Léo Simpson

Léo Simpson, Moritz Diehl

Prediction error and maximum likelihood methods are powerful tools for identifying linear dynamical systems and, in particular, enable the joint estimation of model parameters and the Kalman filter used for state estimation. A key limitation, however, is that these methods require solving a generally non-convex optimization problem to global optimality. This paper analyzes the statistical behavior of local minimizers in the special case where only the Kalman gain is estimated. We prove that these local solutions are statistically consistent estimates of the true Kalman gain. This follows from asymptotic unimodality: as the dataset grows, the objective function converges to a limit with a unique local (and therefore global) minimizer. We further provide guidelines for designing the optimization problem for Kalman filter tuning and discuss extensions to the joint estimation of additional linear parameters and noise covariances. Finally, the theoretical results are illustrated using three examples of increasing complexity. The main practical takeaway of this paper is that difficulties caused by local minimizers in system identification are, at least, not attributable to the tuning of the Kalman gain.

Léo Simpson, Patrick L. Combettes, Christian L. Müller

We introduce c-lasso, a Python package that enables sparse and robust linear regression and classification with linear equality constraints. The underlying statistical forward model is assumed to be of the following form: \[ y = X β+ σε\qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad Cβ=0 \] Here, $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$is a given design matrix and the vector $y \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$ is a continuous or binary response vector. The matrix $C$ is a general constraint matrix. The vector $β\in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ contains the unknown coefficients and $σ$ an unknown scale. Prominent use cases are (sparse) log-contrast regression with compositional data $X$, requiring the constraint $1_d^T β= 0$ (Aitchion and Bacon-Shone 1984) and the Generalized Lasso which is a special case of the described problem (see, e.g, (James, Paulson, and Rusmevichientong 2020), Example 3). The c-lasso package provides estimators for inferring unknown coefficients and scale (i.e., perspective M-estimators (Combettes and Müller 2020a)) of the form \[ \min_{β\in \mathbb{R}^d, σ\in \mathbb{R}_{0}} f\left(Xβ- y,σ \right) + λ\left\lVert β\right\rVert_1 \qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad Cβ= 0 \] for several convex loss functions $f(\cdot,\cdot)$. This includes the constrained Lasso, the constrained scaled Lasso, and sparse Huber M-estimators with linear equality constraints.