Marco Pavone

Yan Wang, Wenjie Luo, Junjie Bai et al. · nvidia

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Kevin Lin, Christopher Agia, Toki Migimatsu et al. · microsoft-research, stanford

We propose Text2Motion, a language-based planning framework enabling robots to solve sequential manipulation tasks that require long-horizon reasoning. Given a natural language instruction, our framework constructs both a task- and motion-level plan that is verified to reach inferred symbolic goals. Text2Motion uses feasibility heuristics encoded in Q-functions of a library of skills to guide task planning with Large Language Models. Whereas previous language-based planners only consider the feasibility of individual skills, Text2Motion actively resolves geometric dependencies spanning skill sequences by performing geometric feasibility planning during its search. We evaluate our method on a suite of problems that require long-horizon reasoning, interpretation of abstract goals, and handling of partial affordance perception. Our experiments show that Text2Motion can solve these challenging problems with a success rate of 82%, while prior state-of-the-art language-based planning methods only achieve 13%. Text2Motion thus provides promising generalization characteristics to semantically diverse sequential manipulation tasks with geometric dependencies between skills.

Danfei Xu, Yuxiao Chen, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Simulation is the key to scaling up validation and verification for robotic systems such as autonomous vehicles. Despite advances in high-fidelity physics and sensor simulation, a critical gap remains in simulating realistic behaviors of road users. This is because, unlike simulating physics and graphics, devising first principle models for human-like behaviors is generally infeasible. In this work, we take a data-driven approach and propose a method that can learn to generate traffic behaviors from real-world driving logs. The method achieves high sample efficiency and behavior diversity by exploiting the bi-level hierarchy of driving behaviors by decoupling the traffic simulation problem into high-level intent inference and low-level driving behavior imitation. The method also incorporates a planning module to obtain stable long-horizon behaviors. We empirically validate our method, named Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulation (BITS), with scenarios from two large-scale driving datasets and show that BITS achieves balanced traffic simulation performance in realism, diversity, and long-horizon stability. We also explore ways to evaluate behavior realism and introduce a suite of evaluation metrics for traffic simulation. Finally, as part of our core contributions, we develop and open source a software tool that unifies data formats across different driving datasets and converts scenes from existing datasets into interactive simulation environments. For additional information and videos, see https://sites.google.com/view/nvr-bits2022/home

Katie Z Luo, Xinshuo Weng, Yan Wang et al.

Autonomous driving has traditionally relied heavily on costly and labor-intensive High Definition (HD) maps, hindering scalability. In contrast, Standard Definition (SD) maps are more affordable and have worldwide coverage, offering a scalable alternative. In this work, we systematically explore the effect of SD maps for real-time lane-topology understanding. We propose a novel framework to integrate SD maps into online map prediction and propose a Transformer-based encoder, SD Map Encoder Representations from transFormers, to leverage priors in SD maps for the lane-topology prediction task. This enhancement consistently and significantly boosts (by up to 60%) lane detection and topology prediction on current state-of-the-art online map prediction methods without bells and whistles and can be immediately incorporated into any Transformer-based lane-topology method. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/SMERF.

Spencer M. Richards, Navid Azizan, Jean-Jacques Slotine et al. · mit

Real-time adaptation is imperative to the control of robots operating in complex, dynamic environments. Adaptive control laws can endow even nonlinear systems with good trajectory tracking performance, provided that any uncertain dynamics terms are linearly parameterizable with known nonlinear features. However, it is often difficult to specify such features a priori, such as for aerodynamic disturbances on rotorcraft or interaction forces between a manipulator arm and various objects. In this paper, we turn to data-driven modeling with neural networks to learn, offline from past data, an adaptive controller with an internal parametric model of these nonlinear features. Our key insight is that we can better prepare the controller for deployment with control-oriented meta-learning of features in closed-loop simulation, rather than regression-oriented meta-learning of features to fit input-output data. Specifically, we meta-learn the adaptive controller with closed-loop tracking simulation as the base-learner and the average tracking error as the meta-objective. With both fully-actuated and underactuated nonlinear planar rotorcraft subject to wind, we demonstrate that our adaptive controller outperforms other controllers trained with regression-oriented meta-learning when deployed in closed-loop for trajectory tracking control.

Boris Ivanovic, Guanyu Song, Igor Gilitschenski et al.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Robin Brown, Edward Schmerling, Navid Azizan et al. · mit

Verifying that input-output relationships of a neural network conform to prescribed operational specifications is a key enabler towards deploying these networks in safety-critical applications. Semidefinite programming (SDP)-based approaches to Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) network verification transcribe this problem into an optimization problem, where the accuracy of any such formulation reflects the level of fidelity in how the neural network computation is represented, as well as the relaxations of intractable constraints. While the literature contains much progress on improving the tightness of SDP formulations while maintaining tractability, comparatively little work has been devoted to the other extreme, i.e., how to most accurately capture the original verification problem before SDP relaxation. In this work, we develop an exact, convex formulation of verification as a completely positive program (CPP), and provide analysis showing that our formulation is minimal -- the removal of any constraint fundamentally misrepresents the neural network computation. We leverage our formulation to provide a unifying view of existing approaches, and give insight into the source of large relaxation gaps observed in some cases.

Spencer M. Richards, Jean-Jacques Slotine, Navid Azizan et al. · mit

Even for known nonlinear dynamical systems, feedback controller synthesis is a difficult problem that often requires leveraging the particular structure of the dynamics to induce a stable closed-loop system. For general nonlinear models, including those fit to data, there may not be enough known structure to reliably synthesize a stabilizing feedback controller. In this paper, we discuss a state-dependent nonlinear tracking controller formulation based on a state-dependent Riccati equation for general nonlinear control-affine systems. This formulation depends on a nonlinear factorization of the system of vector fields defining the control-affine dynamics, which always exists under mild smoothness assumptions. We propose a method for learning this factorization from a finite set of data. On a variety of simulated nonlinear dynamical systems, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of learned versions of this controller in stable trajectory tracking. Alongside our learning method, we evaluate recent ideas in jointly learning a controller and stabilizability certificate for known dynamical systems; we show experimentally that such methods can be frail in comparison.

Mahmoud Selim, Amr Alanwar, Shreyas Kousik et al. · gatech

Reinforcement learning (RL) is capable of sophisticated motion planning and control for robots in uncertain environments. However, state-of-the-art deep RL approaches typically lack safety guarantees, especially when the robot and environment models are unknown. To justify widespread deployment, robots must respect safety constraints without sacrificing performance. Thus, we propose a Black-box Reachability-based Safety Layer (BRSL) with three main components: (1) data-driven reachability analysis for a black-box robot model, (2) a trajectory rollout planner that predicts future actions and observations using an ensemble of neural networks trained online, and (3) a differentiable polytope collision check between the reachable set and obstacles that enables correcting unsafe actions. In simulation, BRSL outperforms other state-of-the-art safe RL methods on a Turtlebot 3, a quadrotor, a trajectory-tracking point mass, and a hexarotor in wind with an unsafe set adjacent to the area of highest reward.

Fan-Yun Sun, Jonathan Tremblay, Valts Blukis et al. · microsoft-research, mit

We propose Filtering Inversion (FINV), a learning framework and optimization process that predicts a renderable 3D object representation from one or few partial views. FINV addresses the challenge of synthesizing novel views of objects from partial observations, spanning cases where the object is not entirely in view, is partially occluded, or is only observed from similar views. To achieve this, FINV learns shape priors by training a 3D generative model. At inference, given one or more views of a novel real-world object, FINV first finds a set of latent codes for the object by inverting the generative model from multiple initial seeds. Maintaining the set of latent codes, FINV filters and resamples them after receiving each new observation, akin to particle filtering. The generator is then finetuned for each latent code on the available views in order to adapt to novel objects. We show that FINV successfully synthesizes novel views of real-world objects (e.g., chairs, tables, and cars), even if the generative prior is trained only on synthetic objects. The ability to address the sim-to-real problem allows FINV to be used for object categories without real-world datasets. FINV achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple real-world datasets, recovers object shape and texture from partial and sparse views, is robust to occlusion, and is able to incrementally improve its representation with more observations.

Tim Salzmann, Elia Kaufmann, Jon Arrizabalaga et al.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has become a popular framework in embedded control for high-performance autonomous systems. However, to achieve good control performance using MPC, an accurate dynamics model is key. To maintain real-time operation, the dynamics models used on embedded systems have been limited to simple first-principle models, which substantially limits their representative power. In contrast to such simple models, machine learning approaches, specifically neural networks, have been shown to accurately model even complex dynamic effects, but their large computational complexity hindered combination with fast real-time iteration loops. With this work, we present Real-time Neural MPC, a framework to efficiently integrate large, complex neural network architectures as dynamics models within a model-predictive control pipeline. Our experiments, performed in simulation and the real world onboard a highly agile quadrotor platform, demonstrate the capabilities of the described system to run learned models with, previously infeasible, large modeling capacity using gradient-based online optimization MPC. Compared to prior implementations of neural networks in online optimization MPC we can leverage models of over 4000 times larger parametric capacity in a 50Hz real-time window on an embedded platform. Further, we show the feasibility of our framework on real-world problems by reducing the positional tracking error by up to 82% when compared to state-of-the-art MPC approaches without neural network dynamics.

Somrita Banerjee, Apoorva Sharma, Edward Schmerling et al.

As input distributions evolve over a mission lifetime, maintaining performance of learning-based models becomes challenging. This paper presents a framework to incrementally retrain a model by selecting a subset of test inputs to label, which allows the model to adapt to changing input distributions. Algorithms within this framework are evaluated based on (1) model performance throughout mission lifetime and (2) cumulative costs associated with labeling and model retraining. We provide an open-source benchmark of a satellite pose estimation model trained on images of a satellite in space and deployed in novel scenarios (e.g., different backgrounds or misbehaving pixels), where algorithms are evaluated on their ability to maintain high performance by retraining on a subset of inputs. We also propose a novel algorithm to select a diverse subset of inputs for labeling, by characterizing the information gain from an input using Bayesian uncertainty quantification and choosing a subset that maximizes collective information gain using concepts from batch active learning. We show that our algorithm outperforms others on the benchmark, e.g., achieves comparable performance to an algorithm that labels 100% of inputs, while only labeling 50% of inputs, resulting in low costs and high performance over the mission lifetime.

Jiawei Yang, Marco Pavone, Yue Wang

Novel view synthesis with sparse inputs is a challenging problem for neural radiance fields (NeRF). Recent efforts alleviate this challenge by introducing external supervision, such as pre-trained models and extra depth signals, and by non-trivial patch-based rendering. In this paper, we present Frequency regularized NeRF (FreeNeRF), a surprisingly simple baseline that outperforms previous methods with minimal modifications to the plain NeRF. We analyze the key challenges in few-shot neural rendering and find that frequency plays an important role in NeRF's training. Based on the analysis, we propose two regularization terms. One is to regularize the frequency range of NeRF's inputs, while the other is to penalize the near-camera density fields. Both techniques are ``free lunches'' at no additional computational cost. We demonstrate that even with one line of code change, the original NeRF can achieve similar performance as other complicated methods in the few-shot setting. FreeNeRF achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse datasets, including Blender, DTU, and LLFF. We hope this simple baseline will motivate a rethinking of the fundamental role of frequency in NeRF's training under the low-data regime and beyond.

Ziyuan Zhong, Davis Rempe, Danfei Xu et al.

Controllable and realistic traffic simulation is critical for developing and verifying autonomous vehicles. Typical heuristic-based traffic models offer flexible control to make vehicles follow specific trajectories and traffic rules. On the other hand, data-driven approaches generate realistic and human-like behaviors, improving transfer from simulated to real-world traffic. However, to the best of our knowledge, no traffic model offers both controllability and realism. In this work, we develop a conditional diffusion model for controllable traffic generation (CTG) that allows users to control desired properties of trajectories at test time (e.g., reach a goal or follow a speed limit) while maintaining realism and physical feasibility through enforced dynamics. The key technical idea is to leverage recent advances from diffusion modeling and differentiable logic to guide generated trajectories to meet rules defined using signal temporal logic (STL). We further extend guidance to multi-agent settings and enable interaction-based rules like collision avoidance. CTG is extensively evaluated on the nuScenes dataset for diverse and composite rules, demonstrating improvement over strong baselines in terms of the controllability-realism tradeoff.

Ziyuan Zhong, Davis Rempe, Yuxiao Chen et al.

Realistic and controllable traffic simulation is a core capability that is necessary to accelerate autonomous vehicle (AV) development. However, current approaches for controlling learning-based traffic models require significant domain expertise and are difficult for practitioners to use. To remedy this, we present CTG++, a scene-level conditional diffusion model that can be guided by language instructions. Developing this requires tackling two challenges: the need for a realistic and controllable traffic model backbone, and an effective method to interface with a traffic model using language. To address these challenges, we first propose a scene-level diffusion model equipped with a spatio-temporal transformer backbone, which generates realistic and controllable traffic. We then harness a large language model (LLM) to convert a user's query into a loss function, guiding the diffusion model towards query-compliant generation. Through comprehensive evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in generating realistic, query-compliant traffic simulations.

Yulong Cao, Chaowei Xiao, Anima Anandkumar et al.

Trajectory prediction is essential for autonomous vehicles (AVs) to plan correct and safe driving behaviors. While many prior works aim to achieve higher prediction accuracy, few study the adversarial robustness of their methods. To bridge this gap, we propose to study the adversarial robustness of data-driven trajectory prediction systems. We devise an optimization-based adversarial attack framework that leverages a carefully-designed differentiable dynamic model to generate realistic adversarial trajectories. Empirically, we benchmark the adversarial robustness of state-of-the-art prediction models and show that our attack increases the prediction error for both general metrics and planning-aware metrics by more than 50% and 37%. We also show that our attack can lead an AV to drive off road or collide into other vehicles in simulation. Finally, we demonstrate how to mitigate the adversarial attacks using an adversarial training scheme.

Lukas Schroth, Daniel Morton, Amon Lahr et al.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has established itself as the primary methodology for constrained control, enabling autonomy across diverse applications. While model fidelity is crucial in MPC, solving the corresponding optimization problem in real time remains challenging when combining long horizons with high-fidelity models that capture both short-term dynamics and long-term behavior. Motivated by results on the Exponential Decay of Sensitivities (EDS), which imply that, under certain conditions, the influence of modeling inaccuracies decreases exponentially along the prediction horizon, this paper proposes a multi-timescale MPC scheme for fast-sampled control. Tailored to systems with both fast and slow dynamics, the proposed approach improves computational efficiency by i) switching to a reduced model that captures only the slow, dominant dynamics and ii) exponentially increasing integration step sizes to progressively reduce model detail along the horizon. We evaluate the method on three practically motivated robotic control problems in simulation and observe speed-ups of up to an order of magnitude.

Yuxiao Chen, Boris Ivanovic, Marco Pavone

Trajectory prediction is a critical functionality of autonomous systems that share environments with uncontrolled agents, one prominent example being self-driving vehicles. Currently, most prediction methods do not enforce scene consistency, i.e., there are a substantial amount of self-collisions between predicted trajectories of different agents in the scene. Moreover, many approaches generate individual trajectory predictions per agent instead of joint trajectory predictions of the whole scene, which makes downstream planning difficult. In this work, we present ScePT, a policy planning-based trajectory prediction model that generates accurate, scene-consistent trajectory predictions suitable for autonomous system motion planning. It explicitly enforces scene consistency and learns an agent interaction policy that can be used for conditional prediction. Experiments on multiple real-world pedestrians and autonomous vehicle datasets show that ScePT} matches current state-of-the-art prediction accuracy with significantly improved scene consistency. We also demonstrate ScePT's ability to work with a downstream contingency planner.

Ramon Iglesias, Federico Rossi, Rick Zhang et al.

In this paper we present a queueing network approach to the problem of routing and rebalancing a fleet of self-driving vehicles providing on-demand mobility within a capacitated road network. We refer to such systems as autonomous mobility-on-demand systems, or AMoD. We first cast an AMoD system into a closed, multi-class BCMP queueing network model. Second, we present analysis tools that allow the characterization of performance metrics for a given routing policy, in terms, e.g., of vehicle availabilities, and first and second order moments of vehicle throughput. Third, we propose a scalable method for the synthesis of routing policies, with performance guarantees in the limit of large fleet sizes. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on a case study of New York City. Collectively, this paper provides a unifying framework for the analysis and control of AMoD systems, which subsumes earlier Jackson and network flow models, provides a quite large set of modeling options (e.g., the inclusion of road capacities and general travel time distributions), and allows the analysis of second and higher-order moments for the performance metrics.

Peter Karkus, Boris Ivanovic, Shie Mannor et al.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks are typically built in a modular fashion, with explicit components performing detection, tracking, prediction, planning, control, etc. While modularity improves reusability, interpretability, and generalizability, it also suffers from compounding errors, information bottlenecks, and integration challenges. To overcome these challenges, a prominent approach is to convert the AV stack into an end-to-end neural network and train it with data. While such approaches have achieved impressive results, they typically lack interpretability and reusability, and they eschew principled analytical components, such as planning and control, in favor of deep neural networks. To enable the joint optimization of AV stacks while retaining modularity, we present DiffStack, a differentiable and modular stack for prediction, planning, and control. Crucially, our model-based planning and control algorithms leverage recent advancements in differentiable optimization to produce gradients, enabling optimization of upstream components, such as prediction, via backpropagation through planning and control. Our results on the nuScenes dataset indicate that end-to-end training with DiffStack yields substantial improvements in open-loop and closed-loop planning metrics by, e.g., learning to make fewer prediction errors that would affect planning. Beyond these immediate benefits, DiffStack opens up new opportunities for fully data-driven yet modular and interpretable AV architectures. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/diffstack

Shuhan Tan, Boris Ivanovic, Xinshuo Weng et al.

Simulation forms the backbone of modern self-driving development. Simulators help develop, test, and improve driving systems without putting humans, vehicles, or their environment at risk. However, simulators face a major challenge: They rely on realistic, scalable, yet interesting content. While recent advances in rendering and scene reconstruction make great strides in creating static scene assets, modeling their layout, dynamics, and behaviors remains challenging. In this work, we turn to language as a source of supervision for dynamic traffic scene generation. Our model, LCTGen, combines a large language model with a transformer-based decoder architecture that selects likely map locations from a dataset of maps, and produces an initial traffic distribution, as well as the dynamics of each vehicle. LCTGen outperforms prior work in both unconditional and conditional traffic scene generation in terms of realism and fidelity. Code and video will be available at https://ariostgx.github.io/lctgen.

Matthew Tsao, Ramon Iglesias, Marco Pavone

This paper presents a stochastic, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that leverages short-term probabilistic forecasts for dispatching and rebalancing Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems (AMoD, i.e. fleets of self-driving vehicles). We first present the core stochastic optimization problem in terms of a time-expanded network flow model. Then, to ameliorate its tractability, we present two key relaxations. First, we replace the original stochastic problem with a Sample Average Approximation (SAA), and characterize the performance guarantees. Second, we separate the controller into two separate parts to address the task of assigning vehicles to the outstanding customers separate from that of rebalancing. This enables the problem to be solved as two totally unimodular linear programs, and thus easily scalable to large problem sizes. Finally, we test the proposed algorithm in two scenarios based on real data and show that it outperforms prior state-of-the-art algorithms. In particular, in a simulation using customer data from DiDi Chuxing, the algorithm presented here exhibits a 62.3 percent reduction in customer waiting time compared to state of the art non-stochastic algorithms.

Yulong Cao, Danfei Xu, Xinshuo Weng et al.

Trajectory prediction using deep neural networks (DNNs) is an essential component of autonomous driving (AD) systems. However, these methods are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, leading to serious consequences such as collisions. In this work, we identify two key ingredients to defend trajectory prediction models against adversarial attacks including (1) designing effective adversarial training methods and (2) adding domain-specific data augmentation to mitigate the performance degradation on clean data. We demonstrate that our method is able to improve the performance by 46% on adversarial data and at the cost of only 3% performance degradation on clean data, compared to the model trained with clean data. Additionally, compared to existing robust methods, our method can improve performance by 21% on adversarial examples and 9% on clean data. Our robust model is evaluated with a planner to study its downstream impacts. We demonstrate that our model can significantly reduce the severe accident rates (e.g., collisions and off-road driving).

Heng Yang, Marco Pavone

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Jiawei Yang, Boris Ivanovic, Or Litany et al.

We present EmerNeRF, a simple yet powerful approach for learning spatial-temporal representations of dynamic driving scenes. Grounded in neural fields, EmerNeRF simultaneously captures scene geometry, appearance, motion, and semantics via self-bootstrapping. EmerNeRF hinges upon two core components: First, it stratifies scenes into static and dynamic fields. This decomposition emerges purely from self-supervision, enabling our model to learn from general, in-the-wild data sources. Second, EmerNeRF parameterizes an induced flow field from the dynamic field and uses this flow field to further aggregate multi-frame features, amplifying the rendering precision of dynamic objects. Coupling these three fields (static, dynamic, and flow) enables EmerNeRF to represent highly-dynamic scenes self-sufficiently, without relying on ground truth object annotations or pre-trained models for dynamic object segmentation or optical flow estimation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in sensor simulation, significantly outperforming previous methods when reconstructing static (+2.93 PSNR) and dynamic (+3.70 PSNR) scenes. In addition, to bolster EmerNeRF's semantic generalization, we lift 2D visual foundation model features into 4D space-time and address a general positional bias in modern Transformers, significantly boosting 3D perception performance (e.g., 37.50% relative improvement in occupancy prediction accuracy on average). Finally, we construct a diverse and challenging 120-sequence dataset to benchmark neural fields under extreme and highly-dynamic settings.

Rohan Sinha, Apoorva Sharma, Somrita Banerjee et al.

When testing conditions differ from those represented in training data, so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs can mar the reliability of learned components in the modern robot autonomy stack. Therefore, coping with OOD data is an important challenge on the path towards trustworthy learning-enabled open-world autonomy. In this paper, we aim to demystify the topic of OOD data and its associated challenges in the context of data-driven robotic systems, drawing connections to emerging paradigms in the ML community that study the effect of OOD data on learned models in isolation. We argue that as roboticists, we should reason about the overall \textit{system-level} competence of a robot as it operates in OOD conditions. We highlight key research questions around this system-level view of OOD problems to guide future research toward safe and reliable learning-enabled autonomy.

Boris Ivanovic, James Harrison, Marco Pavone

Learning-based behavior prediction methods are increasingly being deployed in real-world autonomous systems, e.g., in fleets of self-driving vehicles, which are beginning to commercially operate in major cities across the world. Despite their advancements, however, the vast majority of prediction systems are specialized to a set of well-explored geographic regions or operational design domains, complicating deployment to additional cities, countries, or continents. Towards this end, we present a novel method for efficiently adapting behavior prediction models to new environments. Our approach leverages recent advances in meta-learning, specifically Bayesian regression, to augment existing behavior prediction models with an adaptive layer that enables efficient domain transfer via offline fine-tuning, online adaptation, or both. Experiments across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our method can efficiently adapt to a variety of unseen environments.

Tim Salzmann, Marco Pavone, Markus Ryll

Autonomous systems and humans are increasingly sharing the same space. Robots work side by side or even hand in hand with humans to balance each other's limitations. Such cooperative interactions are ever more sophisticated. Thus, the ability to reason not just about a human's center of gravity position, but also its granular motion is an important prerequisite for human-robot interaction. Though, many algorithms ignore the multimodal nature of humans or neglect uncertainty in their motion forecasts. We present Motron, a multimodal, probabilistic, graph-structured model, that captures human's multimodality using probabilistic methods while being able to output deterministic maximum-likelihood motions and corresponding confidence values for each mode. Our model aims to be tightly integrated with the robotic planning-control-interaction loop; outputting physically feasible human motions and being computationally efficient. We demonstrate the performance of our model on several challenging real-world motion forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of generative/variational methods while providing state-of-the-art single-output motions if required. Both using significantly less computational power than state-of-the art algorithms.

Tobias Enders, James Harrison, Marco Pavone et al.

We consider the sequential decision-making problem of making proactive request assignment and rejection decisions for a profit-maximizing operator of an autonomous mobility on demand system. We formalize this problem as a Markov decision process and propose a novel combination of multi-agent Soft Actor-Critic and weighted bipartite matching to obtain an anticipative control policy. Thereby, we factorize the operator's otherwise intractable action space, but still obtain a globally coordinated decision. Experiments based on real-world taxi data show that our method outperforms state of the art benchmarks with respect to performance, stability, and computational tractability.

Rick Zhang, Marco Pavone

This paper presents a queueing network approach to the analysis and control of mobility-on-demand (MoD) systems for urban personal transportation. A MoD system consists of a fleet of vehicles providing one-way car sharing service and a team of drivers to rebalance such vehicles. The drivers then rebalance themselves by driving select customers similar to a taxi service. We model the MoD system as two coupled closed Jackson networks with passenger loss. We show that the system can be approximately balanced by solving two decoupled linear programs and exactly balanced through nonlinear optimization. The rebalancing techniques are applied to a system sizing example using taxi data in three neighborhoods of Manhattan, which suggests that the optimal vehicle-to-driver ratio in a MoD system is between 3 and 5. Lastly, we formulate a real-time closed-loop rebalancing policy for drivers and demonstrate its stability (in terms of customer wait times) for typical system loads.

Rachel Luo, Rohan Sinha, Yixiao Sun et al.

When deploying modern machine learning-enabled robotic systems in high-stakes applications, detecting distribution shift is critical. However, most existing methods for detecting distribution shift are not well-suited to robotics settings, where data often arrives in a streaming fashion and may be very high-dimensional. In this work, we present an online method for detecting distribution shift with guarantees on the false positive rate - i.e., when there is no distribution shift, our system is very unlikely (with probability $< ε$) to falsely issue an alert; any alerts that are issued should therefore be heeded. Our method is specifically designed for efficient detection even with high dimensional data, and it empirically achieves up to 11x faster detection on realistic robotics settings compared to prior work while maintaining a low false negative rate in practice (whenever there is a distribution shift in our experiments, our method indeed emits an alert). We demonstrate our approach in both simulation and hardware for a visual servoing task, and show that our method indeed issues an alert before a failure occurs.

Sumeet Singh, Yin-Lam Chow, Anirudha Majumdar et al.

In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the cumulative cost as the objective function to be minimized. This framework is axiomatically justified in terms of time-consistency of risk assessments, is amenable to dynamic optimization, and is unifying in the sense that it captures a full range of risk preferences from risk-neutral (i.e., expectation) to worst case. Within this framework, we propose and analyze an online risk-sensitive MPC algorithm that is provably stabilizing. Furthermore, by exploiting the dual representation of time-consistent, dynamic risk measures, we cast the computation of the MPC control law as a convex optimization problem amenable to real-time implementation. Simulation results are presented and discussed.

Yulu Gan, Ligeng Zhu, Dandan Shan et al.

Motion understanding is fundamental to physical reasoning, enabling models to infer dynamics and predict future states. However, state-of-the-art models still struggle on recent motion benchmarks, primarily due to the scarcity of large-scale, fine-grained motion datasets. Existing motion datasets are often constructed from costly manual annotation, severely limiting scalability. To address this challenge, we introduce FoundationMotion, a fully automated data curation pipeline that constructs large-scale motion datasets. Our approach first detects and tracks objects in videos to extract their trajectories, then leverages these trajectories and video frames with Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate fine-grained captions and diverse question-answer pairs about motion and spatial reasoning. Using datasets produced by this pipeline, we fine-tune open-source models including NVILA-Video-15B and Qwen2.5-7B, achieving substantial improvements in motion understanding without compromising performance on other tasks. Notably, our models outperform strong closed-source baselines like Gemini-2.5 Flash and large open-source models such as Qwen2.5-VL-72B across diverse motion understanding datasets and benchmarks. FoundationMotion thus provides a scalable solution for curating fine-grained motion datasets that enable effective fine-tuning of diverse models to enhance motion understanding and spatial reasoning capabilities.

Ziyu Chen, Jiawei Yang, Jiahui Huang et al.

We introduce OmniRe, a comprehensive system for efficiently creating high-fidelity digital twins of dynamic real-world scenes from on-device logs. Recent methods using neural fields or Gaussian Splatting primarily focus on vehicles, hindering a holistic framework for all dynamic foregrounds demanded by downstream applications, e.g., the simulation of human behavior. OmniRe extends beyond vehicle modeling to enable accurate, full-length reconstruction of diverse dynamic objects in urban scenes. Our approach builds scene graphs on 3DGS and constructs multiple Gaussian representations in canonical spaces that model various dynamic actors, including vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and others. OmniRe allows holistically reconstructing any dynamic object in the scene, enabling advanced simulations (~60Hz) that include human-participated scenarios, such as pedestrian behavior simulation and human-vehicle interaction. This comprehensive simulation capability is unmatched by existing methods. Extensive evaluations on the Waymo dataset show that our approach outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods quantitatively and qualitatively by a large margin. We further extend our results to 5 additional popular driving datasets to demonstrate its generalizability on common urban scenes.

Filippos Christianos, Peter Karkus, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Reasoning with occluded traffic agents is a significant open challenge for planning for autonomous vehicles. Recent deep learning models have shown impressive results for predicting occluded agents based on the behaviour of nearby visible agents; however, as we show in experiments, these models are difficult to integrate into downstream planning. To this end, we propose Bi-level Variational Occlusion Models (BiVO), a two-step generative model that first predicts likely locations of occluded agents, and then generates likely trajectories for the occluded agents. In contrast to existing methods, BiVO outputs a trajectory distribution which can then be sampled from and integrated into standard downstream planning. We evaluate the method in closed-loop replay simulation using the real-world nuScenes dataset. Our results suggest that BiVO can successfully learn to predict occluded agent trajectories, and these predictions lead to better subsequent motion plans in critical scenarios.

Jiageng Mao, Junjie Ye, Yuxi Qian et al.

Human-level driving is an ultimate goal of autonomous driving. Conventional approaches formulate autonomous driving as a perception-prediction-planning framework, yet their systems do not capitalize on the inherent reasoning ability and experiential knowledge of humans. In this paper, we propose a fundamental paradigm shift from current pipelines, exploiting Large Language Models (LLMs) as a cognitive agent to integrate human-like intelligence into autonomous driving systems. Our approach, termed Agent-Driver, transforms the traditional autonomous driving pipeline by introducing a versatile tool library accessible via function calls, a cognitive memory of common sense and experiential knowledge for decision-making, and a reasoning engine capable of chain-of-thought reasoning, task planning, motion planning, and self-reflection. Powered by LLMs, our Agent-Driver is endowed with intuitive common sense and robust reasoning capabilities, thus enabling a more nuanced, human-like approach to autonomous driving. We evaluate our approach on the large-scale nuScenes benchmark, and extensive experiments substantiate that our Agent-Driver significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art driving methods by a large margin. Our approach also demonstrates superior interpretability and few-shot learning ability to these methods.

Tarun Gupta, Peter Karkus, Tong Che et al.

Effectively exploring the environment is a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). We address this challenge by defining a novel intrinsic reward based on a foundation model, such as contrastive language image pretraining (CLIP), which can encode a wealth of domain-independent semantic visual-language knowledge about the world. Specifically, our intrinsic reward is defined based on pre-trained CLIP embeddings without any fine-tuning or learning on the target RL task. We demonstrate that CLIP-based intrinsic rewards can drive exploration towards semantically meaningful states and outperform state-of-the-art methods in challenging sparse-reward procedurally-generated environments.

Ruixiang Zhang, Tong Che, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Humans are remarkably good at understanding and reasoning about complex visual scenes. The capability to decompose low-level observations into discrete objects allows us to build a grounded abstract representation and identify the compositional structure of the world. Accordingly, it is a crucial step for machine learning models to be capable of inferring objects and their properties from visual scenes without explicit supervision. However, existing works on object-centric representation learning either rely on tailor-made neural network modules or strong probabilistic assumptions in the underlying generative and inference processes. In this work, we present \ours, a conceptually simple and general approach to learning object-centric representations through an energy-based model. By forming a permutation-invariant energy function using vanilla attention blocks readily available in Transformers, we can infer object-centric latent variables via gradient-based MCMC methods where permutation equivariance is automatically guaranteed. We show that \ours can be easily integrated into existing architectures and can effectively extract high-quality object-centric representations, leading to better segmentation accuracy and competitive downstream task performance. Further, empirical evaluations show that \ours's learned representations are robust against distribution shift. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of \ours in systematic compositional generalization, by re-composing learned energy functions for novel scene generation and manipulation.

Ran Tian, Boyi Li, Xinshuo Weng et al.

The autonomous driving industry is increasingly adopting end-to-end learning from sensory inputs to minimize human biases in system design. Traditional end-to-end driving models, however, suffer from long-tail events due to rare or unseen inputs within their training distributions. To address this, we propose TOKEN, a novel Multi-Modal Large Language Model (MM-LLM) that tokenizes the world into object-level knowledge, enabling better utilization of LLM's reasoning capabilities to enhance autonomous vehicle planning in long-tail scenarios. TOKEN effectively alleviates data scarcity and inefficient tokenization by leveraging a traditional end-to-end driving model to produce condensed and semantically enriched representations of the scene, which are optimized for LLM planning compatibility through deliberate representation and reasoning alignment training stages. Our results demonstrate that TOKEN excels in grounding, reasoning, and planning capabilities, outperforming existing frameworks with a 27% reduction in trajectory L2 error and a 39% decrease in collision rates in long-tail scenarios. Additionally, our work highlights the importance of representation alignment and structured reasoning in sparking the common-sense reasoning capabilities of MM-LLMs for effective planning.

Sushant Veer, Apoorva Sharma, Marco Pavone

Trajectory prediction modules are key enablers for safe and efficient planning of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in highly interactive traffic scenarios. Recently, learning-based trajectory predictors have experienced considerable success in providing state-of-the-art performance due to their ability to learn multimodal behaviors of other agents from data. In this paper, we present an algorithm called multi-predictor fusion (MPF) that augments the performance of learning-based predictors by imbuing them with motion planners that are tasked with satisfying logic-based rules. MPF probabilistically combines learning- and rule-based predictors by mixing trajectories from both standalone predictors in accordance with a belief distribution that reflects the online performance of each predictor. In our results, we show that MPF outperforms the two standalone predictors on various metrics and delivers the most consistent performance.

Rohan Sinha, James Harrison, Spencer M. Richards et al.

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems commonly model the nonlinear effects of an unknown environment on a nominal system. We optimize over a class of nonlinear feedback policies inspired by certainty equivalent "estimate-and-cancel" control laws pioneered in classical adaptive control to achieve significant performance improvements in the presence of uncertainties of large magnitude, a setting in which existing learning-based predictive control algorithms often struggle to guarantee safety. In contrast to previous work in robust adaptive MPC, our approach allows us to take advantage of structure (i.e., the numerical predictions) in the a priori unknown dynamics learned online through function approximation. Our approach also extends typical nonlinear adaptive control methods to systems with state and input constraints even when we cannot directly cancel the additive uncertain function from the dynamics. We apply contemporary statistical estimation techniques to certify the system's safety through persistent constraint satisfaction with high probability. Moreover, we propose using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms that learn calibrated model priors to help satisfy the assumptions of the control design in challenging settings. Finally, we show in simulation that our method can accommodate more significant unknown dynamics terms than existing methods and that the use of Bayesian meta-learning allows us to adapt to the test environments more rapidly.

Federico Rossi, Marco Pavone

In this paper we study the inherent trade-off between time and communication complexity for the distributed consensus problem. In our model, communication complexity is measured as the maximum data throughput (in bits per second) sent through the network at a given instant. Such a notion of communication complexity, referred to as bandwidth complexity, is related to the frequency bandwidth a designer should collectively allocate to the agents if they were to communicate via a wireless channel, which represents an important constraint for dense robotic networks. We prove a lower bound on the bandwidth complexity of the consensus problem and provide a consensus algorithm that is bandwidth-optimal for a wide class of consensus functions. We then propose a distributed algorithm that can trade communication complexity versus time complexity as a function of a tunable parameter, which can be adjusted by a system designer as a function of the properties of the wireless communication channel. We rigorously characterize the tunable algorithm's worst-case bandwidth complexity and show that it compares favorably with the bandwidth complexity of well-known consensus algorithm.

Rohan Sinha, Amine Elhafsi, Christopher Agia et al.

Foundation models, e.g., large language models (LLMs), trained on internet-scale data possess zero-shot generalization capabilities that make them a promising technology towards detecting and mitigating out-of-distribution failure modes of robotic systems. Fully realizing this promise, however, poses two challenges: (i) mitigating the considerable computational expense of these models such that they may be applied online, and (ii) incorporating their judgement regarding potential anomalies into a safe control framework. In this work, we present a two-stage reasoning framework: First is a fast binary anomaly classifier that analyzes observations in an LLM embedding space, which may then trigger a slower fallback selection stage that utilizes the reasoning capabilities of generative LLMs. These stages correspond to branch points in a model predictive control strategy that maintains the joint feasibility of continuing along various fallback plans to account for the slow reasoner's latency as soon as an anomaly is detected, thus ensuring safety. We show that our fast anomaly classifier outperforms autoregressive reasoning with state-of-the-art GPT models, even when instantiated with relatively small language models. This enables our runtime monitor to improve the trustworthiness of dynamic robotic systems, such as quadrotors or autonomous vehicles, under resource and time constraints. Videos illustrating our approach in both simulation and real-world experiments are available on this project page: https://sites.google.com/view/aesop-llm.

Thomas Lew, Riccardo Bonalli, Marco Pavone

We study the convex hulls of reachable sets of nonlinear systems with bounded disturbances and uncertain initial conditions. Reachable sets play a critical role in control, but remain notoriously challenging to compute, and existing over-approximation tools tend to be conservative or computationally expensive. In this work, we characterize the convex hulls of reachable sets as the convex hulls of solutions of an ordinary differential equation with initial conditions on the sphere. This finite-dimensional characterization unlocks an efficient sampling-based estimation algorithm to accurately over-approximate reachable sets. We also study the structure of the boundary of the reachable convex hulls and derive error bounds for the estimation algorithm. We give applications to neural feedback loop analysis and robust MPC.

Robert Dyro, Edward Schmerling, Nikos Arechiga et al.

In this work we derive a second-order approach to bilevel optimization, a type of mathematical programming in which the solution to a parameterized optimization problem (the "lower" problem) is itself to be optimized (in the "upper" problem) as a function of the parameters. Many existing approaches to bilevel optimization employ first-order sensitivity analysis, based on the implicit function theorem (IFT), for the lower problem to derive a gradient of the lower problem solution with respect to its parameters; this IFT gradient is then used in a first-order optimization method for the upper problem. This paper extends this sensitivity analysis to provide second-order derivative information of the lower problem (which we call the IFT Hessian), enabling the usage of faster-converging second-order optimization methods at the upper level. Our analysis shows that (i) much of the computation already used to produce the IFT gradient can be reused for the IFT Hessian, (ii) errors bounds derived for the IFT gradient readily apply to the IFT Hessian, (iii) computing IFT Hessians can significantly reduce overall computation by extracting more information from each lower level solve. We corroborate our findings and demonstrate the broad range of applications of our method by applying it to problem instances of least squares hyperparameter auto-tuning, multi-class SVM auto-tuning, and inverse optimal control.

Shuhan Tan, Boris Ivanovic, Yuxiao Chen et al.

Simulation stands as a cornerstone for safe and efficient autonomous driving development. At its core a simulation system ought to produce realistic, reactive, and controllable traffic patterns. In this paper, we propose ProSim, a multimodal promptable closed-loop traffic simulation framework. ProSim allows the user to give a complex set of numerical, categorical or textual prompts to instruct each agent's behavior and intention. ProSim then rolls out a traffic scenario in a closed-loop manner, modeling each agent's interaction with other traffic participants. Our experiments show that ProSim achieves high prompt controllability given different user prompts, while reaching competitive performance on the Waymo Sim Agents Challenge when no prompt is given. To support research on promptable traffic simulation, we create ProSim-Instruct-520k, a multimodal prompt-scenario paired driving dataset with over 10M text prompts for over 520k real-world driving scenarios. We will release code of ProSim as well as data and labeling tools of ProSim-Instruct-520k at https://ariostgx.github.io/ProSim.

Yuxiao Chen, Sushant Veer, Peter Karkus et al.

In highly interactive driving scenarios, the actions of one agent greatly influences those of its neighbors. Planning safe motions for autonomous vehicles in such interactive environments, therefore, requires reasoning about the impact of the ego's intended motion plan on nearby agents' behavior. Deep-learning-based models have recently achieved great success in trajectory prediction and many models in the literature allow for ego-conditioned prediction. However, leveraging ego-conditioned prediction remains challenging in downstream planning due to the complex nature of neural networks, limiting the planner structure to simple ones, e.g., sampling-based planner. Despite their ability to generate fine-grained high-quality motion plans, it is difficult for gradient-based planning algorithms, such as model predictive control (MPC), to leverage ego-conditioned prediction due to their iterative nature and need for gradient. We present Interactive Joint Planning (IJP) that bridges MPC with learned prediction models in a computationally scalable manner to provide us the best of both the worlds. In particular, IJP jointly optimizes over the behavior of the ego and the surrounding agents and leverages deep-learned prediction models as prediction priors that the join trajectory optimization tries to stay close to. Furthermore, by leveraging homotopy classes, our joint optimizer searches over diverse motion plans to avoid getting stuck at local minima. Closed-loop simulation result shows that IJP significantly outperforms the baselines that are either without joint optimization or running sampling-based planning.

Xunjiang Gu, Guanyu Song, Igor Gilitschenski et al.

Understanding road geometry is a critical component of the autonomous vehicle (AV) stack. While high-definition (HD) maps can readily provide such information, they suffer from high labeling and maintenance costs. Accordingly, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data. The vast majority of recent approaches encode multi-camera observations into an intermediate representation, e.g., a bird's eye view (BEV) grid, and produce vector map elements via a decoder. While this architecture is performant, it decimates much of the information encoded in the intermediate representation, preventing downstream tasks (e.g., behavior prediction) from leveraging them. In this work, we propose exposing the rich internal features of online map estimation methods and show how they enable more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that directly accessing internal BEV features yields up to 73% faster inference speeds and up to 29% more accurate predictions on the real-world nuScenes dataset.

Yuxiao Chen, Sander Tonkens, Marco Pavone

Adept traffic models are critical to both planning and closed-loop simulation for autonomous vehicles (AV), and key design objectives include accuracy, diverse multimodal behaviors, interpretability, and downstream compatibility. Recently, with the advent of large language models (LLMs), an additional desirable feature for traffic models is LLM compatibility. We present Categorical Traffic Transformer (CTT), a traffic model that outputs both continuous trajectory predictions and tokenized categorical predictions (lane modes, homotopies, etc.). The most outstanding feature of CTT is its fully interpretable latent space, which enables direct supervision of the latent variable from the ground truth during training and avoids mode collapse completely. As a result, CTT can generate diverse behaviors conditioned on different latent modes with semantic meanings while beating SOTA on prediction accuracy. In addition, CTT's ability to input and output tokens enables integration with LLMs for common-sense reasoning and zero-shot generalization.

Shuhan Tan, Kashyap Chitta, Yuxiao Chen et al.

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for autonomous driving explore inference-time reasoning as a way to improve driving performance and safety in challenging scenarios. Most prior work uses natural language to express chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning before producing driving actions. However, text may not be the most efficient representation for reasoning. In this work, we present Latent-CoT-Drive (LCDrive): a model that expresses CoT in a latent language that captures possible outcomes of the driving actions being considered. Our approach unifies CoT reasoning and decision making by representing both in an action-aligned latent space. Instead of natural language, the model reasons by interleaving (1) action-proposal tokens, which use the same vocabulary as the model's output actions; and (2) world model tokens, which are grounded in a learned latent world model and express future outcomes of these actions. We cold start latent CoT by supervising the model's action proposals and world model tokens based on ground-truth future rollouts of the scene. We then post-train with closed-loop reinforcement learning to strengthen reasoning capabilities. On a large-scale end-to-end driving benchmark, LCDrive achieves faster inference, better trajectory quality, and larger improvements from interactive reinforcement learning compared to both non-reasoning and text-reasoning baselines.