Navid Ebrahimi

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Vinayak Kaushal et al.

Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) assume fixed activity durations and therefore cannot adequately represent dynamic project uncertainty. This study presents a Bayesian-Monte Carlo probabilistic schedule updating framework for construction digital twin environments. The proposed methodology integrates stochastic activity-duration modeling, Bayesian recursive updating, Monte Carlo simulation, and uncertainty propagation within a unified computational framework for adaptive schedule forecasting. Activity durations are modeled using lognormal probability distributions and continuously updated through Bayesian inference as new project observations become available. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to propagate updated uncertainty throughout project networks and generate probabilistic completion-time forecasts, delay-risk estimates, and activity criticality measures. Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches. The framework further supports adaptive project forecasting through integration of BIM reports, drone observations, IoT telemetry, productivity logs, and site monitoring data.

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Navid Ebrahimi

Persistent cost and schedule deviations remain a major challenge in the U.S. construction industry, revealing the limitations of deterministic CPM and static document-based estimating. This study presents an integrated 4D/5D digital-twin framework that couples Building Information Modeling (BIM) with natural-language processing (NLP)-based cost mapping, computer-vision (CV)-driven progress measurement, Bayesian probabilistic CPM updating, and deep-reinforcement-learning (DRL) resource-leveling. A nine-month case implementation on a Dallas-Fort Worth mid-rise project demonstrated measurable gains in accuracy and efficiency: 43% reduction in estimating labor, 6% reduction in overtime, and 30% project-buffer utilization, while maintaining an on-time finish at 128 days within P50-P80 confidence bounds. The digital-twin sandbox also enabled real-time "what-if" forecasting and traceable cost-schedule alignment through a 5D knowledge graph. Findings confirm that integrating AI-based analytics with probabilistic CPM and DRL enhances forecasting precision, transparency, and control resilience. The validated workflow establishes a practical pathway toward predictive, adaptive, and auditable construction management.

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Navid Ebrahimi et al.

This paper introduces Lean 5.0, a human-centric evolution of Lean-Digital integration that connects predictive analytics, AI collaboration, and continuous learning within Industry 5.0 and Construction 5.0 contexts. A systematic literature review (2019-2024) and a 12-week empirical validation study demonstrate measurable performance gains, including a 13% increase in Plan Percent Complete (PPC), 22% reduction in rework, and 42% improvement in forecast accuracy. The study adopts a mixed-method Design Science Research (DSR) approach aligned with PRISMA 2020 guidelines. The paper also examines integration with digital twin and blockchain technologies to improve traceability, auditability, and lifecycle transparency. Despite limitations related to sample size, single-case design, and study duration, the findings show that Lean 5.0 provides a transformative paradigm connecting human cognition with predictive control in construction management.