Giulio Isacchini

Giulio Isacchini, Natanael Spisak, Armita Nourmohammad et al.

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio, or equivalently the posterior function. Here we frame the inference task as an estimation of an energy function parametrized with an artificial neural network. We present an intuitive approach where the optimal model of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio is found by maximizing the likelihood of simulated data. Within this framework, the connection between the task of simulation-based inference and mutual information maximization is clear, and we show how several known methods of posterior estimation relate to alternative lower bounds to mutual information. These distinct objective functions aim at the same optimal energy form and therefore can be directly benchmarked. We compare their accuracy in the inference of model parameters, focusing on four dynamical systems that encompass common challenges in time series analysis: dynamics driven by multiplicative noise, nonlinear interactions, chaotic behavior, and high-dimensional parameter space.

Gabriel Mahuas, Giulio Isacchini, Olivier Marre et al.

Generalized linear models are one of the most efficient paradigms for predicting the correlated stochastic activity of neuronal networks in response to external stimuli, with applications in many brain areas. However, when dealing with complex stimuli, the inferred coupling parameters often do not generalize across different stimulus statistics, leading to degraded performance and blowup instabilities. Here, we develop a two-step inference strategy that allows us to train robust generalized linear models of interacting neurons, by explicitly separating the effects of correlations in the stimulus from network interactions in each training step. Applying this approach to the responses of retinal ganglion cells to complex visual stimuli, we show that, compared to classical methods, the models trained in this way exhibit improved performance, are more stable, yield robust interaction networks, and generalize well across complex visual statistics. The method can be extended to deep convolutional neural networks, leading to models with high predictive accuracy for both the neuron firing rates and their correlations.

Vahid Moosavi, Giulio Isacchini

The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. Using the recently available world input-output database, we modeled the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average monetary flow.