Shiyu Zhou

Chuanwen Feng, Wenlong Chen, Ao Ke et al.

When deploying a trained machine learning model in the real world, it is inevitable to receive inputs from out-of-distribution (OOD) sources. For instance, in continual learning settings, it is common to encounter OOD samples due to the non-stationarity of a domain. More generally, when we have access to a set of test inputs, the existing rich line of OOD detection solutions, especially the recent promise of distance-based methods, falls short in effectively utilizing the distribution information from training samples and test inputs. In this paper, we argue that empirical probability distributions that incorporate geometric information from both training samples and test inputs can be highly beneficial for OOD detection in the presence of test inputs available. To address this, we propose to model OOD detection as a discrete optimal transport problem. Within the framework of optimal transport, we propose a novel score function known as the \emph{conditional distribution entropy} to quantify the uncertainty of a test input being an OOD sample. Our proposal inherits the merits of certain distance-based methods while eliminating the reliance on distribution assumptions, a-prior knowledge, and specific training mechanisms. Extensive experiments conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms its competitors in OOD detection.

Salman Jahani, Shiyu Zhou, Dharmaraj Veeramani et al.

Prediction of events such as part replacement and failure events plays a critical role in reliability engineering. Event stream data are commonly observed in manufacturing and teleservice systems. Designing predictive models for individual units based on such event streams is challenging and an under-explored problem. In this work, we propose a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on the inhomogeneous Poisson processes with a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) prior on the intensity functions. The MGCP prior on the intensity functions of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes maps data from similar historical units to the current unit under study which facilitates sharing of information and allows for analysis of flexible event patterns. To facilitate inference, we derive a variational inference scheme for learning and estimation of parameters in the resulting MGCP modulated Poisson process model. Experimental results are shown on both synthetic data as well as real-world data for fleet based event prediction.

Raed Kontar, Garvesh Raskutti, Shiyu Zhou

Recently there has been an increasing interest in the multivariate Gaussian process (MGP) which extends the Gaussian process (GP) to deal with multiple outputs. One approach to construct the MGP and account for non-trivial commonalities amongst outputs employs a convolution process (CP). The CP is based on the idea of sharing latent functions across several convolutions. Despite the elegance of the CP construction, it provides new challenges that need yet to be tackled. First, even with a moderate number of outputs, model building is extremely prohibitive due to the huge increase in computational demands and number of parameters to be estimated. Second, the negative transfer of knowledge may occur when some outputs do not share commonalities. In this paper we address these issues. We propose a regularized pairwise modeling approach for the MGP established using CP. The key feature of our approach is to distribute the estimation of the full multivariate model into a group of bivariate GPs which are individually built. Interestingly pairwise modeling turns out to possess unique characteristics, which allows us to tackle the challenge of negative transfer through penalizing the latent function that facilitates information sharing in each bivariate model. Predictions are then made through combining predictions from the bivariate models within a Bayesian framework. The proposed method has excellent scalability when the number of outputs is large and minimizes the negative transfer of knowledge between uncorrelated outputs. Statistical guarantees for the proposed method are studied and its advantageous features are demonstrated through numerical studies.