Paul M. Riechers

Sarah E. Marzen, Paul M. Riechers, James P. Crutchfield

Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a "next-generation" reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano's inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least ~ 60% higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines -- specifically, large $ε$-machines -- are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.

Paul M. Riechers

We address the fundamental limits of learning unknown parameters of any stochastic process from time-series data, and discover exact closed-form expressions for how optimal inference scales with observation length. Given a parametrized class of candidate models, the Fisher information of observed sequence probabilities lower-bounds the variance in model estimation from finite data. As sequence-length increases, the minimal variance scales as the square inverse of the length -- with constant coefficient given by the information rate. We discover a simple closed-form expression for this information rate, even in the case of infinite Markov order. We furthermore obtain the exact analytic lower bound on model variance from the observation-induced metadynamic among belief states. We discover ephemeral, exponential, and more general modes of convergence to the asymptotic information rate. Surprisingly, this myopic information rate converges to the asymptotic Fisher information rate with exactly the same relaxation timescales that appear in the myopic entropy rate as it converges to the Shannon entropy rate for the process. We illustrate these results with a sequence of examples that highlight qualitatively distinct features of stochastic processes that shape optimal learning.

Adam Shai, Loren Amdahl-Culleton, Casper L. Christensen et al.

Transformers pretrained via next token prediction learn to factor their world into parts, representing these factors in orthogonal subspaces of the residual stream. We formalize two representational hypotheses: (1) a representation in the product space of all factors, whose dimension grows exponentially with the number of parts, or (2) a factored representation in orthogonal subspaces, whose dimension grows linearly. The factored representation is lossless when factors are conditionally independent, but sacrifices predictive fidelity otherwise, creating a tradeoff between dimensional efficiency and accuracy. We derive precise predictions about the geometric structure of activations for each, including the number of subspaces, their dimensionality, and the arrangement of context embeddings within them. We test between these hypotheses on transformers trained on synthetic processes with known latent structure. Models learn factored representations when factors are conditionally independent, and continue to favor them early in training even when noise or hidden dependencies undermine conditional independence, reflecting an inductive bias toward factoring at the cost of fidelity. This provides a principled explanation for why transformers decompose the world into parts, and suggests that interpretable low dimensional structure may persist even in models trained on complex data.

Paul M. Riechers, Thomas J. Elliott

To make sense of the world around us, we develop models, constructed to enable us to replicate, describe, and explain the behaviours we see. Focusing on the broad case of sequences of correlated random variables, i.e., classical stochastic processes, we tackle the question of determining whether or not two different models produce the same observable behavior. This is the problem of identifiability. Curiously, the physics of the model need not correspond to the physics of the observations; recent work has shown that it is even advantageous -- in terms of memory and thermal efficiency -- to employ quantum models to generate classical stochastic processes. We resolve the identifiability problem in this regime, providing a means to compare any two models of a classical process, be the models classical, quantum, or `post-quantum', by mapping them to a canonical `generalized' hidden Markov model. Further, this enables us to place (sometimes tight) bounds on the minimal dimension required of a quantum model to generate a given classical stochastic process.

Paul M. Riechers, Thomas J. Elliott, Adam S. Shai

We show that deep neural networks, including transformers and RNNs, pretrained as usual on next-token prediction, intrinsically discover and represent beliefs over 'quantum' and 'post-quantum' low-dimensional generative models of their training data -- as if performing iterative Bayesian updates over the latent state of this world model during inference as they observe more context. Notably, neural nets easily find these representation whereas there is no finite classical circuit that would do the job. The corresponding geometric relationships among neural activations induced by different input sequences are found to be largely independent of neural-network architecture. Each point in this geometry corresponds to a history-induced probability density over all possible futures, and the relative displacement of these points reflects the difference in mechanism and magnitude for how these distinct pasts affect the future.

Paul M. Riechers, Henry R. Bigelow, Eric A. Alt et al.

We argue that in-context learning (ICL) predictably arises from standard self-supervised next-token pretraining, rather than being an exotic emergent property. This work establishes the foundational principles of this emergence by focusing on in-distribution ICL, demonstrating how models necessarily adapt to context when trained on token sequences, especially from non-ergodic sources. Our information-theoretic framework precisely predicts these in-distribution ICL dynamics (i.e., context-dependent loss reduction). We verify this with experiments using synthetic datasets of differing types of correlational structure, reproducing characteristic phenomena like phase transitions in training loss for induction head formation and power-law scaling of in-context loss. We further show that a model's in-context performance on any task is mathematically coupled to the ensemble of tasks seen in pretraining, offering a fundamental explanation, grounded in architecture- and modality-independent principles, for such inference-time learning.

P. M. Riechers, D. P. Varn, J. P. Crutchfield

Given a description of the stacking statistics of layered close-packed structures in the form of a hidden Markov model, we develop analytical expressions for the pairwise correlation functions between the layers. These may be calculated analytically as explicit functions of model parameters or the expressions may be used as a fast, accurate, and efficient way to obtain numerical values. We present several examples, finding agreement with previous work as well as deriving new relations.