Xiangning Yu

Yuwei Guo, Zihan Zhao, Xiaowei Liu et al.

Multi-agent simulation based on LLMs has increasingly emerged as a new paradigm for exploring complex social phenomena and validating theoretical hypotheses. However, traditional experimental design in the social sciences relies heavily on interdisciplinary expert knowledge, involving cumbersome procedures and high technical barriers. While LLM-driven agents demonstrate broad prospects for designing experiments, their limitations regarding reliability and scientific rigor continue to significantly hinder their in-depth application in social science research. To address these challenges, this paper proposes FSTS, an automated framework for multi-agent experiment design based on script generation. Drawing on the concept of the "Decision Theater," the framework deconstructs experimental design into three core phases: Script Composition, Script Finalization, and Actor Generation. Tests across multiple scenarios indicate that the agents generated by this framework can enact the script within the "experimental theater", reproducing results consistent with real-world situations. The proposal of FSTS not only effectively lowers the barrier for social science experimental design but also provides scientifically grounded decision support for policy-making.

Xiangning Yu, Yuwei Guo, Yuqi Hou et al.

LLM-empowered agent simulations are increasingly used to study social emergence, yet the micro-to-macro causal mechanisms behind macro outcomes often remain unclear. This is challenging because emergence arises from intertwined agent interactions and meso-level feedback and nonlinearity, making generative mechanisms hard to disentangle. To this end, we introduce \textbf{\textsc{CAMO}}, an automated \textbf{Ca}usal discovery framework from \textbf{M}icr\textbf{o} behaviors to \textbf{M}acr\textbf{o} Emergence in LLM agent simulations. \textsc{CAMO} converts mechanistic hypotheses into computable factors grounded in simulation records and learns a compact causal representation centered on an emergent target $Y$. \textsc{CAMO} outputs a computable Markov boundary and a minimal upstream explanatory subgraph, yielding interpretable causal chains and actionable intervention levers. It also uses simulator-internal counterfactual probing to orient ambiguous edges and revise hypotheses when evidence contradicts the current view. Experiments across four emergent settings demonstrate the promise of \textsc{CAMO}.

Yuxiang Chen, Zuohan Wu, Ziwei Wang et al.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have garnered significant attention from researchers owing to their exceptional capability in addressing complex tasks. Motivated by the observed human-like behaviors in their reasoning processes, this paper introduces a comprehensive taxonomy to characterize atomic reasoning steps and probe the ``psyche'' of LRM intelligence. Specifically, it comprises five groups and seventeen categories derived from human mental processes, thereby grounding the understanding of LRMs in an interdisciplinary perspective. The taxonomy is then applied for an in-depth understanding of current LRMs, resulting in a distinct labeled dataset that comprises 277,534 atomic reasoning steps. Using this resource, we analyze contemporary LRMs and distill several actionable takeaways for improving training and post-training of reasoning models. Notably, our analysis reveals that prevailing post-answer ``double-checks'' (self-monitoring evaluations) are largely superficial and rarely yield substantive revisions. Thus, incentivizing comprehensive multi-step reflection, rather than simple self-monitoring, may offer a more effective path forward. To complement the taxonomy, an automatic annotation framework, named CAPO, is proposed to leverage large language models (LLMs) for generating the taxonomy-based annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that CAPO achieves higher consistency with human experts compared to baselines, facilitating a scalable and comprehensive analysis of LRMs from a human cognitive perspective. Together, the taxonomy, CAPO, and the derived insights provide a principled, scalable path toward understanding and advancing LRM reasoning.

Qun Ma, Xiao Xue, Deyu Zhou et al.

Computational experiments have emerged as a valuable method for studying complex systems, involving the algorithmization of counterfactuals. However, accurately representing real social systems in Agent-based Modeling (ABM) is challenging due to the diverse and intricate characteristics of humans, including bounded rationality and heterogeneity. To address this limitation, the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) has been proposed, enabling agents to possess anthropomorphic abilities such as complex reasoning and autonomous learning. These agents, known as LLM-based Agent, offer the potential to enhance the anthropomorphism lacking in ABM. Nonetheless, the absence of explicit explainability in LLMs significantly hinders their application in the social sciences. Conversely, computational experiments excel in providing causal analysis of individual behaviors and complex phenomena. Thus, combining computational experiments with LLM-based Agent holds substantial research potential. This paper aims to present a comprehensive exploration of this fusion. Primarily, it outlines the historical development of agent structures and their evolution into artificial societies, emphasizing their importance in computational experiments. Then it elucidates the advantages that computational experiments and LLM-based Agents offer each other, considering the perspectives of LLM-based Agent for computational experiments and vice versa. Finally, this paper addresses the challenges and future trends in this research domain, offering guidance for subsequent related studies.

Xiangning Yu, Zhuohan Wang, Linyi Yang et al. · pku

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting plays an indispensable role in endowing large language models (LLMs) with complex reasoning capabilities. However, CoT currently faces two fundamental challenges: (1) Sufficiency, which ensures that the generated intermediate inference steps comprehensively cover and substantiate the final conclusion; and (2) Necessity, which identifies the inference steps that are truly indispensable for the soundness of the resulting answer. We propose a causal framework that characterizes CoT reasoning through the dual lenses of sufficiency and necessity. Incorporating causal Probability of Sufficiency and Necessity allows us not only to determine which steps are logically sufficient or necessary to the prediction outcome, but also to quantify their actual influence on the final reasoning outcome under different intervention scenarios, thereby enabling the automated addition of missing steps and the pruning of redundant ones. Extensive experimental results on various mathematical and commonsense reasoning benchmarks confirm substantial improvements in reasoning efficiency and reduced token usage without sacrificing accuracy. Our work provides a promising direction for improving LLM reasoning performance and cost-effectiveness.

Qirui Mi, Mengyue Yang, Xiangning Yu et al.

Simulating collective decision-making involves more than aggregating individual behaviors; it emerges from dynamic interactions among individuals. While large language models (LLMs) offer strong potential for social simulation, achieving quantitative alignment with real-world data remains a key challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose the Mean-Field LLM (MF-LLM) framework, the first to incorporate mean field theory into LLM-based social simulation. MF-LLM models bidirectional interactions between individuals and the population through an iterative process, generating population signals to guide individual decisions, which in turn update the signals. This interplay produces coherent trajectories of collective behavior. To improve alignment with real-world data, we introduce IB-Tune, a novel fine-tuning method inspired by the Information Bottleneck principle, which retains population signals most predictive of future actions while filtering redundant history. Evaluated on a real-world social dataset, MF-LLM reduces KL divergence to human population distributions by 47\% compared to non-mean-field baselines, enabling accurate trend forecasting and effective intervention planning. Generalizing across 7 domains and 4 LLM backbones, MF-LLM provides a scalable, high-fidelity foundation for social simulation.

Xiangning Yu, Qirui Mi, Xiao Xue et al.

Social norms are stable behavioral patterns that emerge endogenously within economic systems through repeated interactions among agents. In online market economies, such norms -- like fair exposure, sustained participation, and balanced reinvestment -- are critical for long-term stability. We aim to understand the causal mechanisms driving these emergent norms and to design principled interventions that can steer them toward desired outcomes. This is challenging because norms arise from countless micro-level interactions that aggregate into macro-level regularities, making causal attribution and policy transferability difficult. To address this, we propose \textbf{Invariant Causal Routing (ICR)}, a causal governance framework that identifies policy-norm relations stable across heterogeneous environments. ICR integrates counterfactual reasoning with invariant causal discovery to separate genuine causal effects from spurious correlations and to construct interpretable, auditable policy rules that remain effective under distribution shift. In heterogeneous agent simulations calibrated with real data, ICR yields more stable norms, smaller generalization gaps, and more concise rules than correlation or coverage baselines, demonstrating that causal invariance offers a principled and interpretable foundation for governance.