Shah Muhammad Hamdi

Peiyu Li, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi, Shah Muhammad Hamdi

With the rising need of interpretable machine learning methods, there is a necessity for a rise in human effort to provide diverse explanations of the influencing factors of the model decisions. To improve the trust and transparency of AI-based systems, the EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) field has emerged. The XAI paradigm is bifurcated into two main categories: feature attribution and counterfactual explanation methods. While feature attribution methods are based on explaining the reason behind a model decision, counterfactual explanation methods discover the smallest input changes that will result in a different decision. In this paper, we aim at building trust and transparency in time series models by using motifs to generate counterfactual explanations. We propose Motif-Guided Counterfactual Explanation (MG-CF), a novel model that generates intuitive post-hoc counterfactual explanations that make full use of important motifs to provide interpretive information in decision-making processes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort that leverages motifs to guide the counterfactual explanation generation. We validated our model using five real-world time-series datasets from the UCR repository. Our experimental results show the superiority of MG-CF in balancing all the desirable counterfactual explanations properties in comparison with other competing state-of-the-art baselines.

Omar Bahri, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi, Shah Muhammad Hamdi

As machine learning and deep learning models have become highly prevalent in a multitude of domains, the main reservation in their adoption for decision-making processes is their black-box nature. The Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) paradigm has gained a lot of momentum lately due to its ability to reduce models opacity. XAI methods have not only increased stakeholders' trust in the decision process but also helped developers ensure its fairness. Recent efforts have been invested in creating transparent models and post-hoc explanations. However, fewer methods have been developed for time series data, and even less when it comes to multivariate datasets. In this work, we take advantage of the inherent interpretability of shapelets to develop a model agnostic multivariate time series (MTS) counterfactual explanation algorithm. Counterfactuals can have a tremendous impact on making black-box models explainable by indicating what changes have to be performed on the input to change the final decision. We test our approach on a real-life solar flare prediction dataset and prove that our approach produces high-quality counterfactuals. Moreover, a comparison to the only MTS counterfactual generation algorithm shows that, in addition to being visually interpretable, our explanations are superior in terms of proximity, sparsity, and plausibility.

MohammadReza EskandariNasab, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Accurate solar flare prediction is crucial due to the significant risks that intense solar flares pose to astronauts, space equipment, and satellite communication systems. Our research enhances solar flare prediction by utilizing advanced data preprocessing and classification methods on a multivariate time series-based dataset of photospheric magnetic field parameters. First, our study employs a novel preprocessing pipeline that includes missing value imputation, normalization, balanced sampling, near decision boundary sample removal, and feature selection to significantly boost prediction accuracy. Second, we integrate contrastive learning with a GRU regression model to develop a novel classifier, termed ContReg, which employs dual learning methodologies, thereby further enhancing prediction performance. To validate the effectiveness of our preprocessing pipeline, we compare and demonstrate the performance gain of each step, and to demonstrate the efficacy of the ContReg classifier, we compare its performance to that of sequence-based deep learning architectures, machine learning models, and findings from previous studies. Our results illustrate exceptional True Skill Statistic (TSS) scores, surpassing previous methods and highlighting the critical role of precise data preprocessing and classifier development in time series-based solar flare prediction.

MohammadReza EskandariNasab, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Generating time series data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) presents several prevalent challenges, such as slow convergence, information loss in embedding spaces, instability, and performance variability depending on the series length. To tackle these obstacles, we introduce a robust framework aimed at addressing and mitigating these issues effectively. This advanced framework integrates the benefits of an Autoencoder-generated embedding space with the adversarial training dynamics of GANs. This framework benefits from a time series-based loss function and oversight from a supervisory network, both of which capture the stepwise conditional distributions of the data effectively. The generator functions within the latent space, while the discriminator offers essential feedback based on the feature space. Moreover, we introduce an early generation algorithm and an improved neural network architecture to enhance stability and ensure effective generalization across both short and long time series. Through joint training, our framework consistently outperforms existing benchmarks, generating high-quality time series data across a range of real and synthetic datasets with diverse characteristics.

Santosh Chapagain, MohammadReza EskandariNasab, Onur Vural et al.

Solar activity, including solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms can significantly impact satellites, aviation, power grids, data centers, and space missions. Extreme solar events can cause substantial economic damage with limited advance warning, underscoring the importance of early warning systems, accurate forecasting, and effective education in space science. Although large language models (LLMs) perform well on general tasks, they often lack domain specific knowledge and pedagogical capability to clearly explain complex space science concepts. We introduce SolarGPT-QA, a question answering system based on a domain adapted large language model built on the LLaMA-3 base model. The model is trained using scientific literature and large scale question and answer data generated with GPT-4 and refined using Grok-3 in a student friendly storytelling style. To evaluate response quality, we employ an LLM-as-judge evaluation framework, where a strong reference model assesses generated answers using structured criteria including scientific accuracy, clarity, completeness, and pedagogical effectiveness. Results show that SolarGPT-QA performs strongly relative to general purpose models in zero shot settings and achieves competitive performance compared to instruction tuned models for educational explanations in space weather and heliophysics. Ablation studies indicate that combining domain adaptive pretraining with fine tuning is important for balancing scientific accuracy and educational effectiveness.

Spiridon Kasapis, Pouya Hosseinzadeh, Kathryn Whitman et al.

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

Santosh Chapagain, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Backdoor attacks are a significant threat to the performance and integrity of pre-trained language models. Although such models are routinely fine-tuned for downstream NLP tasks, recent work shows they remain vulnerable to backdoor attacks that survive vanilla fine-tuning. These attacks are difficult to defend because end users typically lack knowledge of the attack triggers. Such attacks consist of stealthy malicious triggers introduced through subtle syntactic or stylistic manipulations, which can bypass traditional detection and remain in the model, making post-hoc purification essential. In this study, we explore whether attention-head pruning can mitigate these threats without any knowledge of the trigger or access to a clean reference model. To this end, we design and implement six pruning-based strategies: (i) gradient-based pruning, (ii) layer-wise variance pruning, (iii) gradient-based pruning with structured L1/L2 sparsification, (iv) randomized ensemble pruning, (v) reinforcement-learning-guided pruning, and (vi) Bayesian uncertainty pruning. Each method iteratively removes the least informative heads while monitoring validation accuracy to avoid over-pruning. Experimental evaluation shows that gradient-based pruning performs best while defending the syntactic triggers, whereas reinforcement learning and Bayesian pruning better withstand stylistic attacks.

S. Chapagain, Y. Zhao, T. K. Rohleen et al.

Individuals who identify as sexual and gender minorities, including lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and others (LGBTQ+) are more likely to experience poorer health than their heterosexual and cisgender counterparts. One primary source that drives these health disparities is minority stress (i.e., chronic and social stressors unique to LGBTQ+ communities' experiences adapting to the dominant culture). This stress is frequently expressed in LGBTQ+ users' posts on social media platforms. However, these expressions are not just straightforward manifestations of minority stress. They involve linguistic complexity (e.g., idiom or lexical diversity), rendering them challenging for many traditional natural language processing methods to detect. In this work, we designed a hybrid model using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), a pre-trained deep language model to improve the classification performance of minority stress detection. We experimented with our model on a benchmark social media dataset for minority stress detection (LGBTQ+ MiSSoM+). The dataset is comprised of 5,789 human-annotated Reddit posts from LGBTQ+ subreddits. Our approach enables the extraction of hidden linguistic nuances through pretraining on a vast amount of raw data, while also engaging in transductive learning to jointly develop representations for both labeled training data and unlabeled test data. The RoBERTa-GCN model achieved an accuracy of 0.86 and an F1 score of 0.86, surpassing the performance of other baseline models in predicting LGBTQ+ minority stress. Improved prediction of minority stress expressions on social media could lead to digital health interventions to improve the wellbeing of LGBTQ+ people-a community with high rates of stress-sensitive health problems.

Santosh Chapagain, Cory J Cascalheira, Shah Muhammad Hamdi et al.

Individuals from sexual and gender minority groups experience disproportionately high rates of poor health outcomes and mental disorders compared to their heterosexual and cisgender counterparts, largely as a consequence of minority stress as described by Meyer's (2003) model. This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of transformer-based architectures for detecting minority stress in online discourse. We benchmark multiple transformer models including ELECTRA, BERT, RoBERTa, and BART against traditional machine learning baselines and graph-augmented variants. We further assess zero-shot and few-shot learning paradigms to assess their applicability on underrepresented datasets. Experiments are conducted on the two largest publicly available Reddit corpora for minority stress detection, comprising 12,645 and 5,789 posts, and are repeated over five random seeds to ensure robustness. Our results demonstrate that integrating graph structure consistently improves detection performance across transformer-only models and that supervised fine-tuning with relational context outperforms zero and few-shot approaches. Theoretical analysis reveals that modeling social connectivity and conversational context via graph augmentation sharpens the models' ability to identify key linguistic markers such as identity concealment, internalized stigma, and calls for support, suggesting that graph-enhanced transformers offer the most reliable foundation for digital health interventions and public health policy.

Peiyu Li, Omar Bahri, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi et al.

Over the past decade, multivariate time series classification has received great attention. Machine learning (ML) models for multivariate time series classification have made significant strides and achieved impressive success in a wide range of applications and tasks. The challenge of many state-of-the-art ML models is a lack of transparency and interpretability. In this work, we introduce M-CELS, a counterfactual explanation model designed to enhance interpretability in multidimensional time series classification tasks. Our experimental validation involves comparing M-CELS with leading state-of-the-art baselines, utilizing seven real-world time-series datasets from the UEA repository. The results demonstrate the superior performance of M-CELS in terms of validity, proximity, and sparsity, reinforcing its effectiveness in providing transparent insights into the decisions of machine learning models applied to multivariate time series data.

MohammadReza EskandariNasab, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Current Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)-based approaches for time series generation face challenges such as suboptimal convergence, information loss in embedding spaces, and instability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce an advanced framework that integrates the advantages of an autoencoder-generated embedding space with the adversarial training dynamics of GANs. This method employs two discriminators: one to specifically guide the generator and another to refine both the autoencoder's and generator's output. Additionally, our framework incorporates a novel autoencoder-based loss function and supervision from a teacher-forcing supervisor network, which captures the stepwise conditional distributions of the data. The generator operates within the latent space, while the two discriminators work on latent and feature spaces separately, providing crucial feedback to both the generator and the autoencoder. By leveraging this dual-discriminator approach, we minimize information loss in the embedding space. Through joint training, our framework excels at generating high-fidelity time series data, consistently outperforming existing state-of-the-art benchmarks both qualitatively and quantitatively across a range of real and synthetic multivariate time series datasets.

Onur Vural, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

In heliophysics research, predicting solar flares is crucial due to their potential to impact both space-based systems and Earth's infrastructure substantially. Magnetic field data from solar active regions, recorded by solar imaging observatories, are transformed into multivariate time series to enable solar flare prediction using temporal window-based analysis. In the realm of multivariate time series-driven solar flare prediction, addressing severe class imbalance with effective strategies for multivariate time series representation learning is key to developing robust predictive models. Traditional methods often struggle with overfitting to the majority class in prediction tasks where major solar flares are infrequent. This work presents EXCON, a contrastive representation learning framework designed to enhance classification performance amidst such imbalances. EXCON operates through four stages: obtaining core features from multivariate time series data; selecting distinctive contrastive representations for each class to maximize inter-class separation; training a temporal feature embedding module with a custom extreme reconstruction loss to minimize intra-class variation; and applying a classifier to the learned embeddings for robust classification. The proposed method leverages contrastive learning principles to map similar instances closer in the feature space while distancing dissimilar ones, a strategy not extensively explored in solar flare prediction tasks. This approach not only addresses class imbalance but also offers a versatile solution applicable to univariate and multivariate time series across binary and multiclass classification problems. Experimental results, including evaluations on the benchmark solar flare dataset and multiple time series archive datasets with binary and multiclass labels, demonstrate EXCON's efficacy in enhancing classification performance.

MohammadReza EskandariNasab, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Data augmentation can significantly enhance the performance of machine learning tasks by addressing data scarcity and improving generalization. However, generating time series data presents unique challenges. A model must not only learn a probability distribution that reflects the real data distribution but also capture the conditional distribution at each time step to preserve the inherent temporal dependencies. To address these challenges, we introduce AVATAR, a framework that combines Adversarial Autoencoders (AAE) with Autoregressive Learning to achieve both objectives. Specifically, our technique integrates the autoencoder with a supervisor and introduces a novel supervised loss to assist the decoder in learning the temporal dynamics of time series data. Additionally, we propose another innovative loss function, termed distribution loss, to guide the encoder in more efficiently aligning the aggregated posterior of the autoencoder's latent representation with a prior Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, our framework employs a joint training mechanism to simultaneously train all networks using a combined loss, thereby fulfilling the dual objectives of time series generation. We evaluate our technique across a variety of time series datasets with diverse characteristics. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvements in both the quality and practical utility of the generated data, as assessed by various qualitative and quantitative metrics.

Peiyu Li, Omar Bahri, Pouya Hosseinzadeh et al.

As the demand for interpretable machine learning approaches continues to grow, there is an increasing necessity for human involvement in providing informative explanations for model decisions. This is necessary for building trust and transparency in AI-based systems, leading to the emergence of the Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) field. Recently, a novel counterfactual explanation model, CELS, has been introduced. CELS learns a saliency map for the interest of an instance and generates a counterfactual explanation guided by the learned saliency map. While CELS represents the first attempt to exploit learned saliency maps not only to provide intuitive explanations for the reason behind the decision made by the time series classifier but also to explore post hoc counterfactual explanations, it exhibits limitations in terms of high validity for the sake of ensuring high proximity and sparsity. In this paper, we present an enhanced approach that builds upon CELS. While the original model achieved promising results in terms of sparsity and proximity, it faced limitations in validity. Our proposed method addresses this limitation by removing mask normalization to provide more informative and valid counterfactual explanations. Through extensive experimentation on datasets from various domains, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms the CELS model, achieving higher validity and producing more informative explanations.

Onur Vural, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Multivariate time series classification is increasingly investigated in space weather research as a means to predict intense solar flare events, which can cause widespread disruptions across modern technological systems. Magnetic field measurements of solar active regions are converted into structured multivariate time series, enabling predictive modeling across segmented observation windows. However, the inherently imbalanced nature of solar flare occurrences, where intense flares are rare compared to minor flare events, presents a significant barrier to effective learning. To address this challenge, we propose a novel Global Cross-Time Attention Fusion (GCTAF) architecture, a transformer-based model to enhance long-range temporal modeling. Unlike traditional self-attention mechanisms that rely solely on local interactions within time series, GCTAF injects a set of learnable cross-attentive global tokens that summarize salient temporal patterns across the entire sequence. These tokens are refined through cross-attention with the input sequence and fused back into the temporal representation, enabling the model to identify globally significant, non-contiguous time points that are critical for flare prediction. This mechanism functions as a dynamic attention-driven temporal summarizer that augments the model's capacity to capture discriminative flare-related dynamics. We evaluate our approach on the benchmark solar flare dataset and show that GCTAF effectively detects intense flares and improves predictive performance, demonstrating that refining transformer-based architectures presents a high-potential alternative for solar flare prediction tasks.