Francesco Cancelliere, Aniket Datar, Giovanni Muscato et al.
Model Predictive Control (MPC) for autonomous navigation faces a fundamental trade-off between model accuracy and real-time efficiency. High-fidelity dynamics models can accurately predict complex vehicle-terrain interactions during trajectory rollouts, but incur significant computational cost, increasing inference latency and reducing control frequency. Conversely, lightweight models enable fast updates and dense sampling, yet may produce erroneous predictions under safety-critical conditions, potentially leading to catastrophic failures such as vehicle rollover. To address this trade-off, we propose Adaptive Dynamics Orchestration (ADO), a framework that dynamically selects the most appropriate dynamics model for the current navigation context. ADO maintains a library of models spanning diverse accuracy-efficiency profiles and continuously refines terrain-conditioned performance estimates using residual errors from online counterfactual rollouts, where executed control actions are replayed across the model library to assess predictive discrepancy. These estimates guide model selection in real time, balancing computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. Real-world experiments on an off-road ground robot demonstrate that ADO significantly reduces modeling error compared to a fixed low-latency baseline, while approaching the accuracy of the highest-fidelity model without incurring its computational cost, resulting in more reliable and effective navigation in challenging terrain.