Assad Oberai

Bryan Shaddy, Deep Ray, Angel Farguell et al.

Increases in wildfire activity and the resulting impacts have prompted the development of high-resolution wildfire behavior models for forecasting fire spread. Recent progress in using satellites to detect fire locations further provides the opportunity to use measurements to improve fire spread forecasts from numerical models through data assimilation. This work develops a method for inferring the history of a wildfire from satellite measurements, providing the necessary information to initialize coupled atmosphere-wildfire models from a measured wildfire state in a physics-informed approach. The fire arrival time, which is the time the fire reaches a given spatial location, acts as a succinct representation of the history of a wildfire. In this work, a conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (cWGAN), trained with WRF-SFIRE simulations, is used to infer the fire arrival time from satellite active fire data. The cWGAN is used to produce samples of likely fire arrival times from the conditional distribution of arrival times given satellite active fire detections. Samples produced by the cWGAN are further used to assess the uncertainty of predictions. The cWGAN is tested on four California wildfires occurring between 2020 and 2022, and predictions for fire extent are compared against high resolution airborne infrared measurements. Further, the predicted ignition times are compared with reported ignition times. An average Sorensen's coefficient of 0.81 for the fire perimeters and an average ignition time error of 32 minutes suggest that the method is highly accurate.

Brianna Binder, Assad Oberai

We propose closed-form conditional diffusion models for data assimilation. Diffusion models use data to learn the score function (defined as the gradient of the log-probability density of a data distribution), allowing them to generate new samples from the data distribution by reversing a noise injection process. While it is common to train neural networks to approximate the score function, we leverage the analytical tractability of the score function to assimilate the states of a system with measurements. To enable the efficient evaluation of the score function, we use kernel density estimation to model the joint distribution of the states and their corresponding measurements. The proposed approach also inherits the capability of conditional diffusion models of operating in black-box settings, i.e., the proposed data assimilation approach can accommodate systems and measurement processes without their explicit knowledge. The ability to accommodate black-box systems combined with the superior capabilities of diffusion models in approximating complex, non-Gaussian probability distributions means that the proposed approach offers advantages over many widely used filtering methods. We evaluate the proposed method on nonlinear data assimilation problems based on the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems of moderate dimensionality and nonlinear measurement models. Results show the proposed approach outperforms the widely used ensemble Kalman and particle filters when small to moderate ensemble sizes are used.

Agnimitra Dasgupta, Ali Fardisi, Mehrnegar Aminy et al.

This study presents a conditional flow matching framework for solving physics-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. In this setting, samples from the joint distribution of inferred variables and measurements are assumed available, while explicit evaluation of the prior and likelihood densities is not required. We derive a simple and self-contained formulation of both the unconditional and conditional flow matching algorithms, tailored specifically to inverse problems. In the conditional setting, a neural network is trained to learn the velocity field of a probability flow ordinary differential equation that transports samples from a chosen source distribution directly to the posterior distribution conditioned on observed measurements. This black-box formulation accommodates nonlinear, high-dimensional, and potentially non-differentiable forward models without restrictive assumptions on the noise model. We further analyze the behavior of the learned velocity field in the regime of finite training data. Under mild architectural assumptions, we show that overtraining can induce degenerate behavior in the generated conditional distributions, including variance collapse and a phenomenon termed selective memorization, wherein generated samples concentrate around training data points associated with similar observations. A simplified theoretical analysis explains this behavior, and numerical experiments confirm it in practice. We demonstrate that standard early-stopping criteria based on monitoring test loss effectively mitigate such degeneracy. The proposed method is evaluated on several physics-based inverse problems. We investigate the impact of different choices of source distributions, including Gaussian and data-informed priors. Across these examples, conditional flow matching accurately captures complex, multimodal posterior distributions while maintaining computational efficiency.

Bryan Shaddy, Haitong Qin, Brianna Binder et al.

This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire arrival times given the current fire state along with environmental and atmospheric inputs. Model inputs include current burned area, near-surface wind components, temperature, relative humidity, terrain height, and fuel category information, all defined on a high-resolution spatial grid. The outputs are samples of arrival time within a three-hour time window, conditioned on the input variables. Training data are generated from coupled atmosphere-wildfire spread simulations using WRF-SFIRE, paired with weather fields from the North American Mesoscale model. The proposed framework enables efficient generation of ensembles of arrival times and explicitly represents uncertainty arising from incomplete knowledge of the fire-atmosphere system and unresolved variables. The model supports localized prediction over subdomains, reducing computational cost relative to physics-based simulators while retaining sensitivity to key drivers of fire spread. Model performance is evaluated against WRF-SFIRE simulations for both single-step (3-hour) and recursive multi-step (24-hour) forecasts. Results demonstrate that the method captures variability in fire evolution and produces accurate ensemble predictions. The framework provides a scalable approach for probabilistic wildfire forecasting and offers a pathway for integrating machine learning models with operational fire prediction systems and data assimilation.

Ricardo Baptista, Agnimitra Dasgupta, Nikola B. Kovachki et al.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework for generative modeling. At the heart of the methodology is score matching: learning gradients of families of log-densities for noisy versions of the data distribution at different scales. When the loss function adopted in score matching is evaluated using empirical data, rather than the population loss, the minimizer corresponds to the score of a time-dependent Gaussian mixture. However, use of this analytically tractable minimizer leads to data memorization: in both unconditioned and conditioned settings, the generative model returns the training samples. This paper contains an analysis of the dynamical mechanism underlying memorization. The analysis highlights the need for regularization to avoid reproducing the analytically tractable minimizer; and, in so doing, lays the foundations for a principled understanding of how to regularize. Numerical experiments investigate the properties of: (i) Tikhonov regularization; (ii) regularization designed to promote asymptotic consistency; and (iii) regularizations induced by under-parameterization of a neural network or by early stopping when training a neural network. These experiments are evaluated in the context of memorization, and directions for future development of regularization are highlighted.

Bryan Shaddy, Brianna Binder, Agnimitra Dasgupta et al.

Increasing wildfire occurrence has spurred growing interest in wildfire spread prediction. However, even the most complex wildfire models diverge from observed progression during multi-day simulations, motivating need for data assimilation. A useful approach to assimilating measurement data into complex coupled atmosphere-wildfire models is to estimate wildfire progression from measurements and use this progression to develop a matching atmospheric state. In this study, an approach is developed for estimating fire progression from VIIRS active fire measurements, GOES-derived ignition times, and terrain height data. A conditional Generative Adversarial Network is trained with simulations of historic wildfires from the atmosphere-wildfire model WRF-SFIRE, thus allowing incorporation of WRF-SFIRE physics into estimates. Fire progression is succinctly represented by fire arrival time, and measurements for training are obtained by applying an approximate observation operator to WRF-SFIRE solutions, eliminating need for satellite data during training. The model is trained on tuples of fire arrival times, measurements, and terrain, and once trained leverages measurements of real fires and corresponding terrain data to generate samples of fire arrival times. The approach is validated on five Pacific US wildfires, with results compared against high-resolution perimeters measured via aircraft, finding an average Sorensen-Dice coefficient of 0.81. The influence of terrain height on the arrival time inference is also evaluated and it is observed that terrain has minimal influence when the inference is conditioned on satellite measurements.

Agnimitra Dasgupta, Harisankar Ramaswamy, Javier Murgoitio-Esandi et al.

We propose a framework to perform Bayesian inference using conditional score-based diffusion models to solve a class of inverse problems in mechanics involving the inference of a specimen's spatially varying material properties from noisy measurements of its mechanical response to loading. Conditional score-based diffusion models are generative models that learn to approximate the score function of a conditional distribution using samples from the joint distribution. More specifically, the score functions corresponding to multiple realizations of the measurement are approximated using a single neural network, the so-called score network, which is subsequently used to sample the posterior distribution using an appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme based on Langevin dynamics. Training the score network only requires simulating the forward model. Hence, the proposed approach can accommodate black-box forward models and complex measurement noise. Moreover, once the score network has been trained, it can be re-used to solve the inverse problem for different realizations of the measurements. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on a suite of high-dimensional inverse problems in mechanics that involve inferring heterogeneous material properties from noisy measurements. Some examples we consider involve synthetic data, while others include data collected from actual elastography experiments. Further, our applications demonstrate that the proposed approach can handle different measurement modalities, complex patterns in the inferred quantities, non-Gaussian and non-additive noise models, and nonlinear black-box forward models. The results show that the proposed framework can solve large-scale physics-based inverse problems efficiently.

Mingxi Lei, Bino Varghese, Darryl Hwang et al.

There is no consensus regarding the radiomic feature terminology, the underlying mathematics, or their implementation. This creates a scenario where features extracted using different toolboxes could not be used to build or validate the same model leading to a non-generalization of radiomic results. In this study, the image biomarker standardization initiative (IBSI) established phantom and benchmark values were used to compare the variation of the radiomic features while using 6 publicly available software programs and 1 in-house radiomics pipeline. All IBSI-standardized features (11 classes, 173 in total) were extracted. The relative differences between the extracted feature values from the different software and the IBSI benchmark values were calculated to measure the inter-software agreement. To better understand the variations, features are further grouped into 3 categories according to their properties: 1) morphology, 2) statistic/histogram and 3)texture features. While a good agreement was observed for a majority of radiomics features across the various programs, relatively poor agreement was observed for morphology features. Significant differences were also found in programs that use different gray level discretization approaches. Since these programs do not include all IBSI features, the level of quantitative assessment for each category was analyzed using Venn and the UpSet diagrams and also quantified using two ad hoc metrics. Morphology features earns lowest scores for both metrics, indicating that morphological features are not consistently evaluated among software programs. We conclude that radiomic features calculated using different software programs may not be identical and reliable. Further studies are needed to standardize the workflow of radiomic feature extraction.