Clément Mantoux

Clément Elliker, Mathis Le Bail, Clément Mantoux et al.

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

Clément Chadebec, Clément Mantoux, Stéphanie Allassonnière

Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) have proven to be a well suited tool for performing dimensionality reduction by extracting latent variables lying in a potentially much smaller dimensional space than the data. Their ability to capture meaningful information from the data can be easily apprehended when considering their capability to generate new realistic samples or perform potentially meaningful interpolations in a much smaller space. However, such generative models may perform poorly when trained on small data sets which are abundant in many real-life fields such as medicine. This may, among others, come from the lack of structure of the latent space, the geometry of which is often under-considered. We thus propose in this paper to see the latent space as a Riemannian manifold endowed with a parametrized metric learned at the same time as the encoder and decoder networks. This metric is then used in what we called the Riemannian Hamiltonian VAE which extends the Hamiltonian VAE introduced by arXiv:1805.11328 to better exploit the underlying geometry of the latent space. We argue that such latent space modelling provides useful information about its underlying structure leading to far more meaningful interpolations, more realistic data-generation and more reliable clustering.