Ahmet Murat Özbayoğlu

Furkan Karadaş, Bahaeddin Eravcı, Ahmet Murat Özbayoğlu

In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This paper explores a multimodal machine learning approach for stock price prediction by combining data from diverse sources, including traditional financial metrics, tweets, and news articles. We capture real-time market dynamics and investor mood through sentiment analysis on these textual data using both ChatGPT-4o and FinBERT models. We look at how these integrated data streams augment predictions made with a standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM model) to illustrate the extent of performance gains. Our study's results indicate that incorporating the mentioned data sources considerably increases the forecast effectiveness of the reference model by up to 5%. We also provide insights into the individual and combined predictive capacities of these modalities, highlighting the substantial impact of incorporating sentiment analysis from tweets and news articles. This research offers a systematic and effective framework for applying multimodal data analytics techniques in financial time series forecasting that provides a new view for investors to leverage data for decision-making.

Fahri Aydos, A. Murat Özbayoğlu, Yahya Şirin et al.

In this paper, we introduce a novel method that combines multiple neural network results to decide the class of the input. This is the first study which used the method for web pages classification. In our model, each element is represented by multiple descriptive images. After the training process of the neural network model, each element is classified by calculating its descriptive image results. We apply our idea to the web page classification problem using Google Image Search results as descriptive images. We obtained a classification rate of 94.90% on the WebScreenshots dataset that contains 20000 web sites in 4 classes. The method is easily applicable to similar problems.

Omer Berat Sezer, Mehmet Ugur Gudelek, Ahmet Murat Ozbayoglu

Financial time series forecasting is, without a doubt, the top choice of computational intelligence for finance researchers from both academia and financial industry due to its broad implementation areas and substantial impact. Machine Learning (ML) researchers came up with various models and a vast number of studies have been published accordingly. As such, a significant amount of surveys exist covering ML for financial time series forecasting studies. Lately, Deep Learning (DL) models started appearing within the field, with results that significantly outperform traditional ML counterparts. Even though there is a growing interest in developing models for financial time series forecasting research, there is a lack of review papers that were solely focused on DL for finance. Hence, our motivation in this paper is to provide a comprehensive literature review on DL studies for financial time series forecasting implementations. We not only categorized the studies according to their intended forecasting implementation areas, such as index, forex, commodity forecasting, but also grouped them based on their DL model choices, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). We also tried to envision the future for the field by highlighting the possible setbacks and opportunities, so the interested researchers can benefit.

Omer Berat Sezer, Ahmet Murat Ozbayoglu

Even though computational intelligence techniques have been extensively utilized in financial trading systems, almost all developed models use the time series data for price prediction or identifying buy-sell points. However, in this study we decided to use 2-D stock bar chart images directly without introducing any additional time series associated with the underlying stock. We propose a novel algorithmic trading model CNN-BI (Convolutional Neural Network with Bar Images) using a 2-D Convolutional Neural Network. We generated 2-D images of sliding windows of 30-day bar charts for Dow 30 stocks and trained a deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for our algorithmic trading model. We tested our model separately between 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 for representing different market conditions. The results indicate that the model was able to outperform Buy and Hold strategy, especially in trendless or bear markets. Since this is a preliminary study and probably one of the first attempts using such an unconventional approach, there is always potential for improvement. Overall, the results are promising and the model might be integrated as part of an ensemble trading model combined with different strategies.

O. B. Sezer, M. Ozbayoglu, E. Dogdu

In this paper, a neural network-based stock price prediction and trading system using technical analysis indicators is presented. The model developed first converts the financial time series data into a series of buy-sell-hold trigger signals using the most commonly preferred technical analysis indicators. Then, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) model is trained in the learning stage on the daily stock prices between 1997 and 2007 for all of the Dow30 stocks. Apache Spark big data framework is used in the training stage. The trained model is then tested with data from 2007 to 2017. The results indicate that by choosing the most appropriate technical indicators, the neural network model can achieve comparable results against the Buy and Hold strategy in most of the cases. Furthermore, fine tuning the technical indicators and/or optimization strategy can enhance the overall trading performance.

A. Murat Ozbayoglu, Gokhan Kucukayan, Erdogan Dogdu

Due to increasing urban population and growing number of motor vehicles, traffic congestion is becoming a major problem of the 21st century. One of the main reasons behind traffic congestion is accidents which can not only result in casualties and losses for the participants, but also in wasted and lost time for the others that are stuck behind the wheels. Early detection of an accident can save lives, provides quicker road openings, hence decreases wasted time and resources, and increases efficiency. In this study, we propose a preliminary real-time autonomous accident-detection system based on computational intelligence techniques. Istanbul City traffic-flow data for the year 2015 from various sensor locations are populated using big data processing methodologies. The extracted features are then fed into a nearest neighbor model, a regression tree, and a feed-forward neural network model. For the output, the possibility of an occurrence of an accident is predicted. The results indicate that even though the number of false alarms dominates the real accident cases, the system can still provide useful information that can be used for status verification and early reaction to possible accidents.