Thomas Pouplin

Evgeny Saveliev, Tim Schubert, Thomas Pouplin et al.

Despite its significant promise and continuous technical advances, real-world applications of artificial intelligence (AI) remain limited. We attribute this to the "domain expert-AI-conundrum": while domain experts, such as clinician scientists, should be able to build predictive models such as risk scores, they face substantial barriers in accessing state-of-the-art (SOTA) tools. While automated machine learning (AutoML) has been proposed as a partner in clinical predictive modeling, many additional requirements need to be fulfilled to make machine learning accessible for clinician scientists. To address this gap, we introduce CliMB, a no-code AI-enabled partner designed to empower clinician scientists to create predictive models using natural language. CliMB guides clinician scientists through the entire medical data science pipeline, thus empowering them to create predictive models from real-world data in just one conversation. CliMB also creates structured reports and interpretable visuals. In evaluations involving clinician scientists and systematic comparisons against a baseline GPT-4, CliMB consistently demonstrated superior performance in key areas such as planning, error prevention, code execution, and model performance. Moreover, in blinded assessments involving 45 clinicians from diverse specialties and career stages, more than 80% preferred CliMB over GPT-4. Overall, by providing a no-code interface with clear guidance and access to SOTA methods in the fields of data-centric AI, AutoML, and interpretable ML, CliMB empowers clinician scientists to build robust predictive models. The proof-of-concept version of CliMB is available as open-source software on GitHub: https://github.com/vanderschaarlab/climb.

Thomas Pouplin, Hao Sun, Samuel Holt et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated the strong potential to assist both clinicians and the general public with their extensive medical knowledge. However, their application in healthcare is constrained due to concerns about the privacy of data used in training, which prevents the integration of private and personal information because of security and ethical issues. Moreover, if their capabilities can be enhanced with information retrieval to access up-to-date knowledge, the current integration of LLMs with Information retrieval lacks robustness to imperfect retrieval, which can hinder their effectiveness and even reduce overall performance. In this work, we address this challenge by introducing the Retrieval-Augmented Thought Process (RATP). Given access to external knowledge, RATP formulates the thought generation of LLMs as a multiple-step decision process. To optimise such a thought process, RATP leverages Monte-Carlo Tree Search and learns a proxy reward function that permits cost-efficient inference. On a private dataset of electronic medical records, deliberately excluded from any LLM training set, RATP achieves 35% additional accuracy compared to in-context retrieval-augmented generation for the question-answering task.

Samuel Holt, Max Ruiz Luyten, Thomas Pouplin et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly capable but often require significant guidance or extensive interaction history to perform effectively in complex, interactive environments. Existing methods may struggle with adapting to new information or efficiently utilizing past experiences for multi-step reasoning without fine-tuning. We introduce a novel LLM agent framework that enhances planning capabilities through in-context learning, facilitated by atomic fact augmentation and a recursive lookahead search. Our agent learns to extract task-critical ``atomic facts'' from its interaction trajectories. These facts dynamically augment the prompts provided to LLM-based components responsible for action proposal, latent world model simulation, and state-value estimation. Planning is performed via a depth-limited lookahead search, where the LLM simulates potential trajectories and evaluates their outcomes, guided by the accumulated facts and interaction history. This approach allows the agent to improve its understanding and decision-making online, leveraging its experience to refine its behavior without weight updates. We provide a theoretical motivation linking performance to the quality of fact-based abstraction and LLM simulation accuracy. Empirically, our agent demonstrates improved performance and adaptability on challenging interactive tasks, achieving more optimal behavior as it accumulates experience, showcased in tasks such as TextFrozenLake and ALFWorld.

Thomas Pouplin, Katarzyna Kobalczyk, Hao Sun et al.

Developing autonomous agents capable of performing complex, multi-step decision-making tasks specified in natural language remains a significant challenge, particularly in realistic settings where labeled data is scarce and real-time experimentation is impractical. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches often struggle to generalize to unseen goals and states, limiting their applicability. In this paper, we introduce TEDUO, a novel training pipeline for offline language-conditioned policy learning in symbolic environments. Unlike conventional methods, TEDUO operates on readily available, unlabeled datasets and addresses the challenge of generalization to previously unseen goals and states. Our approach harnesses large language models (LLMs) in a dual capacity: first, as automatization tools augmenting offline datasets with richer annotations, and second, as generalizable instruction-following agents. Empirical results demonstrate that TEDUO achieves data-efficient learning of robust language-conditioned policies, accomplishing tasks beyond the reach of conventional RL frameworks or out-of-the-box LLMs alone.

Thomas Pouplin, Alan Jeffares, Nabeel Seedat et al.

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability. This is an essential requirement in many real-world applications where simple point predictions' inability to convey the magnitude and frequency of errors renders them insufficient for high-stakes decisions. Quantile regression is a leading approach for obtaining such intervals via the empirical estimation of quantiles in the (non-parametric) distribution of outputs. This method is simple, computationally inexpensive, interpretable, assumption-free, and effective. However, it does require that the specific quantiles being learned are chosen a priori. This results in (a) intervals that are arbitrarily symmetric around the median which is sub-optimal for realistic skewed distributions, or (b) learning an excessive number of intervals. In this work, we propose Relaxed Quantile Regression (RQR), a direct alternative to quantile regression based interval construction that removes this arbitrary constraint whilst maintaining its strengths. We demonstrate that this added flexibility results in intervals with an improvement in desirable qualities (e.g. mean width) whilst retaining the essential coverage guarantees of quantile regression.