Gabriel Spadon

Martha Dais Ferreira, Gabriel Spadon, Amilcar Soares et al.

Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages are useful for tracking vessel activity across oceans worldwide using radio links and satellite transceivers. Such data plays a significant role in tracking vessel activity and mapping mobility patterns such as those found in fishing. Accordingly, this paper proposes a geometric-driven semi-supervised approach for fishing activity detection from AIS data. Through the proposed methodology we show how to explore the information included in the messages to extract features describing the geometry of the vessel route. To this end, we leverage the unsupervised nature of cluster analysis to label the trajectory geometry highlighting the changes in the vessel's moving pattern which tends to indicate fishing activity. The labels obtained by the proposed unsupervised approach are used to detect fishing activities, which we approach as a time-series classification task. In this context, we propose a solution using recurrent neural networks on AIS data streams with roughly 87% of the overall $F$-score on the whole trajectories of 50 different unseen fishing vessels. Such results are accompanied by a broad benchmark study assessing the performance of different Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures. In conclusion, this work contributes by proposing a thorough process that includes data preparation, labeling, data modeling, and model validation. Therefore, we present a novel solution for mobility pattern detection that relies upon unfolding the trajectory in time and observing their inherent geometry.

Gabriel Spadon, Jay Kumar, Derek Eden et al.

This paper addresses the challenge of boosting the precision of multi-path long-term vessel trajectory forecasting on engineered sequences of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data using feature fusion for problem shifting. We have developed a deep auto-encoder model and a phased framework approach to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. To this end, we fuse the spatiotemporal features from the AIS messages with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data referring to potential routes and destinations. As a result, we reduce the forecasting uncertainty by shifting the problem into a trajectory reconstruction problem. The probabilistic features have an F1-Score of approximately 85% and 75% for the vessel route and destination prediction, respectively. Under such circumstances, we achieved an R2 Score of over 98% with different layer structures and varying feature combinations; the high R2 Score is a natural outcome of the well-defined shipping lanes in the study region. However, our proposal stands out among competing approaches as it demonstrates the capability of complex decision-making during turnings and route selection. Furthermore, we have shown that our model achieves more accurate forecasting with average and median errors of 11km and 6km, respectively, a 25% improvement from the current state-of-the-art approaches. The resulting model from this proposal is deployed as part of a broader Decision Support System to safeguard whales by preventing the risk of vessel-whale collisions under the smartWhales initiative and acting on the Gulf of St. Lawrence in Atlantic Canada.

Emanuele Carlini, Domenico Di Gangi, Vinicius Monteiro de Lira et al.

Seaports play a crucial role in the global economy, and researchers have sought to understand their significance through various studies. In this paper, we aim to explore the common characteristics shared by important ports by analyzing the network of connections formed by vessel movement among them. To accomplish this task, we adopt a bottom-up network construction approach that combines three years' worth of AIS (Automatic Identification System) data from around the world, constructing a Ports Network that represents the connections between different ports. Through this representation, we utilize machine learning to assess the relative significance of various port features. Our model examined such features and revealed that geographical characteristics and the port's depth are indicators of a port's importance to the Ports Network. Accordingly, this study employs a data-driven approach and utilizes machine learning to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to the extent of ports. Our work aims to inform decision-making processes related to port development, resource allocation, and infrastructure planning within the industry.

Gabriel Spadon, Vaishnav Vaidheeswaran, Claudio DiBacco

Marine invasive species spread through global shipping and generate substantial ecological and economic impacts. Traditional risk assessments require detailed records of ballast water and traffic patterns, which are often incomplete, limiting global coverage. This work advances a theoretical framework that quantifies invasion risk by combining environmental similarity across ports with observed and forecasted maritime mobility. Climate-based feature representations characterize each port's marine conditions, while mobility networks derived from Automatic Identification System data capture vessel flows and potential transfer pathways. Clustering and metric learning reveal climate analogues and enable the estimation of species survival likelihood along shipping routes. A temporal link prediction model captures how traffic patterns may change under shifting environmental conditions. The resulting fusion of environmental similarity and predicted mobility provides exposure estimates at the port and voyage levels, supporting targeted monitoring, routing adjustments, and management interventions.

Gabriel Spadon, Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Ruixin Song, Gabriel Spadon, Ronald Pelot et al.

Aquatic non-indigenous species (NIS) pose significant threats to biodiversity, disrupting ecosystems and inflicting substantial economic damages across agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Due to the fast growth of global trade and transportation networks, NIS has been introduced and spread unintentionally in new environments. This study develops a new physics-informed model to forecast maritime shipping traffic between port regions worldwide. The predicted information provided by these models, in turn, is used as input for risk assessment of NIS spread through transportation networks to evaluate the capability of our solution. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% binary accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of NIS risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing international vessel traffic flow in a changing global landscape.

Md Mahbub Alam, Amilcar Soares, José F. Rodrigues-Jr et al.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is crucial for navigational safety, route optimization, traffic management, search and rescue operations, and autonomous navigation. Traditional data-driven models lack real-world physical constraints, leading to forecasts that disobey vessel motion dynamics, such as in scenarios with limited or noisy data where sudden course changes or speed variations occur due to external factors. To address this limitation, we propose a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) approach for trajectory prediction that integrates a streamlined kinematic model for vessel motion into the neural network training process via a first- and second-order, finite difference physics-based loss function. This loss function, discretized using the first-order forward Euler method, Heun's second-order approximation, and refined with a midpoint approximation based on Taylor series expansion, enforces fidelity to fundamental physical principles by penalizing deviations from expected kinematic behavior. We evaluated PINN using real-world AIS datasets that cover diverse maritime conditions and compared it with state-of-the-art models. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces average displacement errors by up to 32% across models and datasets while maintaining physical consistency. These results enhance model reliability and adherence to mission-critical maritime activities, where precision translates into better situational awareness in the oceans.

Gabriel Spadon, Oladapo Oyebode, Camilo M. Botero et al.

This paper presents an overview of a human-centered initiative aimed at strengthening climate resilience along Nova Scotia's Eastern Shore. This region, a collection of rural villages with deep ties to the sea, faces existential threats from climate change that endanger its way of life. Our project moves beyond a purely technical response, weaving together expertise from Computer Science, Industrial Engineering, and Coastal Geography to co-create tools with the community. By integrating generational knowledge of residents, particularly elders, through the Eastern Shore Citizen Science Coastal Monitoring Network, this project aims to collaborate in building a living digital archive. This effort is hosted under Dalhousie University's Transforming Climate Action (TCA) initiative, specifically through its Transformative Adaptations to Social-Ecological Climate Change Trajectories (TranSECT) and TCA Artificial Intelligence (TCA-AI) projects. This work is driven by a collaboration model in which student teams work directly with residents. We present a detailed project timeline and a replicable model for how technology can support traditional communities, enabling them to navigate climate transformation more effectively.

Vaishnav Vaidheeswaran, Dilith Jayakody, Samruddhi Mulay et al.

Routing vessels through narrow and dynamic waterways is challenging due to changing environmental conditions and operational constraints. Existing vessel-routing studies typically fail to generalize across multiple origin-destination pairs and do not exploit large-scale, data-driven traffic graphs. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning solution for big maritime data that can learn to find a route across multiple origin-destination pairs while adapting to different hexagonal grid resolutions. Agents learn to select direction and speed under continuous observations in a multi-discrete action space. A reward function balances fuel efficiency, travel time, wind resistance, and route diversity, using an Automatic Identification System (AIS)-derived traffic graph with ERA5 wind fields. The approach is demonstrated in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, one of the largest estuaries in the world. We evaluate configurations that combine Proximal Policy Optimization with recurrent networks, invalid-action masking, and exploration strategies. Our experiments demonstrate that action masking yields a clear improvement in policy performance and that supplementing penalty-only feedback with positive shaping rewards produces additional gains.

Md Mahbub Alam, Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr, Gabriel Spadon

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for enhancing situational awareness and preventing collisions. Still, existing data-driven models are constrained mainly to single-vessel forecasting, overlooking vessel interactions, navigation rules, and explicit collision risk assessment. We present a transformer-based framework for multi-vessel trajectory prediction with integrated collision risk analysis. For a given target vessel, the framework identifies nearby vessels. It jointly predicts their future trajectories through parallel streams encoding kinematic and derived physical features, causal convolutions for temporal locality, spatial transformations for positional encoding, and hybrid positional embeddings that capture both local motion patterns and long-range dependencies. Evaluated on large-scale real-world AIS data using joint multi-vessel metrics, the model demonstrates superior forecasting capabilities beyond traditional single-vessel displacement errors. By simulating interactions among predicted trajectories, the framework further quantifies potential collision risks, offering actionable insights to strengthen maritime safety and decision support.

Gabriel Spadon, Martha D. Ferreira, Amilcar Soares et al.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Bruno Brandoli, Gabriel Spadon, Travis Esau et al.

Pesticide application has been heavily used in the cultivation of major crops, contributing to the increase of crop production over the past decades. However, their appropriate use and calibration of machines rely upon evaluation methodologies that can precisely estimate how well the pesticides' spraying covered the crops. A few strategies have been proposed in former works, yet their elevated costs and low portability do not permit their wide adoption. This work introduces and experimentally assesses a novel tool that functions over a smartphone-based mobile application, named DropLeaf - Spraying Meter. Tests performed using DropLeaf demonstrated that, notwithstanding its versatility, it can estimate the pesticide spraying with high precision. Our methodology is based on image analysis, and the assessment of spraying deposition measures is performed successfully over real and synthetic water-sensitive papers. The proposed tool can be extensively used by farmers and agronomists furnished with regular smartphones, improving the utilization of pesticides with well-being, ecological, and monetary advantages. DropLeaf can be easily used for spray drift assessment of different methods, including emerging UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) sprayers.

Gabriel Spadon, Shenda Hong, Bruno Brandoli et al.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Jose F Rodrigues-Jr, Gabriel Spadon, Bruno Brandoli et al.

Automated medical prognosis has gained interest as artificial intelligence evolves and the potential for computer-aided medicine becomes evident. Nevertheless, it is challenging to design an effective system that, given a patient's medical history, is able to predict probable future conditions. Previous works, mostly carried out over private datasets, have tackled the problem by using artificial neural network architectures that cannot deal with low-cardinality datasets, or by means of non-generalizable inference approaches. We introduce a Deep Learning architecture whose design results from an intensive experimental process. The final architecture is based on two parallel Minimal Gated Recurrent Unit networks working in bi-directional manner, which was extensively tested with the open-access Mimic-III dataset. Our results demonstrate significant improvements in automated medical prognosis, as measured with Recall@k. We summarize our experience as a set of relevant insights for the design of Deep Learning architectures. Our work improves the performance of computer-aided medicine and can serve as a guide in designing artificial neural networks used in prediction tasks.

Gabriel Spadon, Andre C. P. L. F. de Carvalho, Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr et al.

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

Bruno B. Machado, Gabriel Spadon, Mauro S. Arruda et al.

The need for higher agricultural productivity has demanded the intensive use of pesticides. However, their correct use depends on assessment methods that can accurately predict how well the pesticides' spraying covered the intended crop region. Some methods have been proposed in the literature, but their high cost and low portability harm their widespread use. This paper proposes and experimentally evaluates a new methodology based on the use of a smartphone-based mobile application, named DropLeaf. Experiments performed using DropLeaf showed that, in addition to its versatility, it can predict with high accuracy the pesticide spraying. DropLeaf is a five-fold image-processing methodology based on: (i) color space conversion, (ii) threshold noise removal, (iii) convolutional operations of dilation and erosion, (iv) detection of contour markers in the water-sensitive card, and, (v) identification of droplets via the marker-controlled watershed transformation. The authors performed successful experiments over two case studies, the first using a set of synthetic cards and the second using a real-world crop. The proposed tool can be broadly used by farmers equipped with conventional mobile phones, improving the use of pesticides with health, environmental and financial benefits.