasting model is designed for the electricity usage events by estimating appliance operational states, aiming to extract the event-related sparse knowledge; ii) a novel knowledge-guided mechanism is established by fusing such state estimates of the appliance events into the RLF model, which can give particular focuses on the patterns of users' electricity consumption behaviors. Notably, ERKG can flexibly serve as a plug-in module to boost the capability of existing forecasting models by leveraging event response. In numerical experiments, extensive comparisons and ablation studies have verified the effectiveness of our ERKG, e.g., over 8% MAE can be reduced on the tested state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Xuyang Shen, Zijie Pan, Diego Cerrai et al.

Extreme weather events, such as severe storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, and ice storms, which are exacerbated by climate change, frequently cause widespread power outages. These outages halt industrial operations, impact communities, damage critical infrastructure, profoundly disrupt economies, and have far-reaching effects across various sectors. To mitigate these effects, the University of Connecticut and Eversource Energy Center have developed an outage prediction modeling (OPM) system to provide pre-emptive forecasts for electric distribution networks before such weather events occur. However, existing predictive models in the system do not incorporate the spatial effect of extreme weather events. To this end, we develop Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks (SA-HGNN) with contrastive learning to enhance the OPM predictions for extreme weather-induced power outages. Specifically, we first encode spatial relationships of both static features (e.g., land cover, infrastructure) and event-specific dynamic features (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) via Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks (SA-HGNN). Next, we leverage contrastive learning to handle the imbalance problem associated with different types of extreme weather events and generate location-specific embeddings by minimizing intra-event distances between similar locations while maximizing inter-event distances across all locations. Thorough empirical studies in four utility service territories, i.e., Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts, and New Hampshire, demonstrate that SA-HGNN can achieve state-of-the-art performance for power outage prediction.

Xuyang Shen, Haoran Liu, Dongjin Song et al.

Clinical diagnosis requires sequential evidence acquisition under uncertainty. However, most Large Language Model (LLM) based diagnostic systems assume fully observed patient information and therefore do not explicitly model how clinical evidence should be sequentially acquired over time. Even when diagnosis is formulated as a sequential decision process, it is still challenging to learn effective diagnostic trajectories. This is because the space of possible evidence-acquisition paths is relatively large, while clinical datasets rarely provide explicit supervision information for desirable diagnostic paths. To this end, we formulate sequential diagnosis as a Latent Diagnostic Trajectory Learning (LDTL) framework based on a planning LLM agent and a diagnostic LLM agent. For the diagnostic LLM agent, diagnostic action sequences are treated as latent paths and we introduce a posterior distribution that prioritizes trajectories providing more diagnostic information. The planning LLM agent is then trained to follow this distribution, encouraging coherent diagnostic trajectories that progressively reduce uncertainty. Experiments on the MIMIC-CDM benchmark demonstrate that our proposed LDTL framework outperforms existing baselines in diagnostic accuracy under a sequential clinical diagnosis setting, while requiring fewer diagnostic tests. Furthermore, ablation studies highlight the critical role of trajectory-level posterior alignment in achieving these improvements.

Jiahui Zhao, Ziyi Meng, Stepan Gordeev et al.

With the rapid proliferation of textual data, predicting long texts has emerged as a significant challenge in the domain of natural language processing. Traditional text prediction methods encounter substantial difficulties when grappling with long texts, primarily due to the presence of redundant and irrelevant information, which impedes the model's capacity to capture pivotal insights from the text. To address this issue, we introduce a novel approach to long-text classification and prediction. Initially, we employ embedding techniques to condense the long texts, aiming to diminish the redundancy therein. Subsequently,the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) embedding method is utilized for text classification training. Experimental outcomes indicate that our method realizes considerable performance enhancements in classifying long texts of Preferential Trade Agreements. Furthermore, the condensation of text through embedding methods not only augments prediction accuracy but also substantially reduces computational complexity. Overall, this paper presents a strategy for long-text prediction, offering a valuable reference for researchers and engineers in the natural language processing sphere.

Soumyashree Sahoo, Chinmaey Shende, Md. Zakir Hossain et al.

Currently, depression treatment relies on closely monitoring patients response to treatment and adjusting the treatment as needed. Using self-reported or physician-administrated questionnaires to monitor treatment response is, however, burdensome, costly and suffers from recall bias. In this paper, we explore using location sensory data collected passively on smartphones to predict treatment outcome. To address heterogeneous data collection on Android and iOS phones, the two predominant smartphone platforms, we explore using domain adaptation techniques to map their data to a common feature space, and then use the data jointly to train machine learning models. Our results show that this domain adaptation approach can lead to significantly better prediction than that with no domain adaptation. In addition, our results show that using location features and baseline self-reported questionnaire score can lead to F1 score up to 0.67, comparable to that obtained using periodic self-reported questionnaires, indicating that using location data is a promising direction for predicting depression treatment outcome.

Kanghui Ning, Zijie Pan, Yushan Jiang et al.

Time series reasoning is emerging as the next frontier in temporal analysis, aiming to move beyond pattern recognition towards explicit, interpretable, and trustworthy inference. This paper presents a BlueSky vision built on two complementary directions. One builds robust foundations for time series reasoning, centered on comprehensive temporal understanding, structured multi-step reasoning, and faithful evaluation frameworks. The other advances system-level reasoning, moving beyond language-only explanations by incorporating multi-agent collaboration, multi-modal context, and retrieval-augmented approaches. Together, these directions outline a flexible and extensible framework for advancing time series reasoning, aiming to deliver interpretable and trustworthy temporal intelligence across diverse domains.

ChengAo Shen, Ziming Zhao, Hanghang Tong et al.

Time series AI is crucial for analyzing dynamic web content, driving a surge of pre-trained large models known for their strong knowledge encoding and transfer capabilities across diverse tasks. However, given their energy-intensive training, inference, and hardware demands, using large models as a one-fits-all solution raises serious concerns about carbon footprint and sustainability. For a specific task, a compact yet specialized, high-performing model may be more practical and affordable, especially for resource-constrained users such as small businesses. This motivates the question: Can we build cost-effective lightweight models with large-model-like performance on core tasks such as forecasting? This paper addresses this question by introducing SVTime, a novel Small model inspired by large Vision model (LVM) forecasters for long-term Time series forecasting (LTSF). Recently, LVMs have been shown as powerful tools for LTSF. We identify a set of key inductive biases of LVM forecasters -- analogous to the "physics" governing their behaviors in LTSF -- and design small models that encode these biases through meticulously crafted linear layers and constraint functions. Across 21 baselines spanning lightweight, complex, and pre-trained large models on 8 benchmark datasets, SVTime outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) lightweight models and rivals large models with 10^3 fewer parameters than LVMs, while enabling efficient training and inference in low-resource settings.

Cheonjin Park, Victoria Manfredi, Xiaolan Zhang et al.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been successfully used to design forwarding strategies for multi-hop mobile wireless networks. While such strategies can be used directly for networks with varied connectivity and dynamic conditions, developing generalizable approaches that are effective on scenarios significantly different from the training environment remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a framework to address the challenge of generalizability by (i) developing a generalizable base model considering diverse mobile network scenarios, and (ii) using the generalizable base model for new scenarios, and when needed, fine-tuning the base model using a small amount of data from the new scenarios. To support this framework, we first design new features to characterize network variation and feature quality, thereby improving the information used in DRL-based forwarding decisions. We then develop a continual learning (CL) approach able to train DRL models across diverse network scenarios without ``catastrophic forgetting.'' Using extensive evaluation, including real-world scenarios in two cities, we show that our approach is generalizable to unseen mobility scenarios. Compared to a state-of-the-art heuristic forwarding strategy, it leads to up to 78% reduction in delay, 24% improvement in delivery rate, and comparable or slightly higher number of forwards.

Tianyang Luo, Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song

Why do trillion-dollar tech giants AAPL and MSFT diverge into different response patterns during market disruptions despite identical sector classifications? This paradox reveals a fundamental limitation: traditional community detection methods fail to capture synchronization-desynchronization patterns where entities move independently yet align during critical moments. To this end, we introduce FTSCommDetector, implementing our Temporal Coherence Architecture (TCA) to discover similar and dissimilar communities in continuous multivariate time series. Unlike existing methods that process each timestamp independently, causing unstable community assignments and missing evolving relationships, our approach maintains coherence through dual-scale encoding and static topology with dynamic attention. Furthermore, we establish information-theoretic foundations demonstrating how scale separation maximizes complementary information and introduce Normalized Temporal Profiles (NTP) for scale-invariant evaluation. As a result, FTSCommDetector achieves consistent improvements across four diverse financial markets (SP100, SP500, SP1000, Nikkei 225), with gains ranging from 3.5% to 11.1% over the strongest baselines. The method demonstrates remarkable robustness with only 2% performance variation across window sizes from 60 to 120 days, making dataset-specific tuning unnecessary, providing practical insights for portfolio construction and risk management.

Guiquan Sun, Xikun Zhang, Jingchao Ni et al.

Heterogeneous graph neural networks have seen rapid progress in web applications such as social networks, knowledge graphs, and recommendation systems, driven by the inherent heterogeneity of web data. However, existing methods typically assume static graphs, while real-world graphs are continuously evolving. This dynamic nature requires models to adapt to new data while preserving existing knowledge. To this end, this work introduces HERO (HEterogeneous continual gRaph learning via meta-knOwledge distillation), a unified framework for continual learning on heterogeneous graphs. HERO employs meta-adaptation, a gradient-based meta-learning strategy that provides directional guidance for rapid adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. To enable efficient and effective knowledge reuse, we propose DiSCo (Diversity Sampling with semantic Consistency), a heterogeneity-aware sampling method that maximizes target node diversity and expands subgraphs along metapaths, retaining critical semantic and structural information with minimal overhead. Furthermore, HERO incorporates heterogeneity-aware knowledge distillation, which aligns knowledge at both the node and semantic levels to balance adaptation and retention across tasks. Extensive experiments on four web-related heterogeneous graph benchmarks demonstrate that HERO substantially mitigates catastrophic forgetting while achieving efficient and consistent knowledge reuse in dynamic web environments.

Zijie Pan, Stepan Gordeev, Jiahui Zhao et al.

This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introduces a two-stage approach combining explainable machine learning and factorization models. The first stage employs SHAP Explainer for effective variable selection, identifying key provisions in PTAs, while the second stage utilizes Factorization Machine models to analyze the pairwise interaction effects of these provisions on trade flows. By analyzing comprehensive datasets, the paper demonstrates the efficacy of this approach. The findings not only enhance the predictive accuracy of trade flow models but also offer deeper insights into the complex dynamics of international trade, influenced by specific bilateral trade provisions.

Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song, Yixin Chen et al.

Memory replay based techniques have shown great success for continual learning with incrementally accumulated Euclidean data. Directly applying them to continually expanding networks, however, leads to the potential memory explosion problem due to the need to buffer representative nodes and their associated topological neighborhood structures. To this end, we systematically analyze the key challenges in the memory explosion problem, and present a general framework, \textit{i.e.}, Parameter Decoupled Graph Neural Networks (PDGNNs) with Topology-aware Embedding Memory (TEM), to tackle this issue. The proposed framework not only reduces the memory space complexity from $\mathcal{O}(nd^L)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n)$~\footnote{$n$: memory budget, $d$: average node degree, $L$: the radius of the GNN receptive field}, but also fully utilizes the topological information for memory replay. Specifically, PDGNNs decouple trainable parameters from the computation ego-subnetwork via \textit{Topology-aware Embeddings} (TEs), which compress ego-subnetworks into compact vectors (\textit{i.e.}, TEs) to reduce the memory consumption. Based on this framework, we discover a unique \textit{pseudo-training effect} in continual learning on expanding networks and this effect motivates us to develop a novel \textit{coverage maximization sampling} strategy that can enhance the performance with a tight memory budget. Thorough empirical studies demonstrate that, by tackling the memory explosion problem and incorporating topological information into memory replay, PDGNNs with TEM significantly outperform state-of-the-art techniques, especially in the challenging class-incremental setting.

Jurijs Nazarovs, Cristian Lumezanu, Qianying Ren et al.

In this paper, we propose an ordered time series classification framework that is robust against missing classes in the training data, i.e., during testing we can prescribe classes that are missing during training. This framework relies on two main components: (1) our newly proposed ordinal-quadruplet loss, which forces the model to learn latent representation while preserving the ordinal relation among labels, (2) testing procedure, which utilizes the property of latent representation (order preservation). We conduct experiments based on real world multivariate time series data and show the significant improvement in the prediction of missing labels even with 40% of the classes are missing from training. Compared with the well-known triplet loss optimization augmented with interpolation for missing information, in some cases, we nearly double the accuracy.

Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song, Dacheng Tao

Despite significant advances in graph representation learning, little attention has been paid to the more practical continual learning scenario in which new categories of nodes (e.g., new research areas in citation networks, or new types of products in co-purchasing networks) and their associated edges are continuously emerging, causing catastrophic forgetting on previous categories. Existing methods either ignore the rich topological information or sacrifice plasticity for stability. To this end, we present Hierarchical Prototype Networks (HPNs) which extract different levels of abstract knowledge in the form of prototypes to represent the continuously expanded graphs. Specifically, we first leverage a set of Atomic Feature Extractors (AFEs) to encode both the elemental attribute information and the topological structure of the target node. Next, we develop HPNs to adaptively select relevant AFEs and represent each node with three levels of prototypes. In this way, whenever a new category of nodes is given, only the relevant AFEs and prototypes at each level will be activated and refined, while others remain uninterrupted to maintain the performance over existing nodes. Theoretically, we first demonstrate that the memory consumption of HPNs is bounded regardless of how many tasks are encountered. Then, we prove that under mild constraints, learning new tasks will not alter the prototypes matched to previous data, thereby eliminating the forgetting problem. The theoretical results are supported by experiments on five datasets, showing that HPNs not only outperform state-of-the-art baseline techniques but also consume relatively less memory.

Xinyang Feng, Dongjin Song, Yuncong Chen et al.

Detecting abnormal activities in real-world surveillance videos is an important yet challenging task as the prior knowledge about video anomalies is usually limited or unavailable. Despite that many approaches have been developed to resolve this problem, few of them can capture the normal spatio-temporal patterns effectively and efficiently. Moreover, existing works seldom explicitly consider the local consistency at frame level and global coherence of temporal dynamics in video sequences. To this end, we propose Convolutional Transformer based Dual Discriminator Generative Adversarial Networks (CT-D2GAN) to perform unsupervised video anomaly detection. Specifically, we first present a convolutional transformer to perform future frame prediction. It contains three key components, i.e., a convolutional encoder to capture the spatial information of the input video clips, a temporal self-attention module to encode the temporal dynamics, and a convolutional decoder to integrate spatio-temporal features and predict the future frame. Next, a dual discriminator based adversarial training procedure, which jointly considers an image discriminator that can maintain the local consistency at frame-level and a video discriminator that can enforce the global coherence of temporal dynamics, is employed to enhance the future frame prediction. Finally, the prediction error is used to identify abnormal video frames. Thoroughly empirical studies on three public video anomaly detection datasets, i.e., UCSD Ped2, CUHK Avenue, and Shanghai Tech Campus, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adversarial spatio-temporal modeling framework.

Liang Tong, Zhengzhang Chen, Jingchao Ni et al.

We present FACESEC, a framework for fine-grained robustness evaluation of face recognition systems. FACESEC evaluation is performed along four dimensions of adversarial modeling: the nature of perturbation (e.g., pixel-level or face accessories), the attacker's system knowledge (about training data and learning architecture), goals (dodging or impersonation), and capability (tailored to individual inputs or across sets of these). We use FACESEC to study five face recognition systems in both closed-set and open-set settings, and to evaluate the state-of-the-art approach for defending against physically realizable attacks on these. We find that accurate knowledge of neural architecture is significantly more important than knowledge of the training data in black-box attacks. Moreover, we observe that open-set face recognition systems are more vulnerable than closed-set systems under different types of attacks. The efficacy of attacks for other threat model variations, however, appears highly dependent on both the nature of perturbation and the neural network architecture. For example, attacks that involve adversarial face masks are usually more potent, even against adversarially trained models, and the ArcFace architecture tends to be more robust than the others.

Dongsheng Luo, Wei Cheng, Jingchao Ni et al.

We present a contrasting learning approach with data augmentation techniques to learn document representations in an unsupervised manner. Inspired by recent contrastive self-supervised learning algorithms used for image and NLP pretraining, we hypothesize that high-quality document embedding should be invariant to diverse paraphrases that preserve the semantics of the original document. With different backbones and contrastive learning frameworks, our study reveals the enormous benefits of contrastive augmentation for document representation learning with two additional insights: 1) including data augmentation in a contrastive way can substantially improve the embedding quality in unsupervised document representation learning, and 2) in general, stochastic augmentations generated by simple word-level manipulation work much better than sentence-level and document-level ones. We plug our method into a classifier and compare it with a broad range of baseline methods on six benchmark datasets. Our method can decrease the classification error rate by up to 6.4% over the SOTA approaches on the document classification task, matching or even surpassing fully-supervised methods.

Yinjun Wu, Jingchao Ni, Wei Cheng et al.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Yang Jiao, Kai Yang, Shaoyu Dou et al.

Multivariate time series (MTS) data are becoming increasingly ubiquitous in diverse domains, e.g., IoT systems, health informatics, and 5G networks. To obtain an effective representation of MTS data, it is not only essential to consider unpredictable dynamics and highly variable lengths of these data but also important to address the irregularities in the sampling rates of MTS. Existing parametric approaches rely on manual hyperparameter tuning and may cost a huge amount of labor effort. Therefore, it is desirable to learn the representation automatically and efficiently. To this end, we propose an autonomous representation learning approach for multivariate time series (TimeAutoML) with irregular sampling rates and variable lengths. As opposed to previous works, we first present a representation learning pipeline in which the configuration and hyperparameter optimization are fully automatic and can be tailored for various tasks, e.g., anomaly detection, clustering, etc. Next, a negative sample generation approach and an auxiliary classification task are developed and integrated within TimeAutoML to enhance its representation capability. Extensive empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed TimeAutoML outperforms competing approaches on various tasks by a large margin. In fact, it achieves the best anomaly detection performance among all comparison algorithms on 78 out of all 85 UCR datasets, acquiring up to 20% performance improvement in terms of AUC score.

Xin Dong, Jingchao Ni, Wei Cheng et al.

Recently, recommender systems have been able to emit substantially improved recommendations by leveraging user-provided reviews. Existing methods typically merge all reviews of a given user or item into a long document, and then process user and item documents in the same manner. In practice, however, these two sets of reviews are notably different: users' reviews reflect a variety of items that they have bought and are hence very heterogeneous in their topics, while an item's reviews pertain only to that single item and are thus topically homogeneous. In this work, we develop a novel neural network model that properly accounts for this important difference by means of asymmetric attentive modules. The user module learns to attend to only those signals that are relevant with respect to the target item, whereas the item module learns to extract the most salient contents with regard to properties of the item. Our multi-hierarchical paradigm accounts for the fact that neither are all reviews equally useful, nor are all sentences within each review equally pertinent. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Chuxu Zhang, Dongjin Song, Yuncong Chen et al.

Nowadays, multivariate time series data are increasingly collected in various real world systems, e.g., power plants, wearable devices, etc. Anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series refer to identifying abnormal status in certain time steps and pinpointing the root causes. Building such a system, however, is challenging since it not only requires to capture the temporal dependency in each time series, but also need encode the inter-correlations between different pairs of time series. In addition, the system should be robust to noise and provide operators with different levels of anomaly scores based upon the severity of different incidents. Despite the fact that a number of unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms have been developed, few of them can jointly address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Scale Convolutional Recurrent Encoder-Decoder (MSCRED), to perform anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series data. Specifically, MSCRED first constructs multi-scale (resolution) signature matrices to characterize multiple levels of the system statuses in different time steps. Subsequently, given the signature matrices, a convolutional encoder is employed to encode the inter-sensor (time series) correlations and an attention based Convolutional Long-Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network is developed to capture the temporal patterns. Finally, based upon the feature maps which encode the inter-sensor correlations and temporal information, a convolutional decoder is used to reconstruct the input signature matrices and the residual signature matrices are further utilized to detect and diagnose anomalies. Extensive empirical studies based on a synthetic dataset and a real power plant dataset demonstrate that MSCRED can outperform state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Yao Qin, Dongjin Song, Haifeng Chen et al.

The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them can capture the long-term temporal dependencies appropriately and select the relevant driving series to make predictions. In this paper, we propose a dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network (DA-RNN) to address these two issues. In the first stage, we introduce an input attention mechanism to adaptively extract relevant driving series (a.k.a., input features) at each time step by referring to the previous encoder hidden state. In the second stage, we use a temporal attention mechanism to select relevant encoder hidden states across all time steps. With this dual-stage attention scheme, our model can not only make predictions effectively, but can also be easily interpreted. Thorough empirical studies based upon the SML 2010 dataset and the NASDAQ 100 Stock dataset demonstrate that the DA-RNN can outperform state-of-the-art methods for time series prediction.

Martin Renqiang Min, Hongyu Guo, Dongjin Song

Metric learning methods for dimensionality reduction in combination with k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) have been extensively deployed in many classification, data embedding, and information retrieval applications. However, most of these approaches involve pairwise training data comparisons, and thus have quadratic computational complexity with respect to the size of training set, preventing them from scaling to fairly big datasets. Moreover, during testing, comparing test data against all the training data points is also expensive in terms of both computational cost and resources required. Furthermore, previous metrics are either too constrained or too expressive to be well learned. To effectively solve these issues, we present an exemplar-centered supervised shallow parametric data embedding model, using a Maximally Collapsing Metric Learning (MCML) objective. Our strategy learns a shallow high-order parametric embedding function and compares training/test data only with learned or precomputed exemplars, resulting in a cost function with linear computational complexity for both training and testing. We also empirically demonstrate, using several benchmark datasets, that for classification in two-dimensional embedding space, our approach not only gains speedup of kNN by hundreds of times, but also outperforms state-of-the-art supervised embedding approaches.

Martin Renqiang Min, Hongyu Guo, Dongjin Song

Explicit high-order feature interactions efficiently capture essential structural knowledge about the data of interest and have been used for constructing generative models. We present a supervised discriminative High-Order Parametric Embedding (HOPE) approach to data visualization and compression. Compared to deep embedding models with complicated deep architectures, HOPE generates more effective high-order feature mapping through an embarrassingly simple shallow model. Furthermore, two approaches to generating a small number of exemplars conveying high-order interactions to represent large-scale data sets are proposed. These exemplars in combination with the feature mapping learned by HOPE effectively capture essential data variations. Moreover, through HOPE, these exemplars are employed to increase the computational efficiency of kNN classification for fast information retrieval by thousands of times. For classification in two-dimensional embedding space on MNIST and USPS datasets, our shallow method HOPE with simple Sigmoid transformations significantly outperforms state-of-the-art supervised deep embedding models based on deep neural networks, and even achieved historically low test error rate of 0.65% in two-dimensional space on MNIST, which demonstrates the representational efficiency and power of supervised shallow models with high-order feature interactions.