Paulo André Lima de Castro

Paulo André Lima de Castro

Autonomous trading robots have been studied in artificial intelligence area for quite some time. Many AI techniques have been tested for building autonomous agents able to trade financial assets. These initiatives include traditional neural networks, fuzzy logic, reinforcement learning but also more recent approaches like deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning. Many developers claim to be successful in creating robots with great performance when simulating execution with historical price series, so called backtesting. However, when these robots are used in real markets frequently they present poor performance in terms of risks and return. In this paper, we propose an open source framework (mt5se) that helps the development, backtesting, live testing and real operation of autonomous traders. We built and tested several traders using mt5se. The results indicate that it may help the development of better traders. Furthermore, we discuss the simple architecture that is used in many studies and propose an alternative multiagent architecture. Such architecture separates two main concerns for portfolio manager (PM) : price prediction and capital allocation. More than achieve a high accuracy, a PM should increase profits when it is right and reduce loss when it is wrong. Furthermore, price prediction is highly dependent of asset's nature and history, while capital allocation is dependent only on analyst's prediction performance and assets' correlation. Finally, we discuss some promising technologies in the area.

Gabriel Adriano de Melo, Marcos Ricardo Omena De Albuquerque Maximo, Nei Yoshihiro Soma et al.

The inner alignment problem, which asserts whether an arbitrary artificial intelligence (AI) model satisfices a non-trivial alignment function of its outputs given its inputs, is undecidable. This is rigorously proved by Rice's theorem, which is also equivalent to a reduction to Turing's Halting Problem, whose proof sketch is presented in this work. Nevertheless, there is an enumerable set of provenly aligned AIs that are constructed from a finite set of provenly aligned operations. Therefore, we argue that the alignment should be a guaranteed property from the AI architecture rather than a characteristic imposed post-hoc on an arbitrary AI model. Furthermore, while the outer alignment problem is the definition of a judge function that captures human values and preferences, we propose that such a function must also impose a halting constraint that guarantees that the AI model always reaches a terminal state in finite execution steps. Our work presents examples and models that illustrate this constraint and the intricate challenges involved, advancing a compelling case for adopting an intrinsically hard-aligned approach to AI systems architectures that ensures halting.

Paulo André Lima de Castro

Autonomous trading strategies have been a subject of research within the field of artificial intelligence (AI) for aconsiderable period. Various AI techniques have been explored to develop autonomous agents capable of trading financial assets. These approaches encompass traditional methods such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, and reinforcement learning, as well as more recent advancements, including deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning. Many developers report success in creating strategies that exhibit strong performance during simulations using historical price data, a process commonly referred to as backtesting. However, when these strategies are deployed in real markets, their performance often deteriorates, particularly in terms of risk-adjusted returns. In this study, we propose an AI-based strategy inspired by a classical investment paradigm: Value Investing. Financial AI models are highly susceptible to lookahead bias and other forms of bias that can significantly inflate performance in backtesting compared to live trading conditions. To address this issue, we conducted a series of computational simulations while controlling for these biases, thereby reducing the risk of overfitting. Our results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms major Brazilian market benchmarks. Moreover, the strategy, named AlphaX, demonstrated superior performance relative to widely used technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI), with statistically significant results. Finally, we discuss several open challenges and highlight emerging technologies in qualitative analysis that may contribute to the development of a comprehensive AI-based Value Investing framework in the future

Carlos Henrique Q. Forster, Paulo André Lima de Castro, Andrei Ramalho

In this paper, we propose a methodology for the analysis of questionnaire data along with its application on discovering insights from investor data motivated by a day trading competition. The questionnaire includes categorical questions, which are reduced to binary questions, 'yes' or 'no'. The methodology reduces dimensionality by grouping questions and participants with similar responses using clustering analysis. Rule discovery was performed by using a conversion rate metric. Innovative visual representations were proposed to validate the cluster analysis and the relation discovery between questions. When crossing with financial data, additional insights were revealed related to the recognized clusters.

Murilo Sibrao Bernardini, Paulo Andre Lima de Castro

In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating autonomous trading strategies that provides realistic expectations, regarding the strategy's long-term performance. This method addresses This method addresses many pitfalls that currently fool even experienced software developers and researchers, not to mention the customers that purchase these products. We present the results of applying our method to several famous autonomous trading strategies, which are used to manage a diverse selection of financial assets. The results show that many of these published strategies are far from being reliable vehicles for financial investment. Our method exposes the difficulties involved in building a reliable, long-term strategy and provides a means to compare potential strategies and select the most promising one by establishing minimal periods and requirements for the test executions. There are many developers that create software to buy and sell financial assets autonomously and some of them present great performance when simulating with historical price series (commonly called backtests). Nevertheless, when these strategies are used in real markets (or data not used in their training or evaluation), quite often they perform very poorly. The proposed method can be used to evaluate potential strategies. In this way, the method helps to tell if you really have a great trading strategy or you are just fooling yourself.