Robert J. Thomas

Liyan Jia, Jinsub Kim, Robert J. Thomas et al.

The problem of characterizing impacts of data quality on real-time locational marginal price (LMP) is considered. Because the real-time LMP is computed from the estimated network topology and system state, bad data that cause errors in topology processing and state estimation affect real-time LMP. It is shown that the power system state space is partitioned into price regions of convex polytopes. Under different bad data models, the worst case impacts of bad data on real-time LMP are analyzed. Numerical simulations are used to illustrate worst case performance for IEEE-14 and IEEE-118 networks.

Yuting Ji, Robert J. Thomas, Lang Tong

The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability distribution of the real-time LMP/congestion is obtained. The proposed method incorporates load/generation forecast, time varying operation constraints, and contingency models. By shifting the computation cost associated with multiparametric programs offline, the online computation cost is significantly reduced. An online simulation technique by generating critical regions dynamically is also proposed, which results in several orders of magnitude improvement in the computational cost over standard Monte Carlo methods.

Wolfgang Ganglberger, Abigail A. Bucklin, Ryan A. Tesh et al.

Objective: Sleep related respiratory abnormalities are typically detected using polysomnography. There is a need in general medicine and critical care for a more convenient method to automatically detect sleep apnea from a simple, easy-to-wear device. The objective is to automatically detect abnormal respiration and estimate the Apnea-Hypopnea-Index (AHI) with a wearable respiratory device, compared to an SpO2 signal or polysomnography using a large (n = 412) dataset serving as ground truth. Methods: Simultaneously recorded polysomnographic (PSG) and wearable respiratory effort data were used to train and evaluate models in a cross-validation fashion. Time domain and complexity features were extracted, important features were identified, and a random forest model employed to detect events and predict AHI. Four models were trained: one each using the respiratory features only, a feature from the SpO2 (%)-signal only, and two additional models that use the respiratory features and the SpO2 (%)-feature, one allowing a time lag of 30 seconds between the two signals. Results: Event-based classification resulted in areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.94, 0.86, 0.82, and areas under the precision-recall curves of 0.48, 0.32, 0.51 for the models using respiration and SpO2, respiration-only, and SpO2-only respectively. Correlation between expert-labelled and predicted AHI was 0.96, 0.78, and 0.93, respectively. Conclusions: A wearable respiratory effort signal with or without SpO2 predicted AHI accurately. Given the large dataset and rigorous testing design, we expect our models are generalizable to evaluating respiration in a variety of environments, such as at home and in critical care.

Seyyed Hamid Elyas, Zhifang Wang, Robert J. Thomas

This paper investigates the problem of generation and load settings in a synthetic power grid modeling of high-voltage transmission network, considering both electrical parameters and topology measures. Our previous study indicated that the relative location of generation and load buses in a realistic grid are not random but correlated. And an entropy based optimization approach has been proposed to determine a set of correlated siting for generation and load buses in a synthetic grid modeling. Using the exponential distribution of individual generation capacity or load settings in a grid, and the non-trivial correlation between the generation capacity or load setting and the nodal degree of a generation or load bus we develop an approach to generate a statistically correct random set of generation capacities and load settings, and then assign them to each generation or load bus in a grid.

Jinsub Kim, Lang Tong, Robert J. Thomas

Data attacks on state estimation modify part of system measurements such that the tempered measurements cause incorrect system state estimates. Attack techniques proposed in the literature often require detailed knowledge of system parameters. Such information is difficult to acquire in practice. The subspace methods presented in this paper, on the other hand, learn the system operating subspace from measurements and launch attacks accordingly. Conditions for the existence of an unobservable subspace attack are obtained under the full and partial measurement models. Using the estimated system subspace, two attack strategies are presented. The first strategy aims to affect the system state directly by hiding the attack vector in the system subspace. The second strategy misleads the bad data detection mechanism so that data not under attack are removed. Performance of these attacks are evaluated using the IEEE 14-bus network and the IEEE 118-bus network.

Jinsub Kim, Lang Tong, Robert J. Thomas

A new mechanism aimed at misleading a power system control center about the source of a data attack is proposed. As a man-in-the-middle state attack, a data framing attack is proposed to exploit the bad data detection and identification mechanisms currently in use at most control centers. In particular, the proposed attack frames meters that are providing correct data as sources of bad data such that the control center will remove useful measurements that would otherwise be used by the state estimator. The optimal design of a data framing attack is formulated as a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP). It is shown that the proposed attack is capable of perturbing the power system state estimate by an arbitrary degree controlling only half of a critical set of measurements that are needed to make a system unobservable. Implications of this attack on power system operations are discussed, and the attack performance is evaluated using benchmark systems.