Charles W. L. Gadd

Charles Gadd, Markus Heinonen, Harri Lähdesmäki et al.

Reinforcement learning provides a framework for learning to control which actions to take towards completing a task through trial-and-error. In many applications observing interactions is costly, necessitating sample-efficient learning. In model-based reinforcement learning efficiency is improved by learning to simulate the world dynamics. The challenge is that model inaccuracies rapidly accumulate over planned trajectories. We introduce deep Gaussian processes where the depth of the compositions introduces model complexity while incorporating prior knowledge on the dynamics brings smoothness and structure. Our approach is able to sample a Bayesian posterior over trajectories. We demonstrate highly improved early sample-efficiency over competing methods. This is shown across a number of continuous control tasks, including the half-cheetah whose contact dynamics have previously posed an insurmountable problem for earlier sample-efficient Gaussian process based models.

Charles W. L. Gadd, Sara Wade, Alexis Boukouvalas

Mixtures of experts probabilistically divide the input space into regions, where the assumptions of each expert, or conditional model, need only hold locally. Combined with Gaussian process (GP) experts, this results in a powerful and highly flexible model. We focus on alternative mixtures of GP experts, which model the joint distribution of the inputs and targets explicitly. We highlight issues of this approach in multi-dimensional input spaces, namely, poor scalability and the need for an unnecessarily large number of experts, degrading the predictive performance and increasing uncertainty. We construct a novel model to address these issues through a nested partitioning scheme that automatically infers the number of components at both levels. Multiple response types are accommodated through a generalised GP framework, while multiple input types are included through a factorised exponential family structure. We show the effectiveness of our approach in estimating a parsimonious probabilistic description of both synthetic data of increasing dimension and an Alzheimer's challenge dataset.

Charles Gadd, Sara Wade, Akeel Shah et al.

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo estimate for the marginal likelihood that approximately integrates over the latent variables. This is used to construct a Markov Chain to explore the posterior of the hyperparameters. We demonstrate the procedure on simulated and real examples, showing its ability to capture uncertainty and multimodality of the hyperparameters and improved uncertainty quantification in predictions when compared with variational inference.