Manuel Pulido

Francisco Vargas, Alejandro González Coene, Gaston Escalante et al.

The extraction of information about traffic accidents from legal documents is crucial for quantifying insurance company costs. Extracting entities such as percentages of physical and/or psychological disability and the involved compensation amounts is a challenging process, even for experts, due to the subtle arguments and reasoning in the court decision. A two-step procedure is proposed: first, segmenting the document identifying the most relevant segments, and then extracting the entities. For text segmentation, two methodologies are compared: a classic method based on regular expressions and a second approach that divides the document into blocks of n-tokens, which are then vectorized using multilingual models for semantic searches (text-embedding-ada-002/MiniLM-L12-v2 ). Subsequently, large language models (LLaMA-2 7b, 70b, LLaMA-3 8b, and GPT-4 Turbo) are applied with prompting to the selected segments for entity extraction. For the LLaMA models, fine-tuning is performed using LoRA. LLaMA-2 7b, even with zero temperature, shows a significant number of hallucinations in extractions which are an important contention point for named entity extraction. This work shows that these hallucinations are substantially reduced after finetuning the model. The performance of the methodology based on segment vectorization and subsequent use of LLMs significantly surpasses the classic method which achieves an accuracy of 39.5%. Among open-source models, LLaMA-2 70B with finetuning achieves the highest accuracy 79.4%, surpassing its base version 61.7%. Notably, the base LLaMA-3 8B model already performs comparably to the finetuned LLaMA-2 70B model, achieving 76.6%, highlighting the rapid progress in model development. Meanwhile, GPT-4 Turbo achieves the highest accuracy at 86.1%.

Maximiliano A. Sacco, Manuel Pulido, Juan J. Ruiz et al.

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on multiple model integrations. However, this approach is demanding in terms of computations and development. In this work a machine learning method is presented based on convolutional neural networks that estimates the state-dependent forecast uncertainty represented by the forecast error covariance matrix using a single dynamical model integration. This is achieved by the use of a loss function that takes into account the fact that the forecast errors are heterodastic. The performance of this approach is examined within a hybrid data assimilation method that combines a Kalman-like analysis update and the machine learning based estimation of a state-dependent forecast error covariance matrix. Observing system simulation experiments are conducted using the Lorenz'96 model as a proof-of-concept. The promising results show that the machine learning method is able to predict precise values of the forecast covariance matrix in relatively high-dimensional states. Moreover, the hybrid data assimilation method shows similar performance to the ensemble Kalman filter outperforming it when the ensembles are relatively small.

Maximiliano A. Sacco, Juan J. Ruiz, Manuel Pulido et al.

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture and quantify different sources of uncertainty, particularly those associated with model errors. In this work we perform toy-model and state-of-the-art model experiments to analyze to what extent artificial neural networks (ANNs) are able to model the different sources of uncertainty present in a forecast. In particular those associated with the accuracy of the initial conditions and those introduced by the model error. We also compare different training strategies: one based on a direct training using the mean and spread of an ensemble forecast as target, the other ones rely on an indirect training strategy using an analyzed state as target in which the uncertainty is implicitly learned from the data. Experiments using the Lorenz'96 model show that the ANNs are able to emulate some of the properties of ensemble forecasts like the filtering of the most unpredictable modes and a state-dependent quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Moreover, ANNs provide a reliable estimation of the forecast uncertainty in the presence of model error. Preliminary experiments conducted with a state-of-the-art forecasting system also confirm the ability of ANNs to produce a reliable quantification of the forecast uncertainty.

Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Michael DeCaria, Nachiketa Chakaborty et al.

Many frameworks exist to infer cause and effect relations in complex nonlinear systems but a complete theory is lacking. A new framework is presented that is fully nonlinear, provides a complete information theoretic disentanglement of causal processes, allows for nonlinear interactions between causes, identifies the causal strength of missing or unknown processes, and can analyze systems that cannot be represented on Directed Acyclic Graphs. The basic building blocks are information theoretic measures such as (conditional) mutual information and a new concept called certainty that monotonically increases with the information available about the target process. The framework is presented in detail and compared with other existing frameworks, and the treatment of confounders is discussed. While there are systems with structures that the framework cannot disentangle, it is argued that any causal framework that is based on integrated quantities will miss out potentially important information of the underlying probability density functions. The framework is tested on several highly simplified stochastic processes to demonstrate how blocking and gateways are handled, and on the chaotic Lorentz 1963 system. We show that the framework provides information on the local dynamics, but also reveals information on the larger scale structure of the underlying attractor. Furthermore, by applying it to real observations related to the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation system we demonstrate its power and advantage over other methodologies.

Manuel Pulido, Peter Jan vanLeeuwen, Derek J. Posselt

Recently, some works have suggested methods to combine variational probabilistic inference with Monte Carlo sampling. One promising approach is via local optimal transport. In this approach, a gradient steepest descent method based on local optimal transport principles is formulated to transform deterministically point samples from an intermediate density to a posterior density. The local mappings that transform the intermediate densities are embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). This variational mapping method requires the evaluation of the log-posterior density gradient and therefore the adjoint of the observational operator. In this work, we evaluate nonlinear observational mappings in the variational mapping method using two approximations that avoid the adjoint, an ensemble based approximation in which the gradient is approximated by the particle covariances in the state and observational spaces the so-called ensemble space and an RKHS approximation in which the observational mapping is embedded in an RKHS and the gradient is derived there. The approximations are evaluated for highly nonlinear observational operators and in a low-dimensional chaotic dynamical system. The RKHS approximation is shown to be highly successful and superior to the ensemble approximation.

Manuel Pulido, Peter Jan vanLeeuwen

In this work, a novel sequential Monte Carlo filter is introduced which aims at efficient sampling of high-dimensional state spaces with a limited number of particles. Particles are pushed forward from the prior to the posterior density using a sequence of mappings that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the posterior and the sequence of intermediate densities. The sequence of mappings represents a gradient flow. A key ingredient of the mappings is that they are embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, which allows for a practical and efficient algorithm. The embedding provides a direct means to calculate the gradient of the Kullback-Leibler divergence leading to quick convergence using well-known gradient-based stochastic optimization algorithms. Evaluation of the method is conducted in the chaotic Lorenz-63 system, the Lorenz-96 system, which is a coarse prototype of atmospheric dynamics, and an epidemic model that describes cholera dynamics. No resampling is required in the mapping particle filter even for long recursive sequences. The number of effective particles remains close to the total number of particles in all the experiments.