Leo Richter

Jean Kaddour, Srijan Patel, Gbètondji Dovonon et al.

Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that succeed only 22% of the time predict 77% success. Counterintuitively, pre-execution assessment with strictly less information tends to yield better discrimination than standard post-execution review, though differences are not always significant. Adversarial prompting reframing assessment as bug-finding achieves the best calibration.

Leo Richter, Xuanli He, Pasquale Minervini et al.

As language models (LMs) approach human-level performance, a comprehensive understanding of their behavior becomes crucial. This includes evaluating capabilities, biases, task performance, and alignment with societal values. Extensive initial evaluations, including red teaming and diverse benchmarking, can establish a model's behavioral profile. However, subsequent fine-tuning or deployment modifications may alter these behaviors in unintended ways. We present a method for continual Behavioral Shift Auditing (BSA) in LMs. Building on recent work in hypothesis testing, our auditing test detects behavioral shifts solely through model generations. Our test compares model generations from a baseline model to those of the model under scrutiny and provides theoretical guarantees for change detection while controlling false positives. The test features a configurable tolerance parameter that adjusts sensitivity to behavioral changes for different use cases. We evaluate our approach using two case studies: monitoring changes in (a) toxicity and (b) translation performance. We find that the test is able to detect meaningful changes in behavior distributions using just hundreds of examples.

Robert Graham, Edward Stevinson, Leo Richter et al.

Identifying inputs that trigger specific behaviours or latent features in language models could have a wide range of safety use cases. We investigate a class of methods capable of generating targeted, linguistically fluent inputs that activate specific latent features or elicit model behaviours. We formalise this approach as context modification and present ContextBench -- a benchmark with tasks assessing core method capabilities and potential safety applications. Our evaluation framework measures both elicitation strength (activation of latent features or behaviours) and linguistic fluency, highlighting how current state-of-the-art methods struggle to balance these objectives. We enhance Evolutionary Prompt Optimisation (EPO) with LLM-assistance and diffusion model inpainting, and demonstrate that these variants achieve state-of-the-art performance in balancing elicitation effectiveness and fluency.