Fabio Mazza

Paolo Tarantino, Fabio Mazza, Carlo Piccardi et al.

The ability of a small set of coordinated actors to manipulate opinions in online social networks poses a serious challenge to the fairness and integrity of public debate. We investigate this problem by studying how targeted stubborn agents can shift the average opinion of a network governed by the Hegselmann-Krause bounded-confidence dynamics. Experiments are conducted on weighted LFR benchmark networks with community structure, using multiple node-selection strategies based on degree, strength, PageRank, betweenness, k-coreness, s-coreness, and salience. We compare static interventions, in which stubborn agents keep a fixed extreme opinion, with dynamic interventions, in which their opinion gradually evolves from moderate to extreme values. Results show that dynamic strategies are substantially more effective than static ones, as they exploit bounded-confidence dynamics to progressively recruit intermediate agents and extend influence across the network. In contrast, static strategies tend to create early opinion separation and therefore have a more limited reach. We also find that while some centrality measures offer advantages in static settings, dynamic interventions can achieve strong performance even with simple or random node selection. Overall, the study clarifies how intervention design and target selection interact in shaping collective opinions, with implications for understanding and countering manipulation in social networks.

Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Luca Dall'Asta et al.

The reconstruction of missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in the prevention and containment strategies. The identification and warning of infectious but asymptomatic individuals (i.e., contact tracing), the well-known patient-zero problem, or the inference of the infectivity values in structured populations are examples of significant epidemic inference problems. As the number of possible epidemic cascades grows exponentially with the number of individuals involved and only an almost negligible subset of them is compatible with the observations (e.g., medical tests), epidemic inference in contact networks poses incredible computational challenges. We present a new generative neural networks framework that learns to generate the most probable infection cascades compatible with observations. The proposed method achieves better (in some cases, significantly better) or comparable results with existing methods in all problems considered both in synthetic and real contact networks. Given its generality, clear Bayesian and variational nature, the presented framework paves the way to solve fundamental inference epidemic problems with high precision in small and medium-sized real case scenarios such as the spread of infections in workplaces and hospitals.

Antoine Baker, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein et al.

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lock-down becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications.