Matthew Forshaw

Mehmet Cengiz, Matthew Forshaw, Amir Atapour-Abarghouei et al.

Predicting the performance and energy consumption of computing hardware is critical for many modern applications. This will inform procurement decisions, deployment decisions, and autonomic scaling. Existing approaches to understanding the performance of hardware largely focus around benchmarking -- leveraging standardised workloads which seek to be representative of an end-user's needs. Two key challenges are present; benchmark workloads may not be representative of an end-user's workload, and benchmark scores are not easily obtained for all hardware. Within this paper, we demonstrate the potential to build Deep Learning models to predict benchmark scores for unseen hardware. We undertake our evaluation with the openly available SPEC 2017 benchmark results. We evaluate three different networks, one fully-connected network along with two Convolutional Neural Networks (one bespoke and one ResNet inspired) and demonstrate impressive $R^2$ scores of 0.96, 0.98 and 0.94 respectively.

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Matthew Forshaw et al.

Data uncertainty is inherent in many real-world applications and poses significant challenges for accurate time series predictions. The interval type 2 fuzzy neural network (IT2FNN) has shown exceptional performance in uncertainty modelling for single-step prediction tasks. However, extending it for multi-step ahead predictions introduces further issues in uncertainty handling as well as model interpretability and accuracy. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new selforganizing interval type-2 fuzzy neural network with multiple outputs (SOIT2FNN-MO). Differing from the traditional six-layer IT2FNN, a nine-layer network architecture is developed. First, a new co-antecedent layer and a modified consequent layer are devised to improve the interpretability of the fuzzy model for multi-step time series prediction problems. Second, a new link layer is created to improve the accuracy by building temporal connections between multi-step predictions. Third, a new transformation layer is designed to address the problem of the vanishing rule strength caused by high-dimensional inputs. Furthermore, a two-stage, self-organizing learning mechanism is developed to automatically extract fuzzy rules from data and optimize network parameters. Experimental results on chaotic and microgrid prediction problems demonstrate that SOIT2FNN-MO outperforms state-of-the-art methods, by achieving a better accuracy ranging from 1.6% to 30% depending on the level of noises in data. Additionally, the proposed model is more interpretable, offering deeper insights into the prediction process.

Raghda Zahran, Jianfei Xu, Huizhi Liang et al.

Objective This study is part of a series of initiatives at a UK university designed to cultivate a deep understanding of students' perspectives on analytics that resonate with their unique learning needs. It explores collaborative data processing undertaken by postgraduate students who examined an Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD). Methods A qualitative approach was adopted, integrating a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and a Large Language Model (LLM) technique with human-led content analysis to gather information about students' perspectives based on their submitted work. The study involved 72 postgraduate students in 12 groups. Findings The analysis of group work revealed diverse insights into essential learning analytics from the students' perspectives. All groups adopted a structured data science methodology. The questions formulated by the groups were categorised into seven themes, reflecting their specific areas of interest. While there was variation in the selected variables to interpret correlations, a consensus was found regarding the general results. Conclusion A significant outcome of this study is that students specialising in data science exhibited a deeper understanding of learning analytics, effectively articulating their interests through inferences drawn from their analyses. While human-led content analysis provided a general understanding of students' perspectives, the LLM offered nuanced insights.

Alexander J. M. Kell, A. Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

Averting the effects of anthropogenic climate change requires a transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon technology. A way to achieve this is to decarbonize the electricity grid. However, further efforts must be made in other fields such as transport and heating for full decarbonization. This would reduce carbon emissions due to electricity generation, and also help to decarbonize other sources such as automotive and heating by enabling a low-carbon alternative. Carbon taxes have been shown to be an efficient way to aid in this transition. In this paper, we demonstrate how to to find optimal carbon tax policies through a genetic algorithm approach, using the electricity market agent-based model ElecSim. To achieve this, we use the NSGA-II genetic algorithm to minimize average electricity price and relative carbon intensity of the electricity mix. We demonstrate that it is possible to find a range of carbon taxes to suit differing objectives. Our results show that we are able to minimize electricity cost to below \textsterling10/MWh as well as carbon intensity to zero in every case. In terms of the optimal carbon tax strategy, we found that an increasing strategy between 2020 and 2035 was preferable. Each of the Pareto-front optimal tax strategies are at least above \textsterling81/tCO2 for every year. The mean carbon tax strategy was \textsterling240/tCO2.

Alexander J. M. Kell, Matthew Forshaw, A. Stephen McGough

Many systems require optimisation over multiple objectives, where objectives are characteristics of the system such as energy consumed or increase in time to perform the work. Optimisation is performed by selecting the `best' set of input parameters to elicit the desired objectives. However, the parameter search space can often be far larger than can be searched in a reasonable time. Additionally, the objectives are often mutually exclusive -- leading to a decision being made as to which objective is more important or optimising over a combination of the objectives. This work is an application of a Genetic Algorithm to identify the Pareto frontier for finding the optimal parameter sets for all combinations of objectives. A Pareto frontier can be used to identify the sets of optimal parameters for which each is the `best' for a given combination of objectives -- thus allowing decisions to be made with full knowledge. We demonstrate this approach for the HTC-Sim simulation system in the case where a Reinforcement Learning scheduler is tuned for the two objectives of energy consumption and task overhead. Demonstrating that this approach can reduce the energy consumed by ~36% over previously published work without significantly increasing the overhead.

A. Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw, John Brennan et al.

High Throughput Computing (HTC) provides a convenient mechanism for running thousands of tasks. Many HTC systems exploit computers which are provisioned for other purposes by utilising their idle time - volunteer computing. This has great advantages as it gives access to vast quantities of computational power for little or no cost. The downside is that running tasks are sacrificed if the computer is needed for its primary use. Normally terminating the task which must be restarted on a different computer - leading to wasted energy and an increase in task completion time. We demonstrate, through the use of simulation, how we can reduce this wasted energy by targeting tasks at computers less likely to be needed for primary use, predicting this idle time through machine learning. By combining two machine learning approaches, namely Random Forest and MultiLayer Perceptron, we save 51.4% of the energy without significantly affecting the time to complete tasks.