Omar Skali Lami

Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis, Michael Linghzi Li et al.

We present the framework of slowly varying regression under sparsity, allowing sparse regression models to exhibit slow and sparse variations. The problem of parameter estimation is formulated as a mixed-integer optimization problem. We demonstrate that it can be precisely reformulated as a binary convex optimization problem through a novel relaxation technique. This relaxation involves a new equality on Moore-Penrose inverses, convexifying the non-convex objective function while matching the original objective on all feasible binary points. This enables us to efficiently solve the problem to provable optimality using a cutting plane-type algorithm. We develop a highly optimized implementation of this algorithm, substantially improving upon the asymptotic computational complexity of a straightforward implementation. Additionally, we propose a fast heuristic method that guarantees a feasible solution and, as empirically illustrated, produces high-quality warm-start solutions for the binary optimization problem. To tune the framework's hyperparameters, we suggest a practical procedure relying on binary search that, under certain assumptions, is guaranteed to recover the true model parameters. On both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that the resulting algorithm outperforms competing formulations in comparable times across various metrics, including estimation accuracy, predictive power, and computational time. The algorithm is highly scalable, allowing us to train models with thousands of parameters. Our implementation is available open-source at https://github.com/vvdigalakis/SSVRegression.git.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory Wright et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemic's spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to re-allocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and equitable vaccine distribution planning at a major pharmaceutical company, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Control's pandemic forecast.