Rodrigo S. Targino

Helton Graziadei, Paulo C. Marques F., Eduardo F. L. de Melo et al.

We present a model-agnostic framework for the construction of prediction intervals of insurance claims, with finite sample statistical guarantees, extending the technique of split conformal prediction to the domain of two-stage frequency-severity modeling. The framework effectiveness is showcased with simulated and real datasets using classical parametric models and contemporary machine learning methods. When the underlying severity model is a random forest, we extend the two-stage split conformal prediction algorithm, showing how the out-of-bag mechanism can be leveraged to eliminate the need for a calibration set in the conformal procedure.

Jairon H. N. Batista, Flávio B. Gonçalves, Yuri F. Saporito et al.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in generative models based on diffusions driven by the empirical robustness of these methods in generating high-dimensional photorealistic images and the possibility of using the vast existing toolbox of stochastic differential equations. %This remarkable ability may stem from their capacity to model and generate multimodal distributions. In this work, we offer a novel perspective on the approach introduced in Song et al. (2021), shifting the focus from a "learning" problem to a "sampling" problem. To achieve this, we reformulate the equations governing diffusion-based generative models as a Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE), which avoids the well-known issue of pre-estimating the gradient of the log target density. The solution of this FBSDE is proved to be unique using non-standard techniques. Additionally, we propose a numerical solution to this problem, leveraging on Deep Learning techniques. This reformulation opens new pathways for sampling multidimensional distributions with densities known up to a normalization constant, a problem frequently encountered in Bayesian statistics.

Eduardo Fraga L. de Melo, Helton Graziadei, Rodrigo Targino

For the assessment of the financial soundness of a pension fund, it is necessary to take into account mortality forecasting so that longevity risk is consistently incorporated into future cash flows. In this article, we employ machine learning models applied to actuarial science ({\it actuarial learning}) to make mortality predictions for a relevant sample of pension funds' participants. Actuarial learning represents an emerging field that involves the application of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in actuarial science. This encompasses the use of algorithms and computational models to analyze large sets of actuarial data, such as regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, and neural networks (eg. FNN, LSTM, and MHA). Our results indicate that some ML/AI algorithms present competitive out-of-sample performance when compared to the classical Lee-Carter model. This may indicate interesting alternatives for consistent liability evaluation and effective pension fund risk management.