Osonde Osoba

Saikrishna Badrinarayanan, Osonde Osoba, Miao Cheng et al.

AI fairness measurements, including tests for equal treatment, often take the form of disaggregated evaluations of AI systems. Such measurements are an important part of Responsible AI operations. These measurements compare system performance across demographic groups or sub-populations and typically require member-level demographic signals such as gender, race, ethnicity, and location. However, sensitive member-level demographic attributes like race and ethnicity can be challenging to obtain and use due to platform choices, legal constraints, and cultural norms. In this paper, we focus on the task of enabling AI fairness measurements on race/ethnicity for \emph{U.S. LinkedIn members} in a privacy-preserving manner. We present the Privacy-Preserving Probabilistic Race/Ethnicity Estimation (PPRE) method for performing this task. PPRE combines the Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) model, a sparse LinkedIn survey sample of self-reported demographics, and privacy-enhancing technologies like secure two-party computation and differential privacy to enable meaningful fairness measurements while preserving member privacy. We provide details of the PPRE method and its privacy guarantees. We then illustrate sample measurement operations. We conclude with a review of open research and engineering challenges for expanding our privacy-preserving fairness measurement capabilities.

Gavin S. Hartnett, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker et al.

Network data is increasingly being used in quantitative, data-driven public policy research. These are typically very rich datasets that contain complex correlations and inter-dependencies. This richness both promises to be quite useful for policy research, while at the same time posing a challenge for the useful extraction of information from these datasets - a challenge which calls for new data analysis methods. In this report, we formulate a research agenda of key methodological problems whose solutions would enable new advances across many areas of policy research. We then review recent advances in applying deep learning to network data, and show how these methods may be used to address many of the methodological problems we identified. We particularly emphasize deep generative methods, which can be used to generate realistic synthetic networks useful for microsimulation and agent-based models capable of informing key public policy questions. We extend these recent advances by developing a new generative framework which applies to large social contact networks commonly used in epidemiological modeling. For context, we also compare and contrast these recent neural network-based approaches with the more traditional Exponential Random Graph Models. Lastly, we discuss some open problems where more progress is needed.

Shiva Navabi, Osonde A. Osoba

We consider a pursuit-evasion game [11] played between two agents, 'Blue' (the pursuer) and 'Red' (the evader), over $T$ time steps. Red aims to attack Blue's territory. Blue's objective is to intercept Red by time $T$ and thereby limit the success of Red's attack. Blue must plan its pursuit trajectory by choosing parameters that determine its course of movement (speed and angle in our setup) such that it intercepts Red by time $T$. We show that Blue's path-planning problem in pursuing Red, can be posed as a sequential decision making problem under uncertainty. Blue's unawareness of Red's action policy renders the analytic dynamic programming approach intractable for finding the optimal action policy for Blue. In this work, we are interested in exploring data-driven approaches to the policy optimization problem that Blue faces. We apply generative machine learning (ML) approaches to learn optimal action policies for Blue. This highlights the ability of generative ML model to learn the relevant implicit representations for the dynamics of simulated pursuit-evasion games. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling approach via extensive statistical assessments. This work can be viewed as a preliminary step towards further adoption of generative modeling approaches for addressing policy optimization problems that arise in the context of multi-agent learning and planning [1].

Osonde A. Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, Justin Grana et al.

Agent-based Models (ABMs) are valuable tools for policy analysis. ABMs help analysts explore the emergent consequences of policy interventions in multi-agent decision-making settings. But the validity of inferences drawn from ABM explorations depends on the quality of the ABM agents' behavioral models. Standard specifications of agent behavioral models rely either on heuristic decision-making rules or on regressions trained on past data. Both prior specification modes have limitations. This paper examines the value of reinforcement learning (RL) models as adaptive, high-performing, and behaviorally-valid models of agent decision-making in ABMs. We test the hypothesis that RL agents are effective as utility-maximizing agents in policy ABMs. We also address the problem of adapting RL algorithms to handle multi-agency in games by adapting and extending methods from recent literature. We evaluate the performance of such RL-based ABM agents via experiments on two policy-relevant ABMs: a minority game ABM, and an ABM of Influenza Transmission. We run some analytic experiments on our AI-equipped ABMs e.g. explorations of the effects of behavioral heterogeneity in a population and the emergence of synchronization in a population. The experiments show that RL behavioral models are effective at producing reward-seeking or reward-maximizing behaviors in ABM agents. Furthermore, RL behavioral models can learn to outperform the default adaptive behavioral models in the two ABMs examined.

Osonde Osoba, Bart Kosko

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loops or cycles directly model causal feedback. Their nonlinear dynamics permit forward-chaining inference from input causes and policy options to output effects. Users can add detailed dynamics and feedback links directly to the causal model or infer them with statistical learning laws. Users can fuse or combine FCMs from multiple experts by weighting and adding the underlying fuzzy edge matrices and do so recursively if needed. The combined FCM tends to better represent domain knowledge as the expert sample size increases if the expert sample approximates a random sample. Many causal models use more restrictive directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian probabilities. DAGs do not model causal feedback because they do not contain closed loops. Combining DAGs also tends to produce cycles and thus tends not to produce a new DAG. Combining DAGs tends to produce a FCM. FCM causal influence is also transitive whereas probabilistic causal influence is not transitive in general. Overall: FCMs trade the numerical precision of probabilistic DAGs for pattern prediction, faster and scalable computation, ease of combination, and richer feedback representation. We show how FCMs can apply to problems of public support for insurgency and terrorism and to US-China conflict relations in Graham Allison's Thucydides-trap framework. The appendix gives the textual justification of the Thucydides-trap FCM. It also extends our earlier theorem [Osoba-Kosko2017] to a more general result that shows the transitive and total causal influence that upstream concept nodes exert on downstream nodes.

Osonde Osoba, Bart Kosko

We present a noise-injected version of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm: the Noisy Expectation Maximization (NEM) algorithm. The NEM algorithm uses noise to speed up the convergence of the EM algorithm. The NEM theorem shows that injected noise speeds up the average convergence of the EM algorithm to a local maximum of the likelihood surface if a positivity condition holds. The generalized form of the noisy expectation-maximization (NEM) algorithm allow for arbitrary modes of noise injection including adding and multiplying noise to the data. We demonstrate these noise benefits on EM algorithms for the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with both additive and multiplicative NEM noise injection. A separate theorem (not presented here) shows that the noise benefit for independent identically distributed additive noise decreases with sample size in mixture models. This theorem implies that the noise benefit is most pronounced if the data is sparse. Injecting blind noise only slowed convergence.

Osonde Adekorede Osoba

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum likelihood estimates from corrupted or incomplete data. The convergence speed-up is an example of a noise benefit or "stochastic resonance" in statistical signal processing. The dissertation presents derivations of sufficient conditions for such noise-benefits and demonstrates the speed-up in some ubiquitous signal-processing algorithms. These algorithms include parameter estimation for mixture models, the $k$-means clustering algorithm, the Baum-Welch algorithm for training hidden Markov models, and backpropagation for training feedforward artificial neural networks. This dissertation also analyses the effects of data and model corruption on the more general Bayesian inference estimation framework. The main finding is a theorem guaranteeing that uniform approximators for Bayesian model functions produce uniform approximators for the posterior pdf via Bayes theorem. This result also applies to hierarchical and multidimensional Bayesian models.