Matthew Williams

Sarthak Pati, Ujjwal Baid, Brandon Edwards et al.

Although machine learning (ML) has shown promise in numerous domains, there are concerns about generalizability to out-of-sample data. This is currently addressed by centrally sharing ample, and importantly diverse, data from multiple sites. However, such centralization is challenging to scale (or even not feasible) due to various limitations. Federated ML (FL) provides an alternative to train accurate and generalizable ML models, by only sharing numerical model updates. Here we present findings from the largest FL study to-date, involving data from 71 healthcare institutions across 6 continents, to generate an automatic tumor boundary detector for the rare disease of glioblastoma, utilizing the largest dataset of such patients ever used in the literature (25,256 MRI scans from 6,314 patients). We demonstrate a 33% improvement over a publicly trained model to delineate the surgically targetable tumor, and 23% improvement over the tumor's entire extent. We anticipate our study to: 1) enable more studies in healthcare informed by large and diverse data, ensuring meaningful results for rare diseases and underrepresented populations, 2) facilitate further quantitative analyses for glioblastoma via performance optimization of our consensus model for eventual public release, and 3) demonstrate the effectiveness of FL at such scale and task complexity as a paradigm shift for multi-site collaborations, alleviating the need for data sharing.

Dekai Zhang, Francesca Toni, Matthew Williams

Recent research has shown the potential for neural networks to improve upon classical survival models such as the Cox model, which is widely used in clinical practice. Neural networks, however, typically rely on data that are centrally available, whereas healthcare data are frequently held in secure silos. We present a federated Cox model that accommodates this data setting and also relaxes the proportional hazards assumption, allowing time-varying covariate effects. In this latter respect, our model does not require explicit specification of the time-varying effects, reducing upfront organisational costs compared to previous works. We experiment with publicly available clinical datasets and demonstrate that the federated model is able to perform as well as a standard model.

Adam Dejl, Dekai Zhang, Hamed Ayoobi et al.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) often represent conflicts between features, arising naturally during training as the network learns to integrate diverse and potentially disagreeing inputs to better predict the target variable. Despite their relevance to the ``reasoning'' processes of these models, the properties and implications of conflicts for understanding and explaining ANNs remain underexplored. In this paper, we develop a rigorous theory of conflicts in ANNs and demonstrate their impact on ANN explainability through two case studies. In the first case study, we use our theory of conflicts to inspire the design of a novel feature attribution method, which we call Conflict-Aware Feature-wise Explanations (CAFE). CAFE separates the positive and negative influences of features and biases, enabling more faithful explanations for models applied to tabular data. In the second case study, we take preliminary steps towards understanding the role of conflicts in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. Through our experiments, we identify potentially useful connections between model conflicts and different kinds of distributional shifts in tabular and image data. Overall, our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for conflicts in the development of more reliable explanation methods for AI systems, which are crucial for the beneficial use of these systems in the society.

Adam Dejl, Matthew Williams, Francesca Toni

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general capabilities, but their deployment in high-stakes domains is hindered by their opacity and unpredictability. Recent work has taken meaningful steps towards addressing these issues by augmenting LLMs with post-hoc reasoning based on computational argumentation, providing faithful explanations and enabling users to contest incorrect decisions. However, this paradigm is limited to pre-defined binary choices and only supports local contestation for specific instances, leaving the underlying decision logic unchanged and prone to repeated mistakes. In this paper, we introduce ArgEval, a framework that shifts from instance-specific reasoning to structured evaluation of general decision options. Rather than mining arguments solely for individual cases, ArgEval systematically maps task-specific decision spaces, builds corresponding option ontologies, and constructs general argumentation frameworks (AFs) for each option. These frameworks can then be instantiated to provide explainable recommendations for specific cases while still supporting global contestability through modification of the shared AFs. We investigate the effectiveness of ArgEval on treatment recommendation for glioblastoma, an aggressive brain tumour, and show that it can produce explainable guidance aligned with clinical practice.

Adam Gould, Guilherme Paulino-Passos, Seema Dadhania et al.

In the pursuit of enhancing the efficacy and flexibility of interpretable, data-driven classification models, this work introduces a novel incorporation of user-defined preferences with Abstract Argumentation and Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). Specifically, we introduce Preference-Based Abstract Argumentation for Case-Based Reasoning (which we call AA-CBR-P), allowing users to define multiple approaches to compare cases with an ordering that specifies their preference over these comparison approaches. We prove that the model inherently follows these preferences when making predictions and show that previous abstract argumentation for case-based reasoning approaches are insufficient at expressing preferences over constituents of an argument. We then demonstrate how this can be applied to a real-world medical dataset sourced from a clinical trial evaluating differing assessment methods of patients with a primary brain tumour. We show empirically that our approach outperforms other interpretable machine learning models on this dataset.

Dekai Zhang, Matthew Williams, Francesca Toni

Neural networks (NNs) can learn to rely on spurious signals in the training data, leading to poor generalisation. Recent methods tackle this problem by training NNs with additional ground-truth annotations of such signals. These methods may, however, let spurious signals re-emerge in deep convolutional NNs (CNNs). We propose Targeted Activation Penalty (TAP), a new method tackling the same problem by penalising activations to control the re-emergence of spurious signals in deep CNNs, while also lowering training times and memory usage. In addition, ground-truth annotations can be expensive to obtain. We show that TAP still works well with annotations generated by pre-trained models as effective substitutes of ground-truth annotations. We demonstrate the power of TAP against two state-of-the-art baselines on the MNIST benchmark and on two clinical image datasets, using four different CNN architectures.

Jorge Cisneros, Timothy Wojan, Matthew Williams et al.

Public-use microdata samples (PUMS) from the United States (US) Census Bureau on individuals have been available for decades. However, large increases in computing power and the greater availability of Big Data have dramatically increased the probability of re-identifying anonymized data, potentially violating the pledge of confidentiality given to survey respondents. Data science tools can be used to produce synthetic data that preserve critical moments of the empirical data but do not contain the records of any existing individual respondent or business. Developing public-use firm data from surveys presents unique challenges different from demographic data, because there is a lack of anonymity and certain industries can be easily identified in each geographic area. This paper briefly describes a machine learning model used to construct a synthetic PUMS based on the Annual Business Survey (ABS) and discusses various quality metrics. Although the ABS PUMS is currently being refined and results are confidential, we present two synthetic PUMS developed for the 2007 Survey of Business Owners, similar to the ABS business data. Econometric replication of a high impact analysis published in Small Business Economics demonstrates the verisimilitude of the synthetic data to the true data and motivates discussion of possible ABS use cases.

Dekai Zhang, Matthew Williams, Francesca Toni

Federated learning (FL) is a widely used framework for machine learning in distributed data environments where clients hold data that cannot be easily centralised, such as for data protection reasons. FL, however, is known to be vulnerable to non-IID data. Clustered FL addresses this issue by finding more homogeneous clusters of clients. We propose a novel one-shot clustering method, EMD-CFL, using the Earth Mover's distance (EMD) between data distributions in embedding space. We theoretically motivate the use of EMDs using results from the domain adaptation literature and demonstrate empirically superior clustering performance in extensive comparisons against 16 baselines and on a range of challenging datasets.

Thomas Booth, Matthew Williams, Aysha Luis et al.

Aim: To review how machine learning (ML) is applied to imaging biomarkers in neuro-oncology, in particular for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response monitoring. Materials and Methods: The PubMed and MEDLINE databases were searched for articles published before September 2018 using relevant search terms. The search strategy focused on articles applying ML to high-grade glioma biomarkers for treatment response monitoring, prognosis, and prediction. Results: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is typically used throughout the patient pathway because routine structural imaging provides detailed anatomical and pathological information and advanced techniques provide additional physiological detail. Using carefully chosen image features, ML is frequently used to allow accurate classification in a variety of scenarios. Rather than being chosen by human selection, ML also enables image features to be identified by an algorithm. Much research is applied to determining molecular profiles, histological tumour grade, and prognosis using MRI images acquired at the time that patients first present with a brain tumour. Differentiating a treatment response from a post-treatment-related effect using imaging is clinically important and also an area of active study (described here in one of two Special Issue publications dedicated to the application of ML in glioma imaging). Conclusion: Although pioneering, most of the evidence is of a low level, having been obtained retrospectively and in single centres. Studies applying ML to build neuro-oncology monitoring biomarker models have yet to show an overall advantage over those using traditional statistical methods. Development and validation of ML models applied to neuro-oncology require large, well-annotated datasets, and therefore multidisciplinary and multi-centre collaborations are necessary.

Wafa Alorainy, Pete Burnap, Han Liu et al.

Offensive or antagonistic language targeted at individuals and social groups based on their personal characteristics (also known as cyber hate speech or cyberhate) has been frequently posted and widely circulated viathe World Wide Web. This can be considered as a key risk factor for individual and societal tension linked toregional instability. Automated Web-based cyberhate detection is important for observing and understandingcommunity and regional societal tension - especially in online social networks where posts can be rapidlyand widely viewed and disseminated. While previous work has involved using lexicons, bags-of-words orprobabilistic language parsing approaches, they often suffer from a similar issue which is that cyberhate can besubtle and indirect - thus depending on the occurrence of individual words or phrases can lead to a significantnumber of false negatives, providing inaccurate representation of the trends in cyberhate. This problemmotivated us to challenge thinking around the representation of subtle language use, such as references toperceived threats from "the other" including immigration or job prosperity in a hateful context. We propose anovel framework that utilises language use around the concept of "othering" and intergroup threat theory toidentify these subtleties and we implement a novel classification method using embedding learning to computesemantic distances between parts of speech considered to be part of an "othering" narrative. To validate ourapproach we conduct several experiments on different types of cyberhate, namely religion, disability, race andsexual orientation, with F-measure scores for classifying hateful instances obtained through applying ourmodel of 0.93, 0.86, 0.97 and 0.98 respectively, providing a significant improvement in classifier accuracy overthe state-of-the-art