Angus Dempster

Angus Dempster, Daniel F. Schmidt, Geoffrey I. Webb

We demonstrate a simple connection between dictionary methods for time series classification, which involve extracting and counting symbolic patterns in time series, and methods based on transforming input time series using convolutional kernels, namely ROCKET and its variants. We show that by adjusting a single hyperparameter it is possible to move by degrees between models resembling dictionary methods and models resembling ROCKET. We present HYDRA, a simple, fast, and accurate dictionary method for time series classification using competing convolutional kernels, combining key aspects of both ROCKET and conventional dictionary methods. HYDRA is faster and more accurate than the most accurate existing dictionary methods, and can be combined with ROCKET and its variants to further improve the accuracy of these methods.

Angus Dempster, Daniel F. Schmidt, Geoffrey I. Webb

We show that it is possible to achieve the same accuracy, on average, as the most accurate existing interval methods for time series classification on a standard set of benchmark datasets using a single type of feature (quantiles), fixed intervals, and an 'off the shelf' classifier. This distillation of interval-based approaches represents a fast and accurate method for time series classification, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on the expanded set of 142 datasets in the UCR archive with a total compute time (training and inference) of less than 15 minutes using a single CPU core.

Raphael Fischer, Angus Dempster, Sebastian Buschjäger et al.

Time series classification (TSC) enables important use cases, however lacks a unified understanding of performance trade-offs across models, datasets, and hardware. While resource awareness has grown in the field, TSC methods have not yet been rigorously evaluated for energy efficiency. This paper introduces a holistic evaluation framework that explicitly explores the balance of predictive performance and resource consumption in TSC. To boost efficiency, we apply a theoretically bounded pruning strategy to leading hybrid classifiers - Hydra and Quant - and present Hydrant, a novel, prunable combination of both. With over 4000 experimental configurations across 20 MONSTER datasets, 13 methods, and three compute setups, we systematically analyze how model design, hyperparameters, and hardware choices affect practical TSC performance. Our results showcase that pruning can significantly reduce energy consumption by up to 80% while maintaining competitive predictive quality, usually costing the model less than 5% of accuracy. The proposed methodology, experimental results, and accompanying software advance TSC toward sustainable and reproducible practice.

Angus Dempster, Navid Mohammadi Foumani, Chang Wei Tan et al.

We introduce MONSTER-the MONash Scalable Time Series Evaluation Repository-a collection of large datasets for time series classification. The field of time series classification has benefitted from common benchmarks set by the UCR and UEA time series classification repositories. However, the datasets in these benchmarks are small, with median sizes of 217 and 255 examples, respectively. In consequence they favour a narrow subspace of models that are optimised to achieve low classification error on a wide variety of smaller datasets, that is, models that minimise variance, and give little weight to computational issues such as scalability. Our hope is to diversify the field by introducing benchmarks using larger datasets. We believe that there is enormous potential for new progress in the field by engaging with the theoretical and practical challenges of learning effectively from larger quantities of data.

Angus Dempster, Geoffrey I. Webb, Daniel F. Schmidt

Logistic regression is a ubiquitous method for probabilistic classification. However, the effectiveness of logistic regression depends upon careful and relatively computationally expensive tuning, especially for the regularisation hyperparameter, and especially in the context of high-dimensional data. We present a prevalidated ridge regression model that closely matches logistic regression in terms of classification error and log-loss, particularly for high-dimensional data, while being significantly more computationally efficient and having effectively no hyperparameters beyond regularisation. We scale the coefficients of the model so as to minimise log-loss for a set of prevalidated predictions derived from the estimated leave-one-out cross-validation error. This exploits quantities already computed in the course of fitting the ridge regression model in order to find the scaling parameter with nominal additional computational expense.

Ali Ismail-Fawaz, Angus Dempster, Chang Wei Tan et al.

The measurement of progress using benchmarks evaluations is ubiquitous in computer science and machine learning. However, common approaches to analyzing and presenting the results of benchmark comparisons of multiple algorithms over multiple datasets, such as the critical difference diagram introduced by Demšar (2006), have important shortcomings and, we show, are open to both inadvertent and intentional manipulation. To address these issues, we propose a new approach to presenting the results of benchmark comparisons, the Multiple Comparison Matrix (MCM), that prioritizes pairwise comparisons and precludes the means of manipulating experimental results in existing approaches. MCM can be used to show the results of an all-pairs comparison, or to show the results of a comparison between one or more selected algorithms and the state of the art. MCM is implemented in Python and is publicly available.

Chang Wei Tan, Angus Dempster, Christoph Bergmeir et al.

We propose MultiRocket, a fast time series classification (TSC) algorithm that achieves state-of-the-art performance with a tiny fraction of the time and without the complex ensembling structure of many state-of-the-art methods. MultiRocket improves on MiniRocket, one of the fastest TSC algorithms to date, by adding multiple pooling operators and transformations to improve the diversity of the features generated. In addition to processing the raw input series, MultiRocket also applies first order differences to transform the original series. Convolutions are applied to both representations, and four pooling operators are applied to the convolution outputs. When benchmarked using the University of California Riverside TSC benchmark datasets, MultiRocket is significantly more accurate than MiniRocket, and competitive with the best ranked current method in terms of accuracy, HIVE-COTE 2.0, while being orders of magnitude faster.