Pavel V. Shevchenko

Pavel V. Shevchenko

Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern computer processing power, these distributions can be calculated virtually exactly using numerical methods. This paper reviews numerical algorithms that can be successfully used to calculate the aggregate loss distributions. In particular Monte Carlo, Panjer recursion and Fourier transformation methods are presented and compared. Also, several closed-form approximations based on moment matching and asymptotic result for heavy-tailed distributions are reviewed.

Xiaolin Luo, Pavel V. Shevchenko

Integration of the form $\int_a^\infty {f(x)w(x)dx} $, where $w(x)$ is either $\sin (ω{\kern 1pt} x)$ or $\cos (ω{\kern 1pt} x)$, is widely encountered in many engineering and scientific applications, such as those involving Fourier or Laplace transforms. Often such integrals are approximated by a numerical integration over a finite domain $(a,\,b)$, leaving a truncation error equal to the tail integration $\int_b^\infty {f(x)w(x)dx} $ in addition to the discretization error. This paper describes a very simple, perhaps the simplest, end-point correction to approximate the tail integration, which significantly reduces the truncation error and thus increases the overall accuracy of the numerical integration, with virtually no extra computational effort. Higher order correction terms and error estimates for the end-point correction formula are also derived. The effectiveness of this one-point correction formula is demonstrated through several examples.

Dorota Toczydlowska, Gareth W. Peters, Pavel V. Shevchenko

We propose a novel generalisation to the Student-t Probabilistic Principal Component methodology which: (1) accounts for an asymmetric distribution of the observation data; (2) is a framework for grouped and generalised multiple-degree-of-freedom structures, which provides a more flexible approach to modelling groups of marginal tail dependence in the observation data; and (3) separates the tail effect of the error terms and factors. The new feature extraction methods are derived in an incomplete data setting to efficiently handle the presence of missing values in the observation vector. We discuss various special cases of the algorithm being a result of simplified assumptions on the process generating the data. The applicability of the new framework is illustrated on a data set that consists of crypto currencies with the highest market capitalisation.