Mustafa Baniodeh

Kan Chen, Runzhou Ge, Hang Qiu et al.

Widely adopted motion forecasting datasets substitute the observed sensory inputs with higher-level abstractions such as 3D boxes and polylines. These sparse shapes are inferred through annotating the original scenes with perception systems' predictions. Such intermediate representations tie the quality of the motion forecasting models to the performance of computer vision models. Moreover, the human-designed explicit interfaces between perception and motion forecasting typically pass only a subset of the semantic information present in the original sensory input. To study the effect of these modular approaches, design new paradigms that mitigate these limitations, and accelerate the development of end-to-end motion forecasting models, we augment the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) with large-scale, high-quality, diverse LiDAR data for the motion forecasting task. The new augmented dataset WOMD-LiDAR consists of over 100,000 scenes that each spans 20 seconds, consisting of well-synchronized and calibrated high quality LiDAR point clouds captured across a range of urban and suburban geographies (https://waymo.com/open/data/motion/). Compared to Waymo Open Dataset (WOD), WOMD-LiDAR dataset contains 100x more scenes. Furthermore, we integrate the LiDAR data into the motion forecasting model training and provide a strong baseline. Experiments show that the LiDAR data brings improvement in the motion forecasting task. We hope that WOMD-LiDAR will provide new opportunities for boosting end-to-end motion forecasting models.

Mustafa Baniodeh, Kratarth Goel, Scott Ettinger et al.

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.