Xiuqin Xu

Xiuqin Xu, Hanqiu Peng, Ying Chen

Modern time series data often display complex nonlinear dependencies along with irregular regime-switching behaviors. These features present technical challenges in modeling, inference, and in offering insightful understanding into the underlying stochastic phenomena. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel modeling framework known as the Deep Switching State Space Model (DS$^3$M). This framework is engineered to make accurate forecasts for such time series while adeptly identifying the irregular regimes hidden within the dynamics. These identifications not only have significant economic ramifications but also contribute to a deeper understanding of the underlying phenomena. In DS$^3$M, the architecture employs discrete latent variables to represent regimes and continuous latent variables to account for random driving factors. By melding a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with a nonlinear Switching State Space Model (SSSM), we manage to capture the nonlinear dependencies and irregular regime-switching behaviors, governed by a Markov chain and parameterized using multilayer perceptrons. We validate the effectiveness and regime identification capabilities of DS$^3$M through short- and long-term forecasting tests on a wide array of simulated and real-world datasets, spanning sectors such as healthcare, economics, traffic, meteorology, and energy. Experimental results reveal that DS$^3$M outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of forecasting accuracy, while providing meaningful regime identifications.

Xiuqin Xu, Ying Chen

Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to automatically detect the dependence of the future volatility on past returns, past volatilities and the stochastic noise, and thus provides a flexible volatility model without the need to manually select features. We develop a scalable inference and learning algorithm based on variational inference. In real data analysis, the DSVM outperforms several popular alternative volatility models. In addition, the predicted volatility of the DSVM provides a more reliable risk measure that can better reflex the risk in the financial market, reaching more quickly to a higher level when the market becomes more risky and to a lower level when the market is more stable, compared with the commonly used GARCH type model with a huge data set on the U.S. stock market.

Dacheng Chen, Dan Li, Xiuqin Xu et al.

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia affecting a large number of people around the world. If left undetected, it will develop into chronic disability or even early mortality. However, patients who have this problem can barely feel its presence, especially in its early stage. A non-invasive, automatic, and effective detection method is therefore needed to help early detection so that medical intervention can be implemented in time to prevent its progression. Electrocardiogram (ECG), which records the electrical activities of the heart, has been widely used for detecting the presence of AF. However, due to the subtle patterns of AF, the performance of detection models have largely depended on complicated data pre-processing and expertly engineered features. In our work, we developed DenseECG, an end-to-end model based on 5 layers 1D densely connected convolutional neural network. We trained our model using the publicly available dataset from 2017 PhysioNet Computing in Cardiology(CinC) Challenge containing 8528 single-lead ECG recordings of short-term heart rhythms (9-61s). Our trained model was able to outperform the other state-of-the-art AF detection models on this dataset without complicated data pre-processing and expert-supervised feature engineering.