Vahid Balazadeh

Vahid Balazadeh, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Rahul G. Krishnan

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables), partial identification has been recently explored using tools from deep generative modeling. We propose a new method for partial identification of average treatment effects(ATEs) in general causal graphs using implicit generative models comprising continuous and discrete random variables. Since ATE with continuous treatment is generally non-regular, we leverage the partial derivatives of response functions to define a regular approximation of ATE, a quantity we call uniform average treatment derivative (UATD). We prove that our algorithm converges to tight bounds on ATE in linear structural causal models (SCMs). For nonlinear SCMs, we empirically show that using UATD leads to tighter and more stable bounds than methods that directly optimize the ATE.

Shi-ang Qi, Vahid Balazadeh, Michael Cooper et al.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Hamidreza Kamkari, Vahid Balazadeh, Vahid Zehtab et al.

Estimating the causal structure of observational data is a challenging combinatorial search problem that scales super-exponentially with graph size. Existing methods use continuous relaxations to make this problem computationally tractable but often restrict the data-generating process to additive noise models (ANMs) through explicit or implicit assumptions. We present Order-based Structure Learning with Normalizing Flows (OSLow), a framework that relaxes these assumptions using autoregressive normalizing flows. We leverage the insight that searching over topological orderings is a natural way to enforce acyclicity in structure discovery and propose a novel, differentiable permutation learning method to find such orderings. Through extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate that OSLow outperforms prior baselines and improves performance on the observational Sachs and SynTReN datasets as measured by structural hamming distance and structural intervention distance, highlighting the importance of relaxing the ANM assumption made by existing methods.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Vahid Balazadeh, Stefan Feuerriegel et al.

Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.However, it is unclear whether PFN-based causal estimators provide uncertainty quantification that is consistent with classical frequentist estimators. In this work, we address this gap by analyzing the frequentist consistency of PFN-based estimators for the average treatment effect (ATE). (1) We show that existing PFNs, when interpreted as Bayesian ATE estimators, can exhibit prior-induced confounding bias: the prior is not asymptotically overwritten by data, which, in turn, prevents frequentist consistency. (2) As a remedy, we suggest employing a calibration procedure based on a one-step posterior correction (OSPC). We show that the OSPC helps to restore frequentist consistency and can yield a semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for calibrated PFNs (i.e., both the calibrated PFN-based estimators and the classical semi-parametric efficient estimators converge in distribution with growing data size). (3) Finally, we implement OSPC through tailoring martingale posteriors on top of the PFNs. In this way, we are able to recover functional nuisance posteriors from PFNs, required by the OSPC. In multiple (semi-)synthetic experiments, PFNs calibrated with our martingale posterior OSPC produce ATE uncertainty that (i) asymptotically matches frequentist uncertainty and (ii) is well calibrated in finite samples in comparison to other Bayesian ATE estimators.

Vahid Balazadeh, Hamidreza Kamkari, Valentin Thomas et al.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out of the box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model requires no further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN/).

Christopher Stith, Medha Barath, Vahid Balazadeh et al.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

Vahid Balazadeh, Hamidreza Kamkari, Medha Barath et al.

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound estimands are required -- e.g., Balke-Pearl equations in binary IV -- and even when available, designing accurate estimators requires manual effort tailored to each estimand. While direct Bayesian inference of the causal effects, instead of the bounds, circumvents these challenges, it is often computationally intensive and suffers from high prior sensitivity or under-dispersed posteriors. As a remedy, we introduce IV-ICL, an amortized Bayesian in-context learning method that learns the marginal posterior distribution of the causal effects directly and derives bounds as its quantiles. Unlike standard variational inference that optimizes exclusive KL divergence, amortized Bayesian inference minimizes the expected inclusive KL, a mass-covering objective. We empirically observe that optimizing inclusive KL can recover the entire identified set across diverse data-generating processes, while exclusive-KL (e.g. with variational inference) of the same Bayesian formulation collapses onto a single mode and fails to cover the identified set. We evaluate IV-ICL on synthetic and semi-synthetic IV benchmarks and show it produces intervals that are more reliably valid and more informative compared to efficient semi-parametric, Bayesian, and plug-in baselines, at 20-500x lower inference time. Beyond methodology, we propose a procedure to convert randomized controlled trials into IV benchmarks with provably preserved ground-truth causal effects that enables a more realistic evaluation of partial-identification methods.

Allison Lau, Younwoo Choi, Vahid Balazadeh et al.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is widely used to align Language Models (LMs) with human preferences. However, existing approaches often neglect individual user preferences, leading to suboptimal personalization. We present the Preference Pretrained Transformer (PPT), a novel approach for adaptive personalization using online user feedback. PPT leverages the in-context learning capabilities of transformers to dynamically adapt to individual preferences. Our approach consists of two phases: (1) an offline phase where we train a single policy model using a history-dependent loss function, and (2) an online phase where the model adapts to user preferences through in-context learning. We demonstrate PPT's effectiveness in a contextual bandit setting, showing that it achieves personalized adaptation superior to existing methods while significantly reducing the computational costs. Our results suggest the potential of in-context learning for scalable and efficient personalization in large language models.

Vahid Balazadeh, Michael Cooper, David Pellow et al. · utoronto

We present the design process and findings of the pre-conference workshop at the Machine Learning for Healthcare Conference (2024) entitled Red Teaming Large Language Models for Healthcare, which took place on August 15, 2024. Conference participants, comprising a mix of computational and clinical expertise, attempted to discover vulnerabilities -- realistic clinical prompts for which a large language model (LLM) outputs a response that could cause clinical harm. Red-teaming with clinicians enables the identification of LLM vulnerabilities that may not be recognised by LLM developers lacking clinical expertise. We report the vulnerabilities found, categorise them, and present the results of a replication study assessing the vulnerabilities across all LLMs provided.

Vahid Balazadeh, Mohammadmehdi Ataei, Hyunmin Cheong et al.

Physical reasoning remains a significant challenge for Vision-Language Models (VLMs). This limitation arises from an inability to translate learned knowledge into predictions about physical behavior. Although continual fine-tuning can mitigate this issue, it is expensive for large models and impractical to perform repeatedly for every task. This necessitates the creation of modular and scalable ways to teach VLMs about physical reasoning. To that end, we introduce Physics Context Builders (PCBs), a modular framework where specialized smaller VLMs are fine-tuned to generate detailed physical scene descriptions. These can be used as physical contexts to enhance the reasoning capabilities of larger VLMs. PCBs enable the separation of visual perception from reasoning, allowing us to analyze their relative contributions to physical understanding. We perform experiments on CLEVRER and on Falling Tower, a stability detection dataset with both simulated and real-world scenes, to demonstrate that PCBs provide substantial performance improvements, increasing average accuracy by up to 13.8% on complex physical reasoning tasks. Notably, PCBs also show strong Sim2Real transfer, successfully generalizing from simulated training data to real-world scenes.

Vahid Balazadeh, Keertana Chidambaram, Viet Nguyen et al.

We study the problem of online sequential decision-making given auxiliary demonstrations from experts who made their decisions based on unobserved contextual information. These demonstrations can be viewed as solving related but slightly different problems than what the learner faces. This setting arises in many application domains, such as self-driving cars, healthcare, and finance, where expert demonstrations are made using contextual information, which is not recorded in the data available to the learning agent. We model the problem as zero-shot meta-reinforcement learning with an unknown distribution over the unobserved contextual variables and a Bayesian regret minimization objective, where the unobserved variables are encoded as parameters with an unknown prior. We propose the Experts-as-Priors algorithm (ExPerior), an empirical Bayes approach that utilizes expert data to establish an informative prior distribution over the learner's decision-making problem. This prior distribution enables the application of any Bayesian approach for online decision-making, such as posterior sampling. We demonstrate that our strategy surpasses existing behaviour cloning, online, and online-offline baselines for multi-armed bandits, Markov decision processes (MDPs), and partially observable MDPs, showcasing the broad reach and utility of ExPerior in using expert demonstrations across different decision-making setups.

Vahid Balazadeh, Abir De, Adish Singla et al.

Reinforcement learning agents have been mostly developed and evaluated under the assumption that they will operate in a fully autonomous manner -- they will take all actions. In this work, our goal is to develop algorithms that, by learning to switch control between agents, allow existing reinforcement learning agents to operate under different automation levels. To this end, we first formally define the problem of learning to switch control among agents in a team via a 2-layer Markov decision process. Then, we develop an online learning algorithm that uses upper confidence bounds on the agents' policies and the environment's transition probabilities to find a sequence of switching policies. The total regret of our algorithm with respect to the optimal switching policy is sublinear in the number of learning steps and, whenever multiple teams of agents operate in a similar environment, our algorithm greatly benefits from maintaining shared confidence bounds for the environments' transition probabilities and it enjoys a better regret bound than problem-agnostic algorithms. Simulation experiments in an obstacle avoidance task illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, by exploiting the specific structure of the problem, our proposed algorithm is superior to problem-agnostic algorithms.