Esther Rodrigo Bonet

Seyed Mohamad Moghadas, Esther Rodrigo Bonet, Bruno Cornelis et al.

Residual error propagation remains a fundamental problem in recurrent models, where small prediction inaccuracies compound over time and degrade long-horizon performance. Accurately modeling the correlation structure of such residuals is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic multivariate timeseries forecasting. While recent time-series deep models efficiently parametrize time-varying contemporaneous correlations, they often assume temporal independence of errors and neglect spatial correlation across the observed network. In this paper, we introduce Teger, a structured uncertainty module that overcomes the spa- tial and temporal limitations of error-correlated autoregressive forecasting. Teger proposes a spatial curvature-aware graph rewiring mechanism explicitly strengthening information-bottleneck edges identified by discrete Forman curvature. The component is integrated into a low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance head, preserving tractable inference via the Woodbury identity. Teger is backbone-agnostic, requiring only the latent state produced by any autoregressive encoder. We provide theoretical evidence of Teger, and experimentally evaluate it on LSTM, Transformer, and xLSTM backbones across four real-world spatio-temporal datasets, showing consistent improvement in Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We further provide a formal theoretical analysis connecting curvature-aware rewiring to (i) oversquashing alleviation, (ii) improved spectral connectivity, (iii) reduced effective resistance, and (iv) improved covariance calibration bounds

Esther Rodrigo Bonet, Duc Minh Nguyen, Nikos Deligiannis

Temporal collaborative filtering (TCF) methods aim at modelling non-static aspects behind recommender systems, such as the dynamics in users' preferences and social trends around items. State-of-the-art TCF methods employ recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to model such aspects. These methods deploy matrix-factorization-based (MF-based) approaches to learn the user and item representations. Recently, graph-neural-network-based (GNN-based) approaches have shown improved performance in providing accurate recommendations over traditional MF-based approaches in non-temporal CF settings. Motivated by this, we propose a novel TCF method that leverages GNNs to learn user and item representations, and RNNs to model their temporal dynamics. A challenge with this method lies in the increased data sparsity, which negatively impacts obtaining meaningful quality representations with GNNs. To overcome this challenge, we train a GNN model at each time step using a set of observed interactions accumulated time-wise. Comprehensive experiments on real-world data show the improved performance obtained by our method over several state-of-the-art temporal and non-temporal CF models.