Riccardo Sven Risuleo

Riccardo Sven Risuleo, Marco Molinari, Giulio Bottegal et al.

This paper describes a benchmark consisting of a set of synthetic measurements relative to an office environment simulated with the software IDA-ICE. The simulated environment reproduces a laboratory at the KTH-EES Smart Building, equipped with a building management system. The data set contains records collected over a period of several days. The signals to CO$_2$ concentration, mechanical ventilation airflows, air infiltrations and occupancy. Information on door and window opening is also available. This benchmark is intended for testing data-based modeling techniques. The ultimate goal is the development of models to improve the forecast and control of environmental variables. Among the numerous challenges related to this framework, we point out the problem of occupancy estimation using information on CO$_2$ concentration. This can be seen as a blind identification problem. For benchmarking purposes, we present two different identification approaches: a baseline overparametrization method and a kernel-based method.

Riccardo Sven Risuleo, Giulio Bottegal, Håkan Hjalmarsson

In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for the identification of Hammerstein systems. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we model the impulse response of the unknown linear dynamic system as a realization of a zero-mean Gaussian process. The covariance matrix (or kernel) of this process is given by the recently introduced stable-spline kernel, which encodes information on the stability and regularity of the impulse response. The static non-linearity of the model is identified using an Empirical Bayes approach, i.e. by maximizing the output marginal likelihood, which is obtained by integrating out the unknown impulse response. The related optimization problem is solved adopting a novel iterative scheme based on the Expectation-Maximization (EM) method, where each iteration consists in a simple sequence of update rules. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method compares favorably with a standard algorithm for Hammerstein system identification.

Alexandra Hotti, Riccardo Sven Risuleo, Stefan Magureanu et al.

Web automation holds the potential to revolutionize how users interact with the digital world, offering unparalleled assistance and simplifying tasks via sophisticated computational methods. Central to this evolution is the web element nomination task, which entails identifying unique elements on webpages. Unfortunately, the development of algorithmic designs for web automation is hampered by the scarcity of comprehensive and realistic datasets that reflect the complexity faced by real-world applications on the Web. To address this, we introduce the Klarna Product Page Dataset, a comprehensive and diverse collection of webpages that surpasses existing datasets in richness and variety. The dataset features 51,701 manually labeled product pages from 8,175 e-commerce websites across eight geographic regions, accompanied by a dataset of rendered page screenshots. To initiate research on the Klarna Product Page Dataset, we empirically benchmark a range of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) on the web element nomination task. We make three important contributions. First, we found that a simple Convolutional GNN (GCN) outperforms complex state-of-the-art nomination methods. Second, we introduce a training refinement procedure that involves identifying a small number of relevant elements from each page using the aforementioned GCN. These elements are then passed to a large language model for the final nomination. This procedure significantly improves the nomination accuracy by 16.8 percentage points on our challenging dataset, without any need for fine-tuning. Finally, in response to another prevalent challenge in this field - the abundance of training methodologies suitable for element nomination - we introduce the Challenge Nomination Training Procedure, a novel training approach that further boosts nomination accuracy.

Anna Wigren, Riccardo Sven Risuleo, Lawrence Murray et al.

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to otherwise intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to that of the exact method. We focus on particle Gibbs and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling, improving their performance beyond that of the underlying Gibbs sampler (which they approximate) by marginalizing out one or more parameters. This is possible when the parameter prior is conjugate to the complete data likelihood. Marginalization yields a non-Markovian model for inference, but we show that, in contrast to the general case, this method still scales linearly in time. While marginalization can be cumbersome to implement, recent advances in probabilistic programming have enabled its automation. We demonstrate how the marginalized methods are viable as efficient inference backends in probabilistic programming, and demonstrate with examples in ecology and epidemiology.

Riccardo Sven Risuleo, Giulio Bottegal, Håkan Hjalmarsson

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about the input or the linear system, we use Gaussian-process models. We estimate the model from data using the empirical Bayes approach: the input and the impulse responses of the linear system are estimated using the posterior means of the Gaussian-process models given the data, and the hyperparameters that characterize the Gaussian-process models are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data. We propose an iterative algorithm to find the hyperparameters that relies on the EM method and results in simple update steps. In the most general formulation, neither the marginal likelihood nor the posterior distribution of the unknowns is tractable. Therefore, we propose two approximation approaches, one based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo techniques and one based on variational Bayes approximation. We also show special model structures for which the distributions are treatable exactly. Through numerical simulations, we study the application of the uncertain-input model to the identification of Hammerstein systems and cascaded linear systems. As part of the contribution of the paper, we show that this model structure encompasses many classical problems in system identification such as classical PEM, Hammerstein models, errors-in-variables problems, blind system identification, and cascaded linear systems. This allows us to build a systematic procedure to apply the algorithms proposed in this work to a wide class of classical problems.

Giulio Bottegal, Riccardo S. Risuleo, Håkan Hjalmarsson

We propose a new method for blind system identification. Resorting to a Gaussian regression framework, we model the impulse response of the unknown linear system as a realization of a Gaussian process. The structure of the covariance matrix (or kernel) of such a process is given by the stable spline kernel, which has been recently introduced for system identification purposes and depends on an unknown hyperparameter. We assume that the input can be linearly described by few parameters. We estimate these parameters, together with the kernel hyperparameter and the noise variance, using an empirical Bayes approach. The related optimization problem is efficiently solved with a novel iterative scheme based on the Expectation-Maximization method. In particular, we show that each iteration consists of a set of simple update rules. We show, through some numerical experiments, very promising performance of the proposed method.