Alexander Marusov

Alexander Marusov, Vsevolod Grabar, Yury Maximov et al.

The problem of high-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. Yet, it is still unsolved with reasonable accuracy due to data complexity and aridity stochasticity. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a spatio-temporal neural network model with accessible open monthly climate data as the input. Our systematic research employs diverse proposed models and five distinct environmental regions as a testbed to evaluate the efficacy of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) prediction. Key aggregated findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts. At the same time, the Convolutional LSTM excels in longer-term forecasting.

Alexander Marusov, Alexey Zaytsev

The representation learning problem in the oil & gas industry aims to construct a model that provides a representation based on logging data for a well interval. Previous attempts are mainly supervised and focus on similarity task, which estimates closeness between intervals. We desire to build informative representations without using supervised (labelled) data. One of the possible approaches is self-supervised learning (SSL). In contrast to the supervised paradigm, this one requires little or no labels for the data. Nowadays, most SSL approaches are either contrastive or non-contrastive. Contrastive methods make representations of similar (positive) objects closer and distancing different (negative) ones. Due to possible wrong marking of positive and negative pairs, these methods can provide an inferior performance. Non-contrastive methods don't rely on such labelling and are widespread in computer vision. They learn using only pairs of similar objects that are easier to identify in logging data. We are the first to introduce non-contrastive SSL for well-logging data. In particular, we exploit Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) and Barlow Twins methods that avoid using negative pairs and focus only on matching positive pairs. The crucial part of these methods is an augmentation strategy. Our augmentation strategies and adaption of BYOL and Barlow Twins together allow us to achieve superior quality on clusterization and mostly the best performance on different classification tasks. Our results prove the usefulness of the proposed non-contrastive self-supervised approaches for representation learning and interval similarity in particular.

Ilya Kuleshov, Alexander Marusov, Alexey Zaytsev

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled time series is crucial in domains such as healthcare and finance, yet it remains a formidable challenge. Existing Neural Controlled Differential Equation (Neural CDE) approaches, while effective at modelling continuous dynamics, suffer from slow, inherently sequential computation, which restricts scalability and limits access to global context. We introduce UFO (U-Former ODE), a novel architecture that seamlessly integrates the parallelizable, multiscale feature extraction of U-Nets, the powerful global modelling of Transformers, and the continuous-time dynamics of Neural CDEs. By constructing a fully causal, parallelizable model, UFO achieves a global receptive field while retaining strong sensitivity to local temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments on five standard benchmarks -- covering both regularly and irregularly sampled time series -- demonstrate that UFO consistently outperforms ten state-of-the-art neural baselines in predictive accuracy. Moreover, UFO delivers up to 15$\times$ faster inference compared to conventional Neural CDEs, with consistently strong performance on long and highly multivariate sequences.

Alexander Marusov, Aleksandr Yugay, Alexey Zaytsev

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful approach to learning representations, particularly in the field of computer vision. However, its application to dependent data, such as temporal and spatio-temporal domains, remains underexplored. Besides, traditional contrastive SSL methods often assume \emph{semantic independence between samples}, which does not hold for dependent data exhibiting complex correlations. We propose a novel theoretical framework for contrastive SSL tailored to \emph{continuous dependent data}, which allows the nearest samples to be semantically close to each other. In particular, we propose two possible \textit{ground truth similarity measures} between objects -- \emph{hard} and \emph{soft} closeness. Under it, we derive an analytical form for the \textit{estimated similarity matrix} that accommodates both types of closeness between samples, thereby introducing dependency-aware loss functions. We validate our approach, \emph{Dependent TS2Vec}, on temporal and spatio-temporal downstream problems. Given the dependency patterns presented in the data, our approach surpasses modern ones for dependent data, highlighting the effectiveness of our theoretically grounded loss functions for SSL in capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we outperform TS2Vec on the standard UEA and UCR benchmarks, with accuracy improvements of $4.17$\% and $2.08$\%, respectively. Furthermore, on the drought classification task, which involves complex spatio-temporal patterns, our method achieves a $7$\% higher ROC-AUC score.