Clémentine Prieur

Art B. Owen, Clémentine Prieur

This paper makes the case for using Shapley value to quantify the importance of random input variables to a function. Alternatives based on the ANOVA decomposition can run into conceptual and computational problems when the input variables are dependent. Our main goal here is to show that Shapley value removes the conceptual problems. We do this with some simple examples where Shapley value leads to intuitively reasonable nearly closed form values.

Pierre Etoré, Clémentine Prieur, Dang Khoi Pham et al.

Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest. One of the statistical tools used to quantify the influence of each input variable on the quantity of interest are the Sobol' sensitivity indices. In this paper, we consider stochastic models described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). We focus the study on mean quantities, defined as the expectation with respect to the Wiener measure of a quantity of interest related to the solution of the SDE itself. Our approach is based on a Feynman-Kac representation of the quantity of interest, from which we get a parametrized partial differential equation (PDE) representation of our initial problem. We then handle the uncertainty on the parametrized PDE using polynomial chaos expansion and a stochastic Galerkin projection.

Alexandre Janon, Maëlle Nodet, Clémentine Prieur

The reduced basis method is a powerful model reduction technique designed to speed up the computation of multiple numerical solutions of parametrized partial differential equations. We consider a quantity of interest, which is a linear functional of the PDE solution. A new probabilistic error bound for the reduced model is proposed. It is efficiently and explicitly computable, and we show on different examples that this error bound is sharper than existing ones. We include application of our work to sensitivity analysis studies.

Marie Billaud-Friess, Arthur Macherey, Anthony Nouy et al.

This paper considers the problem of maximizing an expectation function over a finite set, or finite-arm bandit problem. We first propose a naive stochastic bandit algorithm for obtaining a probably approximately correct (PAC) solution to this discrete optimization problem in relative precision, that is a solution which solves the optimization problem up to a relative error smaller than a prescribed tolerance, with high probability. We also propose an adaptive stochastic bandit algorithm which provides a PAC-solution with the same guarantees. The adaptive algorithm outperforms the mean complexity of the naive algorithm in terms of number of generated samples and is particularly well suited for applications with high sampling cost.

Marie Billaud-Friess, Arthur Macherey, Anthony Nouy et al.

We propose algorithms for solving high-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) that combine a probabilistic interpretation of PDEs, through Feynman-Kac representation, with sparse interpolation. Monte-Carlo methods and time-integration schemes are used to estimate pointwise evaluations of the solution of a PDE. We use a sequential control variates algorithm, where control variates are constructed based on successive approximations of the solution of the PDE. Two different algorithms are proposed, combining in different ways the sequential control variates algorithm and adaptive sparse interpolation. Numerical examples will illustrate the behavior of these algorithms.