Ger Koole

Luis Pedro Silvestrin, Harry van Zanten, Mark Hoogendoorn et al.

With the development of new sensors and monitoring devices, more sources of data become available to be used as inputs for machine learning models. These can on the one hand help to improve the accuracy of a model. On the other hand, combining these new inputs with historical data remains a challenge that has not yet been studied in enough detail. In this work, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that combines new and historical data with different input dimensions. This approach is easy to implement, efficient, with computational complexity equivalent to the ordinary least-squares method, and requires no hyperparameter tuning, making it straightforward to apply when the new data is limited. Different from other approaches, we provide a rigorous theoretical study of its robustness, showing that it cannot be outperformed by a baseline that utilizes only the new data. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on 9 real-life datasets, outperforming the linear DSFT, another linear transfer learning algorithm, and performing comparably to non-linear DSFT.

Rik van Leeuwen, Ger Koole

Within hospitality, marketing departments use segmentation to create tailored strategies to ensure personalized marketing. This study provides a data-driven approach by segmenting guest profiles via hierarchical clustering, based on an extensive set of features. The industry requires understandable outcomes that contribute to adaptability for marketing departments to make data-driven decisions and ultimately driving profit. A marketing department specified a business question that guides the unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Features of guests change over time; therefore, there is a probability that guests transition from one segment to another. The purpose of the study is to provide steps in the process from raw data to actionable insights, which serve as a guideline for how hospitality companies can adopt an algorithmic approach.

Daniel Hopman, Ger Koole, Rob van der Mei

Demand forecasting is extremely important in revenue management. After all, it is one of the inputs to an optimisation method which aim is to maximize revenue. Most, if not all, forecasting methods use historical data to forecast the future, disregarding the "why". In this paper, we combine data from multiple sources, including competitor data, pricing, social media, safety and airline reviews. Next, we study five competitor pricing movements that, we hypothesize, affect customer behavior when presented a set of itineraries. Using real airline data for ten different OD-pairs and by means of Extreme Gradient Boosting, we show that customer behavior can be categorized into price-sensitive, schedule-sensitive and comfort ODs. Through a simulation study, we show that this model produces forecasts that result in higher revenue than traditional, time series forecasts.