Kizito Salako

Enrico Lopedoto, Maksim Shekhunov, Vitaly Aksenov et al.

In this work, we introduce a novel approach to regularization in multivariable regression problems. Our regularizer, called DLoss, penalises differences between the model's derivatives and derivatives of the data generating function as estimated from the training data. We call these estimated derivatives data derivatives. The goal of our method is to align the model to the data, not only in terms of target values but also in terms of the derivatives involved. To estimate data derivatives, we select (from the training data) 2-tuples of input-value pairs, using either nearest neighbour or random, selection. On synthetic and real datasets, we evaluate the effectiveness of adding DLoss, with different weights, to the standard mean squared error loss. The experimental results show that with DLoss (using nearest neighbour selection) we obtain, on average, the best rank with respect to MSE on validation data sets, compared to no regularization, L2 regularization, and Dropout.

Xingyu Zhao, Kizito Salako, Lorenzo Strigini et al.

Context: Demonstrating high reliability and safety for safety-critical systems (SCSs) remains a hard problem. Diverse evidence needs to be combined in a rigorous way: in particular, results of operational testing with other evidence from design and verification. Growing use of machine learning in SCSs, by precluding most established methods for gaining assurance, makes operational testing even more important for supporting safety and reliability claims. Objective: We use Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) as a current example to revisit the problem of demonstrating high reliability. AVs are making their debut on public roads: methods for assessing whether an AV is safe enough are urgently needed. We demonstrate how to answer 5 questions that would arise in assessing an AV type, starting with those proposed by a highly-cited study. Method: We apply new theorems extending Conservative Bayesian Inference (CBI), which exploit the rigour of Bayesian methods while reducing the risk of involuntary misuse associated with now-common applications of Bayesian inference; we define additional conditions needed for applying these methods to AVs. Results: Prior knowledge can bring substantial advantages if the AV design allows strong expectations of safety before road testing. We also show how naive attempts at conservative assessment may lead to over-optimism instead; why extrapolating the trend of disengagements is not suitable for safety claims; use of knowledge that an AV has moved to a less stressful environment. Conclusion: While some reliability targets will remain too high to be practically verifiable, CBI removes a major source of doubt: it allows use of prior knowledge without inducing dangerously optimistic biases. For certain ranges of required reliability and prior beliefs, CBI thus supports feasible, sound arguments. Useful conservative claims can be derived from limited prior knowledge.