Jacklynn Stott

Remi Lam, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Matthew Willson et al. · deepmind

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Ilan Price, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Ferran Alet et al.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

Ravichandra Addanki, Peter W. Battaglia, David Budden et al.

Effectively and efficiently deploying graph neural networks (GNNs) at scale remains one of the most challenging aspects of graph representation learning. Many powerful solutions have only ever been validated on comparatively small datasets, often with counter-intuitive outcomes -- a barrier which has been broken by the Open Graph Benchmark Large-Scale Challenge (OGB-LSC). We entered the OGB-LSC with two large-scale GNNs: a deep transductive node classifier powered by bootstrapping, and a very deep (up to 50-layer) inductive graph regressor regularised by denoising objectives. Our models achieved an award-level (top-3) performance on both the MAG240M and PCQM4M benchmarks. In doing so, we demonstrate evidence of scalable self-supervised graph representation learning, and utility of very deep GNNs -- both very important open issues. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/deepmind/deepmind-research/tree/master/ogb_lsc.

Ferran Alet, Ilan Price, Andrew El-Kadi et al.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in global probabilistic weather forecasting. This paper presents FGN, a simple, scalable and flexible modeling approach which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. FGN generates ensembles via learned model-perturbations with an ensemble of appropriately constrained models. It is trained directly to minimize the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) of per-location forecasts. It produces state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts as measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics, makes skillful ensemble tropical cyclone track predictions, and captures joint spatial structure despite being trained only on marginals.