Yaniv Fogel

Meir Feder, Ruediger Urbanke, Yaniv Fogel

We introduce an information-theoretic framework that views learning as universal prediction under log loss, characterized through regret bounds. Central to the framework is an effective notion of architecture-based model complexity, defined by the probability mass or volume of models in the vicinity of the data-generating process, or its projection on the model class. This volume is related to spectral properties of the expected Hessian or the Fisher Information Matrix, leading to tractable approximations. We argue that successful architectures possess a broad complexity range, enabling learning in highly over-parameterized model classes. The framework sheds light on the role of inductive biases, the effectiveness of stochastic gradient descent, and phenomena such as flat minima. It unifies online, batch, supervised, and generative settings, and applies across the stochastic-realizable and agnostic regimes. Moreover, it provides insights into the success of modern machine-learning architectures, such as deep neural networks and transformers, suggesting that their broad complexity range naturally arises from their layered structure. These insights open the door to the design of alternative architectures with potentially comparable or even superior performance.

Yaniv Fogel, Tal Shapira, Meir Feder

The predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) approach has recently been proposed as the min-max optimal solution to the batch learning problem where both the training set and the test data feature are individuals, known sequences. This approach has yields a learnability measure that can also be interpreted as a stability measure. This measure has shown some potential in detecting out-of-distribution examples, yet it has considerable computational costs. In this project, we propose and analyze an approximation of the pNML, which is based on influence functions. Combining both theoretical analysis and experiments, we show that when applied to neural networks, this approximation can detect out-of-distribution examples effectively. We also compare its performance to that achieved by conducting a single gradient step for each possible label.

Koby Bibas, Yaniv Fogel, Meir Feder

Linear regression is a classical paradigm in statistics. A new look at it is provided via the lens of universal learning. In applying universal learning to linear regression the hypotheses class represents the label $y\in {\cal R}$ as a linear combination of the feature vector $x^Tθ$ where $x\in {\cal R}^M$, within a Gaussian error. The Predictive Normalized Maximum Likelihood (pNML) solution for universal learning of individual data can be expressed analytically in this case, as well as its associated learnability measure. Interestingly, the situation where the number of parameters $M$ may even be larger than the number of training samples $N$ can be examined. As expected, in this case learnability cannot be attained in every situation; nevertheless, if the test vector resides mostly in a subspace spanned by the eigenvectors associated with the large eigenvalues of the empirical correlation matrix of the training data, linear regression can generalize despite the fact that it uses an ``over-parametrized'' model. We demonstrate the results with a simulation of fitting a polynomial to data with a possibly large polynomial degree.

Koby Bibas, Yaniv Fogel, Meir Feder

The Predictive Normalized Maximum Likelihood (pNML) scheme has been recently suggested for universal learning in the individual setting, where both the training and test samples are individual data. The goal of universal learning is to compete with a ``genie'' or reference learner that knows the data values, but is restricted to use a learner from a given model class. The pNML minimizes the associated regret for any possible value of the unknown label. Furthermore, its min-max regret can serve as a pointwise measure of learnability for the specific training and data sample. In this work we examine the pNML and its associated learnability measure for the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model class. As shown, the pNML outperforms the commonly used Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) approach and provides robustness against adversarial attacks. Together with its learnability measure it can detect out of distribution test examples, be tolerant to noisy labels and serve as a confidence measure for the ERM. Finally, we extend the pNML to a ``twice universal'' solution, that provides universality for model class selection and generates a learner competing with the best one from all model classes.

Yaniv Fogel, Meir Feder

Universal supervised learning is considered from an information theoretic point of view following the universal prediction approach, see Merhav and Feder (1998). We consider the standard supervised "batch" learning where prediction is done on a test sample once the entire training data is observed, and the individual setting where the features and labels, both in the training and test, are specific individual quantities. The information theoretic approach naturally uses the self-information loss or log-loss. Our results provide universal learning schemes that compete with a "genie" (or reference) that knows the true test label. In particular, it is demonstrated that the main proposed scheme, termed Predictive Normalized Maximum Likelihood (pNML), is a robust learning solution that outperforms the current leading approach based on Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM). Furthermore, the pNML construction provides a pointwise indication for the learnability of the specific test challenge with the given training examples