Deshendran Moodley

Mbithe Nzomo, Deshendran Moodley

In recent years, there has been an increased focus on early detection, prevention, and prediction of diseases. This, together with advances in sensor technology and the Internet of Things, has led to accelerated efforts in the development of personal health monitoring systems. This study analyses the state of the art in the use of Semantic Web technologies in sensor-based personal health monitoring systems. Using a systematic approach, a total of 48 systems are selected as representative of the current state of the art. We critically analyse the extent to which the selected systems address seven key challenges: interoperability, situation detection, situation prediction, decision support, context awareness, explainability, and uncertainty handling. We discuss the role and limitations of Semantic Web technologies in managing each challenge. We then conduct a quality assessment of the selected systems based on the data and devices used, system and components development, rigour of evaluation, and accessibility of research outputs. Finally, we propose a reference architecture to provide guidance for the design and development of new systems. This study provides a comprehensive mapping of the field, identifies inadequacies in the state of the art, and provides recommendations for future research.

Henok Tenaw Moges, Deshendran Moodley

We propose Lite-STGNN, a lightweight spatial-temporal graph neural network for long-term multivariate forecasting that integrates decomposition-based temporal modeling with learnable sparse graph structure. The temporal module applies trend-seasonal decomposition, while the spatial module performs message passing with low-rank Top-$K$ adjacency learning and conservative horizon-wise gating, enabling spatial corrections that enhance a strong linear baseline. Lite-STGNN achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on four benchmark datasets for horizons up to 720 steps, while being parameter-efficient and substantially faster to train than transformer-based methods. Ablation studies show that the spatial module yields 4.6% improvement over the temporal baseline, Top-$K$ enhances locality by 3.3%, and learned adjacency matrices reveal domain-specific interaction dynamics. Lite-STGNN thus offers a compact, interpretable, and efficient framework for long-term multivariate time series forecasting.

Henok Tenaw Moges, Charalampos Skokos, Deshendran Moodley

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos ($K$), coupling strength ($\varepsilon$), and system size ($N$), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.

Mbithe Nzomo, Deshendran Moodley

Multimodal electronic health record (EHR) data is useful for disease risk prediction based on medical domain knowledge. However, general medical knowledge must be adapted to specific healthcare settings and patient populations to achieve practical clinical use. Additionally, risk prediction systems must handle uncertainty from incomplete data and non-deterministic health outcomes while remaining explainable. These challenges can be alleviated by the integration of knowledge graphs (KGs) and Bayesian networks (BNs). We present a novel approach for constructing BNs from ontology-based KGs and multimodal EHR data for explainable disease risk prediction. Through an application use case of atrial fibrillation and real-world EHR data, we demonstrate that the approach balances generalised medical knowledge with patient-specific context, effectively handles uncertainty, is highly explainable, and achieves good predictive performance.

Deshendran Moodley, Christopher Seebregts

This paper discusses and explores the potential and relevance of recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital twins for health and well-being in low-resource African countries. We use the case of public health emergency response to disease outbreaks and epidemic control. There is potential to take advantage of the increasing availability of data and digitization to develop advanced AI methods for analysis and prediction. Using an AI systems perspective, we review emerging trends in AI systems and digital twins and propose an initial augmented AI system architecture to illustrate how an AI system can work with a 3D digital twin to address public health goals. We highlight scientific knowledge discovery, continual learning, pragmatic interoperability, and interactive explanation and decision-making as essential research challenges for AI systems and digital twins.

Daniel Taylor, Jonathan Shock, Deshendran Moodley et al.

Brain Age (BA) estimation via Deep Learning has become a strong and reliable bio-marker for brain health, but the black-box nature of Neural Networks does not easily allow insight into the features of brain ageing.We trained a ResNet model as a BA regressor on T1 structural MRI volumes from a small cross-sectional cohort of 524 individuals. Using Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) and DeepLIFT saliency mapping techniques, we analysed the trained model to determine the most relevant structures for brain ageing for the network, and compare these between the saliency mapping techniques. We show the change in attribution of relevance to different brain regions through the course of ageing. A tripartite pattern of relevance attribution to brain regions emerges. Some regions increase in relevance with age (e.g. the right Transverse Temporal Gyrus); some decrease in relevance with age (e.g. the right Fourth Ventricle); and others are consistently relevant across ages. We also examine the effect of the Brain Age Gap (BAG) on the distribution of relevance within the brain volume. It is hoped that these findings will provide clinically relevant region-wise trajectories for normal brain ageing, and a baseline against which to compare brain ageing trajectories.

Kouame Hermann Kouassi, Deshendran Moodley

Recently, Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithms have been explored for predicting trends in time series data. In many real world applications, time series data are captured from dynamic systems. DNN models must provide stable performance when they are updated and retrained as new observations becomes available. In this work we explore the use of automatic machine learning techniques to automate the algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimisation process for trend prediction. We demonstrate how a recent AutoML tool, specifically the HpBandSter framework, can be effectively used to automate DNN model development. Our AutoML experiments found optimal configurations that produced models that compared well against the average performance and stability levels of configurations found during the manual experiments across four data sets.

Kouame Hermann Kouassi, Deshendran Moodley

Recently, a hybrid Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithm, TreNet was proposed for predicting trends in time series data. While TreNet was shown to have superior performance for trend prediction to other DNN and traditional ML approaches, the validation method used did not take into account the sequential nature of time series data sets and did not deal with model update. In this research we replicated the TreNet experiments on the same data sets using a walk-forward validation method and tested our optimal model over multiple independent runs to evaluate model stability. We compared the performance of the hybrid TreNet algorithm, on four data sets to vanilla DNN algorithms that take in point data, and also to traditional ML algorithms. We found that in general TreNet still performs better than the vanilla DNN models, but not on all data sets as reported in the original TreNet study. This study highlights the importance of using an appropriate validation method and evaluating model stability for evaluating and developing machine learning models for trend prediction in time series data.

Wiebke Toussaint, Deshendran Moodley

Clustering is frequently used in the energy domain to identify dominant electricity consumption patterns of households, which can be used to construct customer archetypes for long term energy planning. Selecting a useful set of clusters however requires extensive experimentation and domain knowledge. While internal clustering validation measures are well established in the electricity domain, they are limited for selecting useful clusters. Based on an application case study in South Africa, we present an approach for formalising implicit expert knowledge as external evaluation measures to create customer archetypes that capture variability in residential electricity consumption behaviour. By combining internal and external validation measures in a structured manner, we were able to evaluate clustering structures based on the utility they present for our application. We validate the selected clusters in a use case where we successfully reconstruct customer archetypes previously developed by experts. Our approach shows promise for transparent and repeatable cluster ranking and selection by data scientists, even if they have limited domain knowledge.

Wiebke Toussaint, Deshendran Moodley

During cluster analysis domain experts and visual analysis are frequently relied on to identify the optimal clustering structure. This process tends to be adhoc, subjective and difficult to reproduce. This work shows how competency questions can be used to formalise expert knowledge and application requirements for context specific evaluation of a clustering application in the residential energy consumption sector.

Gavin Rens, Deshendran Moodley

This article presents an agent architecture for controlling an autonomous agent in stochastic environments. The architecture combines the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model with the belief-desire-intention (BDI) framework. The Hybrid POMDP-BDI agent architecture takes the best features from the two approaches, that is, the online generation of reward-maximizing courses of action from POMDP theory, and sophisticated multiple goal management from BDI theory. We introduce the advances made since the introduction of the basic architecture, including (i) the ability to pursue multiple goals simultaneously and (ii) a plan library for storing pre-written plans and for storing recently generated plans for future reuse. A version of the architecture without the plan library is implemented and is evaluated using simulations. The results of the simulation experiments indicate that the approach is feasible.