Megan Stanley

Krzysztof Maziarz, Austin Tripp, Guoqing Liu et al.

Automated Synthesis Planning has recently re-emerged as a research area at the intersection of chemistry and machine learning. Despite the appearance of steady progress, we argue that imperfect benchmarks and inconsistent comparisons mask systematic shortcomings of existing techniques, and unnecessarily hamper progress. To remedy this, we present a synthesis planning library with an extensive benchmarking framework, called syntheseus, which promotes best practice by default, enabling consistent meaningful evaluation of single-step models and multi-step planning algorithms. We demonstrate the capabilities of syntheseus by re-evaluating several previous retrosynthesis algorithms, and find that the ranking of state-of-the-art models changes in controlled evaluation experiments. We end with guidance for future works in this area, and call the community to engage in the discussion on how to improve benchmarks for synthesis planning.

Giulia Luise, Chin-Wei Huang, Thijs Vogels et al.

Density Functional Theory (DFT) is the most widely used electronic structure method for predicting the properties of molecules and materials. Although DFT is, in principle, an exact reformulation of the Schrödinger equation, practical applications rely on approximations to the unknown exchange-correlation (XC) functional. Most existing XC functionals are constructed using a limited set of increasingly complex, hand-crafted features that improve accuracy at the expense of computational efficiency. Yet, no current approximation achieves the accuracy and generality for predictive modeling of laboratory experiments at chemical accuracy -- typically defined as errors below 1 kcal/mol. In this work, we present Skala, a modern deep learning-based XC functional that bypasses expensive hand-designed features by learning representations directly from data. Skala achieves chemical accuracy for atomization energies of small molecules while retaining the computational efficiency typical of semi-local DFT. This performance is enabled by training on an unprecedented volume of high-accuracy reference data generated using computationally intensive wavefunction-based methods. Notably, Skala systematically improves with additional training data covering diverse chemistry. By incorporating a modest amount of additional high-accuracy data tailored to chemistry beyond atomization energies, Skala achieves accuracy competitive with the best-performing hybrid functionals across general main group chemistry, at the cost of semi-local DFT. As the training dataset continues to expand, Skala is poised to further enhance the predictive power of first-principles simulations.

Cristian Bodnar, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Ana Lucic et al.

Reliable forecasts of the Earth system are crucial for human progress and safety from natural disasters. Artificial intelligence offers substantial potential to improve prediction accuracy and computational efficiency in this field, however this remains underexplored in many domains. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model for the Earth system trained on over a million hours of diverse data. Aurora outperforms operational forecasts for air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone tracks, and high-resolution weather forecasting at orders of magnitude smaller computational expense than dedicated existing systems. With the ability to fine-tune Aurora to diverse application domains at only modest computational cost, Aurora represents significant progress in making actionable Earth system predictions accessible to anyone.

Christopher Frye, Damien de Mijolla, Tom Begley et al.

Explainability in AI is crucial for model development, compliance with regulation, and providing operational nuance to predictions. The Shapley framework for explainability attributes a model's predictions to its input features in a mathematically principled and model-agnostic way. However, general implementations of Shapley explainability make an untenable assumption: that the model's features are uncorrelated. In this work, we demonstrate unambiguous drawbacks of this assumption and develop two solutions to Shapley explainability that respect the data manifold. One solution, based on generative modelling, provides flexible access to data imputations; the other directly learns the Shapley value-function, providing performance and stability at the cost of flexibility. While "off-manifold" Shapley values can (i) give rise to incorrect explanations, (ii) hide implicit model dependence on sensitive attributes, and (iii) lead to unintelligible explanations in higher-dimensional data, on-manifold explainability overcomes these problems.