Seppe vanden Broucke

Jari Peeperkorn, Seppe vanden Broucke, Jochen De Weerdt

Various methods using machine and deep learning have been proposed to tackle different tasks in predictive process monitoring, forecasting for an ongoing case e.g. the most likely next event or suffix, its remaining time, or an outcome-related variable. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and more specifically long short-term memory nets (LSTMs), stand out in terms of popularity. In this work, we investigate the capabilities of such an LSTM to actually learn the underlying process model structure of an event log. We introduce an evaluation framework that combines variant-based resampling and custom metrics for fitness, precision and generalization. We evaluate 4 hypotheses concerning the learning capabilities of LSTMs, the effect of overfitting countermeasures, the level of incompleteness in the training set and the level of parallelism in the underlying process model. We confirm that LSTMs can struggle to learn process model structure, even with simplistic process data and in a very lenient setup. Taking the correct anti-overfitting measures can alleviate the problem. However, these measures did not present themselves to be optimal when selecting hyperparameters purely on predicting accuracy. We also found that decreasing the amount of information seen by the LSTM during training, causes a sharp drop in generalization and precision scores. In our experiments, we could not identify a relationship between the extent of parallelism in the model and the generalization capability, but they do indicate that the process' complexity might have impact.

Bart Baesens, Andreas Goethals, Stefan Lessmann et al.

Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses. Extensive research has introduced new modeling techniques, complemented by large-scale benchmarking studies consolidating the state-of-the-art. Today, quasi-standards such as gradient-boosting models paired with SHAP explainers have emerged, yet continuous improvement of risk models remains a top priority. Concurrently, rapid advancements in AI, most notably large language models, have disrupted predictive modeling paradigms. Foundation models, pretrained on extensive datasets from diverse domains, have demonstrated remarkable performance by leveraging prior knowledge. While prevalent in natural language processing and computer vision, foundation models for tabular data have only recently emerged. We conjecture that pretraining on out-of-domain data is particularly beneficial in small-data settings, such as SME lending or specialized corporate portfolios, and may help address longstanding challenges including low default portfolios and class imbalance. This paper benchmarks recently proposed tabular foundation models against a broad set of competitors, including established and advanced machine learning techniques, across two core tasks: PD and LGD modeling. Our evaluation encompasses various datasets, performance indicators, and experimental conditions. We find that tabular foundation models generally perform best across datasets and tasks. Moreover, they offer significant improvement in predictive performance as dataset size shrinks. These results are remarkable given that the models are tested out-of-the-box, without hyperparameter tuning, ensuring ease of use and mitigating computational costs.

Margot Geerts, Manon Reusens, Bart Baesens et al.

The real estate market is vital to global economies but suffers from significant information asymmetry. This study examines how Large Language Models (LLMs) can democratize access to real estate insights by generating competitive and interpretable house price estimates through optimized In-Context Learning (ICL) strategies. We systematically evaluate leading LLMs on diverse international housing datasets, comparing zero-shot, few-shot, market report-enhanced, and hybrid prompting techniques. Our results show that LLMs effectively leverage hedonic variables, such as property size and amenities, to produce meaningful estimates. While traditional machine learning models remain strong for pure predictive accuracy, LLMs offer a more accessible, interactive and interpretable alternative. Although self-explanations require cautious interpretation, we find that LLMs explain their predictions in agreement with state-of-the-art models, confirming their trustworthiness. Carefully selected in-context examples based on feature similarity and geographic proximity, significantly enhance LLM performance, yet LLMs struggle with overconfidence in price intervals and limited spatial reasoning. We offer practical guidance for structured prediction tasks through prompt optimization. Our findings highlight LLMs' potential to improve transparency in real estate appraisal and provide actionable insights for stakeholders.

Jari Peeperkorn, Seppe vanden Broucke, Jochen De Weerdt

Predictive process monitoring concerns itself with the prediction of ongoing cases in (business) processes. Prediction tasks typically focus on remaining time, outcome, next event or full case suffix prediction. Various methods using machine and deep learning havebeen proposed for these tasks in recent years. Especially recurrent neural networks (RNNs) such as long short-term memory nets (LSTMs) have gained in popularity. However, no research focuses on whether such neural network-based models can truly learn the structure of underlying process models. For instance, can such neural networks effectively learn parallel behaviour or loops? Therefore, in this work, we propose an evaluation scheme complemented with new fitness, precision, and generalisation metrics, specifically tailored towards measuring the capacity of deep learning models to learn process model structure. We apply this framework to several process models with simple control-flow behaviour, on the task of next-event prediction. Our results show that, even for such simplistic models, careful tuning of overfitting countermeasures is required to allow these models to learn process model structure.

Pieter De Koninck, Klaas Nelissen, Seppe vanden Broucke et al.

Within the field of process mining, several different trace clustering approaches exist for partitioning traces or process instances into similar groups. Typically, this partitioning is based on certain patterns or similarity between the traces, or driven by the discovery of a process model for each cluster. The main drawback of these techniques, however, is that their solutions are usually hard to evaluate or justify by domain experts. In this paper, we present two constrained trace clustering techniques that are capable to leverage expert knowledge in the form of instance-level constraints. In an extensive experimental evaluation using two real-life datasets, we show that our novel techniques are indeed capable of producing clustering solutions that are more justifiable without a substantial negative impact on their quality.

Sebastiaan Höppner, Eugen Stripling, Bart Baesens et al.

Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are built with the purpose of accurately predicting the probability of a customer defecting. The predictive churn models are then commonly selected based on accuracy related performance measures such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC). However, these models are often not well aligned with the core business requirement of profit maximization, in the sense that, the models fail to take into account not only misclassification costs, but also the benefits originating from a correct classification. Therefore, the aim is to construct churn prediction models that are profitable and preferably interpretable too. The recently developed expected maximum profit measure for customer churn (EMPC) has been proposed in order to select the most profitable churn model. We present a new classifier that integrates the EMPC metric directly into the model construction. Our technique, called ProfTree, uses an evolutionary algorithm for learning profit driven decision trees. In a benchmark study with real-life data sets from various telecommunication service providers, we show that ProfTree achieves significant profit improvements compared to classic accuracy driven tree-based methods.