B. Scott Gaudi

Keming Zhang, B. Scott Gaudi, Joshua S. Bloom

While gravitational microlensing by planetary systems provides unique vistas on the properties of exoplanets, observations of a given 2-body microlensing event can often be interpreted with multiple distinct physical configurations. Such ambiguities are typically attributed to the close-wide and inner-outer types of degeneracies that arise from transformation invariances and symmetries of microlensing caustics. However, there remain unexplained inconsistencies between aforementioned theories and observations. Here, leveraging a fast machine learning inference framework, we present the discovery of the offset degeneracy, which concerns a magnification-matching behaviour on the lens-axis and is formulated independent of caustics. This offset degeneracy unifies the close-wide and inner-outer degeneracies, generalises to resonant topologies, and upon reanalysis, not only appears ubiquitous in previously published planetary events with 2-fold degenerate solutions, but also resolves prior inconsistencies. Our analysis demonstrates that degenerate caustics do not strictly result in degenerate magnifications and that the commonly invoked close-wide degeneracy essentially never arises in actual events. Moreover, it is shown that parameters in offset degenerate configurations are related by a simple expression. This suggests the existence of a deeper symmetry in the equations governing 2-body lenses than previously recognised.

Keming Zhang, Joshua S. Bloom, B. Scott Gaudi et al.

Fast and automated inference of binary-lens, single-source (2L1S) microlensing events with sampling-based Bayesian algorithms (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo; MCMC) is challenged on two fronts: high computational cost of likelihood evaluations with microlensing simulation codes, and a pathological parameter space where the negative-log-likelihood surface can contain a multitude of local minima that are narrow and deep. Analysis of 2L1S events usually involves grid searches over some parameters to locate approximate solutions as a prerequisite to posterior sampling, an expensive process that often requires human-in-the-loop domain expertise. As the next-generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Telescope is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new fast and automated method is desirable. Here, we present a likelihood-free inference (LFI) approach named amortized neural posterior estimation, where a neural density estimator (NDE) learns a surrogate posterior $\hat{p}(θ|x)$ as an observation-parametrized conditional probability distribution, from pre-computed simulations over the full prior space. Trained on 291,012 simulated Roman-like 2L1S simulations, the NDE produces accurate and precise posteriors within seconds for any observation within the prior support without requiring a domain expert in the loop, thus allowing for real-time and automated inference. We show that the NDE also captures expected posterior degeneracies. The NDE posterior could then be refined into the exact posterior with a downstream MCMC sampler with minimal burn-in steps.

Keming Zhang, Joshua S. Bloom, B. Scott Gaudi et al.

Automated inference of binary microlensing events with traditional sampling-based algorithms such as MCMC has been hampered by the slowness of the physical forward model and the pathological likelihood surface. Current analysis of such events requires both expert knowledge and large-scale grid searches to locate the approximate solution as a prerequisite to MCMC posterior sampling. As the next generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Observatory is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new scalable and automated approach is desired. Here, we present an automated inference method based on neural density estimation (NDE). We show that the NDE trained on simulated Roman data not only produces fast, accurate, and precise posteriors but also captures expected posterior degeneracies. A hybrid NDE-MCMC framework can further be applied to produce the exact posterior.