Mark M. Bailey

Zong-Zhi Lin, Thomas D. Pike, Mark M. Bailey et al.

Network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) to detect malicious attacks continue to meet challenges. NIDS are often developed offline while they face auto-generated port scan infiltration attempts, resulting in a significant time lag from adversarial adaption to NIDS response. To address these challenges, we use hypergraphs focused on internet protocol addresses and destination ports to capture evolving patterns of port scan attacks. The derived set of hypergraph-based metrics are then used to train an ensemble machine learning (ML) based NIDS that allows for real-time adaption in monitoring and detecting port scanning activities, other types of attacks, and adversarial intrusions at high accuracy, precision and recall performances. This ML adapting NIDS was developed through the combination of (1) intrusion examples, (2) NIDS update rules, (3) attack threshold choices to trigger NIDS retraining requests, and (4) a production environment with no prior knowledge of the nature of network traffic. 40 scenarios were auto-generated to evaluate the ML ensemble NIDS comprising three tree-based models. The resulting ML Ensemble NIDS was extended and evaluated with the CIC-IDS2017 dataset. Results show that under the model settings of an Update-ALL-NIDS rule (specifically retrain and update all the three models upon the same NIDS retraining request) the proposed ML ensemble NIDS evolved intelligently and produced the best results with nearly 100% detection performance throughout the simulation.

Kyle A. Kilian, Christopher J. Ventura, Mark M. Bailey

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. The extent and scope of future AI capabilities remain a key uncertainty, with widespread disagreement on timelines and potential impacts. As nations and technology companies race toward greater complexity and autonomy in AI systems, there are concerns over the extent of integration and oversight of opaque AI decision processes. This is especially true in the subfield of machine learning (ML), where systems learn to optimize objectives without human assistance. Objectives can be imperfectly specified or executed in an unexpected or potentially harmful way. This becomes more concerning as systems increase in power and autonomy, where an abrupt capability jump could result in unexpected shifts in power dynamics or even catastrophic failures. This study presents a hierarchical complex systems framework to model AI risk and provide a template for alternative futures analysis. Survey data were collected from domain experts in the public and private sectors to classify AI impact and likelihood. The results show increased uncertainty over the powerful AI agent scenario, confidence in multiagent environments, and increased concern over AI alignment failures and influence-seeking behavior.

Mark M. Bailey

Efforts by foreign actors to influence public opinion have gained considerable attention because of their potential to impact democratic elections. Thus, the ability to identify and counter sources of disinformation is increasingly becoming a top priority for government entities in order to protect the integrity of democratic processes. This study presents a method of identifying Russian disinformation bots on Twitter using centering resonance analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore community detection. The data reflect a significant degree of discursive dissimilarity between known Russian disinformation bots and a control set of Twitter users during the timeframe of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The data also demonstrate statistically significant classification capabilities (MCC = 0.9070) based on community clustering. The prediction algorithm is very effective at identifying true positives (bots), but is not able to resolve true negatives (non-bots) because of the lack of discursive similarity between control users. This leads to a highly sensitive means of identifying propagators of disinformation with a high degree of discursive similarity on Twitter, with implications for limiting the spread of disinformation that could impact democratic processes.

Mark M. Bailey

Swarm and constellation reconfiguration can be viewed as motion of an unordered point configuration in an ambient space. Here, we provide persistence-stable, symmetry-invariant geometric representations for comparing and monitoring multi-agent configuration data. We introduce a quotient formation space $\mathcal{S}_n(M,G)=M^n/(G\times S_n)$ and a formation matching metric $d_{M,G}$ obtained by optimizing a worst-case assignment error over ambient symmetries $g\in G$ and relabelings $σ\in S_n$. This metric is a structured, physically interpretable relaxation of Gromov--Hausdorff distance: the induced inter-agent metric spaces satisfy $d_{\mathrm{GH}}(X_x,X_y)\le d_{M,G}([x],[y])$. Composing this bound with stability of Vietoris--Rips persistence yields $d_B(Φ_k([x]),Φ_k([y]))\le d_{M,G}([x],[y])$, providing persistence-stable signatures for reconfiguration monitoring. We analyze the metric geometry of $(\mathcal{S}_n(M,G),d_{M,G})$: under compactness/completeness assumptions on $M$ and compact $G$ it is compact/complete and the metric induces the quotient topology; if $M$ is geodesic then the quotient is geodesic and exhibits stratified singularities along collision and symmetry strata, relating it to classical configuration spaces. We study expressivity of the signatures, identifying symmetry-mismatch and persistence-compression mechanisms for non-injectivity. Finally, in a phase-circle model we prove a conditional inverse theorem: under semicircle support and a gap-labeling margin, the $H_0$ signature is locally bi-Lipschitz to $d_{M,G}$ up to an explicit factor, yielding two-sided control. Examples on $\mathbb{S}^2$ and $\mathbb{T}^m$ illustrate satellite-constellation and formation settings.

Mark M. Bailey, Matthew J. Hasenjager, Nina H. Fefferman

We study hyperedge-removal strategies for suppressing contagion on synthetic hypergraphs. Hypergraphs are generated from Erdős--Rényi, Barabási--Albert, and Watts--Strogatz seed graphs by promoting maximal cliques to hyperedges. For each hypergraph, we construct \(s\)-line graphs whose vertices correspond to hyperedges and whose edges encode hyperedge overlap of size at least \(s\). Spectral \(k\)-way clustering of these \(s\)-line graphs yields a multiscale cut-persistence score used to rank hyperedges for removal. Simulations show that the effect of this intervention is strongly topology-dependent. In the reported Erdős--Rényi case, cut-persistence targeting reduces final infection size more than random hyperedge removal. In the Watts--Strogatz and Barabási--Albert cases, however, random removal is comparable to or better than cut-persistence targeting. These results suggest that spectral overlap structure can identify structurally salient hyperedges, but structural salience alone does not guarantee optimal contagion suppression. The study motivates further comparison with ensemble-level experiments and explicitly higher-order contagion models.

Cameron Berg, Susan L. Schneider, Mark M. Bailey

Collections of interacting AI agents can form coalitions, creating emergent group-level organization that is critical for AI safety and alignment. However, observing agent behavior alone is often insufficient to distinguish genuine informational coupling from spurious similarity, as consequential coalitions may form at the level of internal representations before any overt behavioral change is apparent. Here, we introduce a practical method for detecting coalition structure from the internal neural representations of multi-agent systems. The approach constructs a pairwise mutual-information graph from the hidden states of agents and applies spectral partitioning to identify the most salient coalition boundary. We validate this method in two domains. First, in multi-agent reinforcement learning environments, the method successfully recovers programmed hierarchical and dynamic coalition structures and correctly rejects false positives arising from behavioral coordination without informational coupling. Second, using a large language model, the method identifies coalition structures implied by descriptive prompts, tracks dynamic team reassignments, and reveals a representational hierarchy where explicit labels dominate over conflicting interaction patterns. Across both settings, the recovered partition reveals subgroup organization that a scalar cross-agent mutual-information measure cannot distinguish. The results demonstrate that analyzing hidden-state mutual information through spectral partitioning provides a scalable diagnostic for identifying representational coalitions, offering a valuable tool for monitoring emergent structure in distributed AI systems.

Mark M. Bailey, Mark I. Heiligman

How can we detect when global events fundamentally reshape public discourse? This study introduces a topological framework for identifying structural change in media narratives using persistent homology. Drawing on international news articles surrounding major events - including the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Feb 2022), the murder of George Floyd (May 2020), the U.S. Capitol insurrection (Jan 2021), and the Hamas-led invasion of Israel (Oct 2023) - we construct daily co-occurrence graphs of noun phrases to trace evolving discourse. Each graph is embedded and transformed into a persistence diagram via a Vietoris-Rips filtration. We then compute Wasserstein distances and persistence entropies across homological dimensions to capture semantic disruption and narrative volatility over time. Our results show that major geopolitical and social events align with sharp spikes in both H0 (connected components) and H1 (loops), indicating sudden reorganization in narrative structure and coherence. Cross-correlation analyses reveal a typical lag pattern in which changes to component-level structure (H0) precede higher-order motif shifts (H1), suggesting a bottom-up cascade of semantic change. An exception occurs during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where H1 entropy leads H0, possibly reflecting top-down narrative framing before local discourse adjusts. Persistence entropy further distinguishes tightly focused from diffuse narrative regimes. These findings demonstrate that persistent homology offers a mathematically principled, unsupervised method for detecting inflection points and directional shifts in public attention - without requiring prior knowledge of specific events. This topological approach advances computational social science by enabling real-time detection of semantic restructuring during crises, protests, and information shocks.

S. Tucker Browne, Mark M. Bailey

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to revolutionize military combat systems, but ensuring these AI-enabled capabilities are truly mission-ready presents new challenges. We argue that current technology readiness assessments fail to capture critical AI-specific factors, leading to potential risks in deployment. We propose a new AI Readiness Framework to evaluate the maturity and trustworthiness of AI components in military systems. The central thesis is that a tailored framework - analogous to traditional Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) but expanded for AI - can better gauge an AI system's reliability, safety, and suitability for combat use. Using current data evaluation tools and testing practices, we demonstrate the framework's feasibility for near-term implementation. This structured approach provides military decision-makers with clearer insight into whether an AI-enabled system has met the necessary standards of performance, transparency, and human integration to be deployed with confidence, thus advancing the field of defense technology management and risk assessment.

Mark M. Bailey

Where is everybody? This phrase distills the foreboding of what has come to be known as the Fermi Paradox - the disquieting idea that, if extraterrestrial life is probable in the Universe, then why have we not encountered it? This conundrum has puzzled scholars for decades, and many hypotheses have been proposed suggesting both naturalistic and sociological explanations. One intriguing hypothesis is known as the Great Filter, which suggests that some event required for the emergence of intelligent life is extremely unlikely, hence the cosmic silence. A logically equivalent version of this hypothesis -- and one that should give us pause -- suggests that some catastrophic event is likely to occur that prevents life's expansion throughout the cosmos. This could be a naturally occurring event, or more disconcertingly, something that intelligent beings do to themselves that leads to their own extinction. From an intelligence perspective, framing global catastrophic risk (particularly risks of anthropogenic origin) within the context of the Great Filter can provide insight into the long-term futures of technologies that we don't fully understand, like artificial intelligence. For the intelligence professional concerned with global catastrophic risk, this has significant implications for how these risks ought to be prioritized.