Alexander Stepikin

Vladislav Zhuzhel, Vsevolod Grabar, Galina Boeva et al.

Event sequences often emerge in data mining. Modeling these sequences presents two main challenges: methodological and computational. Methodologically, event sequences are non-uniform and sparse, making traditional models unsuitable. Computationally, the vast amount of data and the significant length of each sequence necessitate complex and efficient models. Existing solutions, such as recurrent and transformer neural networks, rely on parametric intensity functions defined at each moment. These functions are either limited in their ability to represent complex event sequences or notably inefficient. We propose COTIC, a method based on an efficient convolution neural network designed to handle the non-uniform occurrence of events over time. Our paper introduces a continuous convolution layer, allowing a model to capture complex dependencies, including, e.g., the self-excitement effect, with little computational expense. COTIC outperforms existing models in predicting the next event time and type, achieving an average rank of 1.5 compared to 3.714 for the nearest competitor. Furthermore, COTIC`s ability to produce effective embeddings demonstrates its potential for various downstream tasks. Our code is open and available at: https://github.com/VladislavZh/COTIC.

Alexander Stepikin, Evgenia Romanenkova, Alexey Zaytsev

A change points detection aims to catch an abrupt disorder in data distribution. Common approaches assume that there are only two fixed distributions for data: one before and another after a change point. Real-world data are richer than this assumption. There can be multiple different distributions before and after a change. We propose an approach that works in the multiple-distributions scenario. Our approach learn representations for semi-structured data suitable for change point detection, while a common classifiers-based approach fails. Moreover, our model is more robust, when predicting change points. The datasets used for benchmarking are sequences of images with and without change points in them.

Alexandra Bazarova, Maria Kovaleva, Ilya Kuleshov et al.

In today's world, banks use artificial intelligence to optimize diverse business processes, aiming to improve customer experience. Most of the customer-related tasks can be categorized into two groups: 1) local ones, which focus on a client's current state, such as transaction forecasting, and 2) global ones, which consider the general customer behaviour, e.g., predicting successful loan repayment. Unfortunately, maintaining separate models for each task is costly. Therefore, to better facilitate information management, we compared eight state-of-the-art unsupervised methods on 11 tasks in search for a one-size-fits-all solution. Contrastive self-supervised learning methods were demonstrated to excel at global problems, while generative techniques were superior at local tasks. We also introduced a novel approach, which enriches the client's representation by incorporating external information gathered from other clients. Our method outperforms classical models, boosting accuracy by up to 20\%.

Alexander Stepikin, Evgenia Romanenkova, Alexey Zaytsev

Change Point Detection (CPD) aims to identify moments of abrupt distribution shifts in data streams. Real-world high-dimensional CPD remains challenging due to data pattern complexity and violation of common assumptions. Resorting to standalone deep neural networks, the current state-of-the-art detectors have yet to achieve perfect quality. Concurrently, ensembling provides more robust solutions, boosting the performance. In this paper, we investigate ensembles of deep change point detectors and realize that standard prediction aggregation techniques, e.g., averaging, are suboptimal and fail to account for problem peculiarities. Alternatively, we introduce WWAggr -- a novel task-specific method of ensemble aggregation based on the Wasserstein distance. Our procedure is versatile, working effectively with various ensembles of deep CPD models. Moreover, unlike existing solutions, we practically lift a long-standing problem of the decision threshold selection for CPD.

Evgenia Romanenkova, Alexander Stepikin, Matvey Morozov et al.

For sequential data, a change point is a moment of abrupt regime switch in data streams. Such changes appear in different scenarios, including simpler data from sensors and more challenging video surveillance data. We need to detect disorders as fast as possible. Classic approaches for change point detection (CPD) might underperform for semi-structured sequential data because they cannot process its structure without a proper representation. We propose a principled loss function that balances change detection delay and time to a false alarm. It approximates classic rigorous solutions but is differentiable and allows representation learning for deep models. We consider synthetic sequences, real-world data sensors and videos with change points. We carefully labelled available data with change point moments for video data and released it for the first time. Experiments suggest that complex data require meaningful representations tailored for the specificity of the CPD task -- and our approach provides them outperforming considered baselines. For example, for explosion detection in video, the F1 score for our method is 0.53 compared to baseline scores of 0.31 and 0.35.